1, futures positioning of hard winter white wheat
The delivery standard of hard winter white wheat futures contract in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is the second kind of hard winter white wheat in the national standard (GB1351-1999). Wheat is divided into nine categories according to national standards, and hard winter white wheat is one of them.
2. Futures positioning of high-quality strong gluten wheat.
The first-class products of high-quality strong gluten wheat futures can be on par with Canadian wheat (note: the consistency of internal quality of each batch of wheat in China is not as good as that of imported wheat), and the second-class products are slightly worse. The quality of American wheat is inferior to that of American wheat.
(2) Contract delivery standard
The delivery standards of hard winter white wheat and high-quality strong gluten wheat are different (see the second part of this document for details), and each contract delivery standard is very important, which directly affects the number of warehouse receipts.
1, delivery standard of hard winter white wheat futures contract
Hard winter white wheat is subject to national standards, and its quality indexes are manually tested except bulk density and moisture, which is convenient to operate. After professional training, the inspectors in the delivery warehouse can master the inspection technology, so both the pre-inspection in the warehouse before warehousing and the sampling inspection in the warehouse during warehousing are qualified, and generally there will be no quality problems after palletizing.
2, high quality strong gluten wheat futures contract delivery standard
High-quality and strong gluten wheat shall comply with the enterprise standard (higher than GB1351-KLOC-0/999), and refer to the imported national standard (GB/T 17892- 1999) when formulating the standard. More importantly, it is close to the development of spot market and the requirements of flour processing enterprises.
Special note: during the operation of the two contracts, it is found that most of the warehouse receipt varieties of strong wheat overlap with hard wheat.
In terms of price, most of them are the same price at the time of acquisition, but there are two prices in the sales link, and the price difference tends to expand. The reason for this is that both are excellent varieties of wheat, that is, high-quality wheat in the spot sense. During the period from harvesting (winter wheat) in June to the end of August every year, the post-ripening period of wheat has not passed, the internal quality is still unstable, and the inspection cost is high. The purchaser cannot determine the internal quality, so it is impossible to give farmers high prices. But after the post-ripening period, the quality is stable, and those with high internal quality can fetch a good price.
With the development of the futures market, those that meet the standards of strong wheat, hard wheat and hard wheat will form different grades of prices. Achieving different standards is related to seeds, field management, local soil conditions and climate. With the help of futures price signals, the local grain department will guide farmers to adjust the wheat variety structure according to local conditions. Once the quality of wheat is improved, farmers' awareness of futures prices will increase, and the expected annualized expected income will naturally increase.
(3) Output, circulation and number of subjects
1, yield, circulation and target quantity of hard winter white wheat
China's wheat production is very large, accounting for a quarter of the world's wheat production. However, because it is a big agricultural country, farmers have a large stock of rations, and the real circulation is not very large. The circulation and qualified quantity of hard winter white wheat are also limited. The following is the calculation made by the National Grain and Oil Information Center according to the output in 2003 for reference.
2. Yield, circulation and target quantity of high-quality strong gluten wheat
In recent years, while the total planting area and total output of wheat in China have obviously decreased, the planting area of high-quality wheat in China has increased rapidly. In 2000 (i.e. 1999 winter wheat and 2000 spring wheat, the same below), the planting area increased by 98% compared with 1999, and the planting area in 5438+0 in 2006 increased by 3965438 compared with 2000. It is estimated that it will reach 26.3 million tons in 2003.
(4) Outer disk
The first-class delivery products of high-quality strong gluten wheat varieties can be in line with international standards. With the increase of import and export volume in China, the influence of external market on high-quality and strong gluten wheat futures will gradually increase.
There are three exchanges in the United States that trade wheat futures, and their varieties are:
The delivery grades of contract objects of Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) are: No.2 soft red winter wheat and No.2 hard red winter wheat; Brown northern spring wheat No.2 and its equivalent No.2 northern spring wheat. The price difference of substitutes shall be determined by the exchange. The wet gluten of CBOT soft red winter wheat and hard red winter wheat is not up to the standard of strong gluten wheat in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and substitutes can.
Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE) contract delivery grade: No.2 and above northern spring wheat with protein content of 100% and above. 13% protein content can be delivered at a discount. The products delivered by MGE can meet the standard of strong gluten wheat in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange.
Kansas Futures Exchange (KCBT) contract subject matter delivery grade: No.2 hard red winter wheat. If the delivery grade is No.2, the contract price shall prevail; If it is 1, the premium is cents/bushel; If it is No.3, the premium is 3 cents/bushel. The wet gluten of KCBT hard red winter wheat is mostly less than 30%, which does not meet the standard of strong gluten wheat in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange.
(5) Import and export
Canada, the United States and Australia are the main wheat producers in the world, with output of 26 million tons, 60 million tons and 2 1 10,000 tons respectively. The output of hard red winter and hard red spring wheat in these countries has a great influence on the world wheat price, including the price of high-quality strong gluten wheat in China.
The actual import volume of high-quality strong gluten wheat in China often changes due to political or economic reasons. Before the mid-1990s, China was an important wheat importer in the world, with an average annual import exceeding100000 tons. Since 1996, China's wheat has been harvested for several years, the production capacity has been gradually improved, and the number of wheat imports has decreased year by year. After China's entry into WTO, wheat imports will gradually increase, but this does not mean that foreign wheat will flood into the domestic market in large quantities.
On the one hand, the normal global wheat trade volume is about 654.38 billion tons. If China imports a large amount of wheat, it will inevitably affect the international market price; On the other hand, if the domestic wheat market price drops sharply because of a large number of imported wheat, it is entirely possible for the state to carry out necessary administrative intervention. In addition, with the continuous improvement of the free trade degree of wheat after China's entry into WTO, the price of domestic high-quality wheat will be in line with the international market, and the price change direction will be consistent with the international market price. Therefore, in order to grasp the price trend of high-quality strong gluten wheat, it is necessary to know and master the changes of world wheat output, price level, import policy and import volume in time.