Fundamentally speaking, the United States suffered the worst drought in 50 years, which damaged the yield of corn crops. Prior to this, CBOT corn prices rose sharply, and Chicago corn futures price index rose by 49. 1% from June to late August. According to the Zhou Du data released on September 20th, the worst drought in the United States in more than half a century in the week of September 18 increased from 64% in the last week to 65% in the northern midwest and the northern Great Plains, but the drought in some parts of the south-central United States eased. Andy Karst, a meteorologist from the World Weather Company, said: "There will be a little rain in the central and western regions, but at least the weather seems very favorable in the next two weeks." Generally speaking, the weather conditions are expected to be favorable for the harvest of corn crops in the United States.
At the end of June, the estimated duty-paid price of corn imported from the United States in China was as high as 2962 yuan/ton, which once boosted the domestic corn price. However, with the arrival of rainfall in August and September, the yield of corn gradually stabilized. Due to the early sowing of corn in the United States this year, the current harvest rate is 26%, compared with 8% in the same period last year, with an average of 9% in five years, setting a record for the past two years. Therefore, in the context of accelerating market supply, corn futures prices have declined to some extent. At present, the duty-paid price of corn in China has dropped to 2720 yuan/ton, which is lower than that in 200 yuan at a higher point, which has also caused some pressure on the domestic corn market.
Recently, affected by the upcoming listing of new grain, the domestic spot price of corn has been falling continuously by 10-30 yuan/ton, of which the northeast producing area has fallen by 10-20 yuan/ton, the northern port price has fallen by 30 yuan/ton, and the southern selling area price has fallen by 20 yuan/ton. The decline in the price of old corn has also put some pressure on the price of new corn. At present, a small amount of new corn has been harvested in North China, and the northeast corn will be listed in batches after 165438+ 10. Although the previous armyworm and wind disaster had a great impact on the corn in Northeast China, at present, the affected areas are mainly concentrated in Changchun, Jilin, and the yield reduction is less than 10%, and other places are still good.