At this time, many farmers are entangled again, but you are going up. Don't stay, I'm going to sell pigs.
This is not the case for farmers. It's good to keep rising, but is it in line with market rules? Therefore, we can't look at the ups and downs by feeling, but based on the current pig market factors and comprehensive analysis, in order to better grasp the market dynamics.
Previously, pig prices rose against the trend for several days. Considering the two main factors "supply side and consumption side" that affect the live pig market, the supply side is really exerting its strength, which means that the breeding side is unwilling to sell at a low price to help increase. At the same time, the government has been purchasing and storing pork, which has strong confidence in supporting the market, and some pig enterprises are not enthusiastic about selling pigs. The rainy weather in the north and south, especially in the south, is still shrouded in rain, the transportation of pigs is blocked, and slaughtering enterprises collect pigs.
Although it is rainy in the south and north, and there are some extreme weather, Henan and the surrounding provinces and cities in central China are not like this, but are "extremely hot" again and again. The highest temperature in many places exceeds 40℃, which has a great impact on agriculture and farms in this area, and also restricts the consumption of terminal pork. The sluggish receipt of goods by downstream traders has led to a gradual lack of rebound in pig prices and insufficient stamina. At the same time, with the hot and humid weather, there are still many pigs at risk of being crushed to death.
According to the analysis of professionals in the industry, since April this year, the price of live pigs has rebounded by about 30% from the low level, and has now rebounded to the vicinity of the average cost line of pig breeding.
With the rising price of live pigs, farming began to turn losses into profits. According to the national average cost price of pig breeding per kilogram 15.4 yuan, the profit of a commodity pig head recently sold by farmers is around 60 yuan, and the market generally believes that the most difficult period of pig breeding has passed.
In the future, because the basic production capacity of domestic pigs has been reduced to a certain extent, with the gradual increase of pork consumption in the second half of the year, the price of live pigs is expected to rebound as a whole.
From the perspective of futures market, the contract prices of live pigs due in September this year 1 1 and next year 1 have gradually increased, reflecting the market's expectation of price recovery in the later period.
However, we should also see that the current pig production capacity is reasonable and abundant, and the number of fertile sows in the country is in the green range of production capacity. It is almost impossible for the price of live pigs to rise sharply during the African swine fever in previous years. It is suggested that according to the actual situation of pig farms, we should consider the feeding risks and management benefits, sell on rallies at the right time, and reasonably leave bags for safety.
The systematic monitoring of pig price shows that among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs has increased by 2 and decreased by 22, and the stable areas account for 85% of the total monitoring. The average price of live pigs monitored nationwide was the lowest 8. 12 yuan/kg, the highest was 8.32 yuan/kg, and the overall average price of live pigs was 8.22 yuan/kg, which was 0.065438+ lower than the national average price yesterday.
Judging from the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises, the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises is still too large, and the enthusiasm of farmers for slaughter is poor. The performance of pigs in some slaughter enterprises in the north is slow, and the local pig price has a certain sense of dark rise, and the price constraint of white pigs is still outstanding.
Some slaughter enterprises in Central China and East China have taken the initiative to reduce the price of pig products, which has a certain impact on the market.
The market sentiment is general, and the mood of maintaining stability is still outstanding.
The price of pigs in the breeding group decreased, but it was weak. The downward trend of pig prices in aquaculture groups in southwest China is obvious. The pig market in the leading group showed a rise and fall adjustment, and the overall pig price showed a certain decline. Traders are generally enthusiastic about bidding, and the mood of pig price adjustment is general.
Forecast of pig price trend tomorrow: Based on the recent analysis of pig market factors, the pig price lacks the motivation to continue to rise after several days of continuous rise, and still needs some opportunities to stimulate. At the same time, because the terminal farmers are reluctant to sell, the bullish sentiment is still there. It is expected that pig prices will continue to show a situation of "big stability and small adjustment" tomorrow.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome everyone to exchange views on the hog market, grasp the market dynamics, collect and share, and tomorrow will be more exciting. I believe that with your help, the price of pigs will rise again.