The margin leverage effect of futures trading makes the price fluctuation artificially amplified, and the limitation of contract expiration makes it impossible to hold positions forever. When the position direction runs counter to the market movement, the price of time will become more and more expensive.
In the case of unfavorable transactions, if you don't take correct actions in time, you will often face such a situation:
(1) The investment deposit has just been decomposed;
(2) The book profit may be completely lost;
(3) All capital is facing extinction because of contrarian trend.
It can be seen that if you want to survive, you must learn to stop loss. Stop loss should be set when there is a trading signal in the trading system, and tracked and promoted in some way during the trading process.
The width of the stop loss is mainly in line with the normal fluctuation range of the market, and sometimes certain time conditions are attached. As a long-term trader, it is necessary to avoid touching the stop loss frequently, so as to ensure the effective operation of the operation plan under the premise of correct decision.
Stop loss is giving up. Giving up may be an opportunity, but it is more likely to be a disaster. Stop loss has two advantages:
(1) The approach time is not right, so it is impossible to confirm whether we made a directional mistake when we decided to leave, but we must choose to leave. On the one hand, avoid the possibility of major mistakes. On the other hand, it is to find a safer and better supply opportunity for the entry point again.
(2) directional judgment error, in the case of contrarian, if you can't play in time, then time will be the fatal blow to the transaction! The only way to avoid this situation is to stop loss in time. So stop loss is always right or wrong. It is always wrong to die, and it is also wrong to be right.
It is a common problem for many people to value immediate interests instead of making up their minds to stop losses. However, if investors are full of confidence in the future, then giving up now will become insignificant, because time will bring wealth to successful investors.
Loss is temporary, necessary and an inseparable part of success. Giving up money temporarily is to save financial strength and to get more and better returns in the future. It can be seen that stop loss is the way to survive, the "pilot's parachute" and the embodiment of the market first principle.
Here, it should be emphasized that the conditions of entry and exit are not equal. The reason for entering the site must be fully clear. However, the appearance is different, and the reason can be simple and hazy.
If you try to find enough reasons to leave, then the transaction will get into trouble because of delay; Excessive pursuit of profit maximization is easy for us to challenge the limits of the market and move towards greed.
It is necessary to leave room and ignore the follow-up market with low marginal profit, so that investment can be invincible. Many people don't understand this and always want to find the best way to close their positions by studying the market, but so far no one knows. Why? Because there is no answer. The answer is not in the market, but in everyone's heart. The pursuit of perfection is the expression of greed, and the imperfect way of leaving is the most perfect, so that it is possible to survive and develop.
In view of this, the mechanical trading system can do:
First of all, it can relieve the psychological pressure of traders while eliminating many emotional troubles. Traders only need to enter the market according to the signal of the mechanical trading system during operation, so there is naturally no emotional interference in the trading process and no great psychological pressure.
Secondly, it helps to control risks, and trading with emotional speculation or so-called "intuition" can only lead to greater risks. However, trading according to the mechanical trading system only needs to bear limited risks (executing stop-loss prices). Obviously, there is an essential difference between the two.
Finally, the consistency of the use method is ensured. Only by using the same method continuously can we reflect the winning rate, and make up for the miscalculation by executing the stop loss order to maximize the overall profit.
2. Fund management in the transaction
The adjustment of margin is the freedom given to investors by the futures market. This free choice of authority will bring the most direct and full exposure of human nature, and people always have a strong tendency to use enough margin. Futures is not an ordinary financial instrument, and its leverage is like "nuclear finance".
Therefore, the high use of margin will cause huge fluctuations in investment profits and losses, which may lead to both capital explosion and rapid destruction. This abnormal phenomenon is driven by the devil, which is not the correct investment method, and its final outcome is eliminated by the market without exception.
There is an analogy to illustrate:
If the car is driving on the expressway at the speed of 120 yards, if it is safe and comfortable, the probability of accidents will increase exponentially with each increase of 10 yards. When the vehicle speed reaches more than 220 yards, the possibility of an accident increases to 100% regardless of driving skills.
From this perspective, freedom is not all a good thing, and people need self-discipline more. As far as fund management is concerned, there should be a statistical balance between freedom and security.
Practical experience shows that when the capital utilization rate reaches 30%, it is most suitable for futures trading. Although the investor's technical level can appropriately adjust this ratio, the utilization rate of 30% is the benchmark principle of fund management.
In actual transactions, we should establish the idea of "safety first, profit second". It can be said that the fund management is a concentrated reflection of the inner world of traders. Good fund management helps investors to maintain a harmonious relationship with the market, helps traders to give full play to their own level, and helps to improve the quality rather than quantity of transactions.
In fact, the money invested is a seed, and all we have to do is wait patiently-take root, sprout, blossom and bear rich fruits.
However, in practice, the most common mistake people make is to get quick success and instant benefit, and always try to increase the investment in margin, hoping to achieve excellent results in a short time. This impetuous mentality, which is eager for success, leads to the shadow of danger, fear and failure, and never leaves it until it is completely defeated.
The secret of making money lies in time and mentality, and in investors waiting patiently and sharing trends. The opening of space takes time, and time is the most critical factor.
Step 3 wait in the transaction
For investors who gamble in the ocean of futures, waiting means a principle, a road and confidence. In my opinion, the person waiting is at least awake. Rest and waiting are a positive defensive state.
Many investors don't understand its inner meaning. The reason why we do nothing is that "no transaction" may be the best transaction, a kind of abandonment and a manifestation of obedience and respect for the objective market. It can be seen that learning to rest and wait is an important part of determining whether the investment can win.
We need to understand that the market is the protagonist in market changes, and the performance of investors is only an insignificant supporting role. We should leave enough time and space for the market, instead of being busy by ourselves; Wait for the market to give a clear direction, otherwise, the lively ending can only be empty.
The crux of the problem is: Why are people always busy? This is the result of desire. When people focus on money instead of the market and themselves, they always imagine the market happening, hoping to seize it instead of losing it. But it is more important to find that there is no market. Because only by recognizing this, can we understand the value of rest and waiting.
There is a saying in Sun Tzu's Art of War: "If the road does not help, the army does not attack, the city does not attack, and the ground does not fight, your life will not be affected." The reason for inaction is for safety, in order to serve the big strategic plan, not because of the blind action under the temptation of immediate small profits or inducements.
Soros, a famous speculative master on Wall Street, once said, "Rest is actually part of work. Only by staying away from the market can we see through the market more clearly. People who stay in the market every day will eventually be affected by every subtle fluctuation of the market, and eventually they will lose their way and be fooled by the market. "
The most obvious difference between futures investment and other jobs or investments is that other jobs need diligence to achieve something, and futures investment needs more understanding and sentiment than this. This is caused by the characteristics of futures investment.
The futures market is volatile and fast, and the market comes suddenly, but more time is waiting. For medium and long-term investors, "laziness" may be able to achieve good returns. In a round of rising market, people who are "lazy" for a long time often get more benefits than investors who frequently go in and out in the short term.
Therefore, futures is a game of the wise, and futures investment focuses on the deep understanding and sentiment of the market and the investment decisions made from it. If the investment decision is correct, it can be profitable to grasp several big markets a year; If the investment decision is incorrect, the more transactions, the more losses.