It is true that the price will rise after the winter solstice. Admittedly, there are other related factors that contribute to it. After all, the price of pigs has fallen for so long and by so much. A moderate "low-level supplementary increase" ”, which is completely normal.

The period before the Spring Festival is originally the peak season for pork consumption. According to seasonal consumption patterns, around the winter solstice of the lunar calendar is the peak period for pickling, and the market demand for pork is relatively large.

So many farmers will choose to "press the pen" in the early stage, that is, to raise the pigs without selling them, and then choose to ship them at a good price when the winter solstice is the peak consumption season.

But this winter is "unusual". In October, prices rose sharply when they shouldn't have, and now they don't, which really disrupted the original order of the market. It is true that this The reason is not one-sided.

It is due to the complex supply and demand ends, as well as comprehensive factors such as manpower, policies, and mask issues, that consumption is sluggish during the peak season, and pork consumption has fallen sharply compared to previous years.

The low price of pigs hurts farmers, and the high price of meat hurts the people. In this context, the National Development and Reform Commission changed the stockpile of pork during the "two festivals" some time ago, but in response to the recent rapid decline in pig prices, the National Development and Reform Commission said "Pork will be purchased and stored when necessary," sending a clear signal to the market.

Discussing the rise and fall of pig prices cannot be separated from the analysis of market supply and demand. The important reason for this wave of "cliff-like decline" in pig prices is the periodic "selling wave" of pig supply, which has caused the market to lose pigs. The supply is relatively sufficient in stages.

Another important reason is the sluggish demand side, and due to the impact of the "cold" after liberalization, the demand side will further decline.

The price of pigs is being attacked from both sides by "supply and demand". The price of pigs can only choose to "fall off a cliff". Looking at the trend of pig futures prices, we can know more clearly.

Data source: Wind

Industry insiders said that the ups and downs of live pig prices are not conducive to the normal operation and development of the industry. Normalized collection and storage can leave room for consumers and farmers. The expected space can also stabilize the operating confidence of breeding companies and farmers.

Therefore, the National Development and Reform Commission will continue to pay close attention to market supply, demand and price dynamics, and take reserve adjustment measures such as purchase and storage when necessary to promote the long-term healthy development of the pig market.

Experts recommend that pork processing companies appropriately increase commercial inventories and expand market demand. That is, they recommend that processing companies purchase live pigs, slaughter them and stockpile stocks, which can form a buffer between the breeding end and the consumer end.

In general, the concentrated slaughter in December, mask issues, weak consumption and other reasons have led to an imbalance in supply and demand, and the price of pigs has fallen rapidly in the short term. It is expected that the price of pigs will recover slightly before the "Double Festival". There are still opportunities for further rebound in some areas.

However, due to the reduced window period for group pig companies to sell pigs at the end of the month and the impact of the mask issue, it is difficult for the consumer market to receive support for a significant boost in the short term. It is expected that pig prices will still be under pressure at the end of the month and there will be no significant increase in pig prices. Rising fundamentals.

According to the pig price system monitoring, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, 13 pig prices increased, 4 fell and 9 flattened, with rising areas accounting for 50% of all monitoring.

The lowest average pig price monitored nationwide is 7.82 yuan/jin, the highest average pig price is 8.10 yuan/jin, and the overall average pig price is 7.96 yuan/jin, which is higher than yesterday’s national average pig price. At 0.22 yuan/kg, the overall price of pigs today showed a trend of "shock and rise".

According to the purchasing difficulty of slaughtering enterprises, the purchasing difficulty of slaughtering enterprises in the northern region has increased significantly. In many areas, pig prices have experienced multiple rises since the beginning, with relatively large increases. Farmers have shown poor enthusiasm for selling pigs. There is a relatively obvious phenomenon of asking prices and withdrawing pigs. The group pig farms in the northern region have a relatively obvious phenomenon of raising prices.

Slaughtering companies in the southern region have a relatively obvious phenomenon of local procurement. The price of local large pigs has rebounded slightly, the price of standard pigs has shown a certain stabilization sentiment, and local breeding groups have a certain sentiment of raising prices.

The bidding enthusiasm of traders in the leading group has increased. The pig prices of the group's pig farms have increased to a certain extent. The pig prices of the group's pig farms have increased to a certain extent, and the traders' enthusiasm for receiving goods has improved.

The ex-factory price of white-striped pigs in slaughtering enterprises in Northeast China has increased, with some companies increasing by 1,000 yuan/ton. The price of white-striped pigs in slaughtering enterprises in Shandong has remained stable.

Tomorrow’s pig price trend forecast: Based on the analysis of recent pig market factors, there is still a supplementary increase in the northern region, and it is expected that tomorrow’s pig price will show a trend of “large-scale increase”.

The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. You are welcome to exchange your views on the pig market, grasp the market trends, collect and share, and make a fortune by raising pigs.