1, the relationship between supply and demand-the fundamental factor affecting price fluctuation.

According to the principle of microeconomics, when the supply of a commodity exceeds the demand, its price falls, and vice versa. At the same time, price will affect supply and demand in turn, that is, when the price rises, supply will increase and demand will decrease, on the contrary, demand will increase and supply will decrease, so price and supply and demand are interactive.

An important indicator reflecting the relationship between supply and demand is inventory. The inventory of copper is divided into reported inventory and non-reported inventory.

Stock reporting, also known as "visible stock", refers to the stock of the exchange. At present, London Metal Exchange (LME), COMEX Branch of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are internationally influential copper futures trading institutions. All three exchanges regularly publish the inventory of designated warehouses.

Unreported stocks, also known as "invisible stocks", refer to stocks held by manufacturers, traders and consumers all over the world. Because these stocks are published irregularly, it is difficult to count them, so they are generally measured by exchange stocks. In recent years, in the total social inventory, the proportion of consumer inventory has decreased, while the proportion of exchange inventory has increased. Therefore, this trend must be considered when analyzing the inventory level.

2. International and domestic economic situation

When analyzing macro-economy, two indicators are very important, one is economic growth rate, or GDP growth rate, and the other is industrial production growth rate.

3. Import and export policies and tariffs;

For a long time, China has always adopted the policy of "wide import and strict export" in copper import and export, so when the domestic copper price is higher than the international copper price, the import of traders will narrow the price difference between the two markets; The opposite is not the case. With the gradual cancellation of export tariffs, copper can basically be imported and exported freely, thus making copper prices interactive at home and abroad.

4. Changes in the development trend of copper industry;

5. Production cost of copper

With the development of science and technology and the adoption of new smelting methods, the production cost of copper is decreasing. At present, the international average cost of copper smelting by internal combustion method is 1400- 1600 USD /t, and the cost of copper smelting by wet process is 800-900 USD/t. The total output of copper smelting by wet process is growing rapidly, and it is estimated that the proportion will reach 20% in 2000.

Only by analyzing can we have correct judgment and correct operation.