The net profit of the two companies in the first three quarters totaled 229.04438 billion yuan, equivalent to an average daily net profit of 848 million yuan, an increase of nearly 80% year-on-year. Many institutions believe that although the oil price fluctuated and fell recently, the international oil price center is expected to rise in the fourth quarter, and the prosperity is expected to run through the whole year.
International oil price "assists"
China Petroleum directly stated in the third quarterly report that the main performance indicators in the first three quarters continued to maintain the best level in the same period in history. The data shows that China Petroleum achieved an operating income of 2.46 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 30.6%; Net profit attributable to the mother 1202.7 1 100 million yuan, up 60 1% year-on-year.
China CNOOC's oil and gas sales revenue in the first three quarters was 265.89 billion yuan, up 67.6% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 65.438+00877 billion yuan, up 65.438+005.9% year-on-year. It is worth mentioning that China CNOOC's gross profit margin reached 54.46%, 5 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. CITIC Jiantou called this performance "beyond expectations".
It is understood that the profits of the two oil and gas giants in the first three quarters have exceeded 202 1 for the whole year. In 20021year, the net profit of China Petroleum was 9.210.70 billion yuan, and that of China CNOOC was 70.32 billion yuan. Moreover, judging from previous financial reports, the profits of the two major oil and gas giants in the first three quarters of this year both reached record highs in the same period.
For the substantial growth of performance, "two barrels of oil" both point to the continuous rise of international oil prices. In the first three quarters of 2022, the average oil distribution price was 105.67 USD/barrel, up 55.27% year-on-year.
According to the third quarterly report of China Petroleum, the average realized price of crude oil in the first three quarters was 95. 19 USD/barrel, up 5 1.9% year-on-year, of which the domestic realized price was 95.58 USD/barrel, up 52.6% year-on-year. The average realized price of domestic natural gas is 7.78 USD/thousand cubic feet, up by 365,438+0.2% year-on-year.
The situation of CNOOC in China is similar. In the first three quarters, the company achieved an average oil price of 1, 0 1.40 USD/barrel, up 55.8% year-on-year, which was basically consistent with the international oil price trend. The average gas price was 8. 14 USD/thousand cubic feet, up 20.2% year-on-year. In addition, China CNOOC revealed that the main cost of barrel oil in the first three quarters was $30.29, which also greatly increased its gross profit margin.
Accelerate capital expenditure
Compared with the third quarterly report of China Petroleum, the scale of China CNOOC is obviously smaller, but its profitability is obviously higher. In the first three quarters, the gross profit margin of China Petroleum was 2 1. 12%, which was the highest level in recent years, but it was obviously lower than that of China CNOOC (54.46%).
The market generally believes that the reduction of offshore oil exploitation cost gradually highlights the economy, and offshore oil and gas investment may tend to be active. Huaxin Securities believes that offshore oil and gas in China will be an important increment to increase reserves and production. With the maturity of onshore oil and gas exploration, the newly discovered oil and gas reservoirs are getting smaller and smaller, and the offshore oil and gas development potential is greater.
According to IHS statistics, in recent 10 years, 74% of the new oil and gas discoveries in the world were distributed in the ocean, with deep water accounting for 23% and ultra-deep water accounting for 36%. From the scale of newly discovered oil and gas reserves, the scale of offshore oil and gas reserves is much higher than that of land; Among them, the average reserve of ultra-deep water oil and gas is 352 million barrels equivalent, which is 16 times of the onshore scale.
Shenzhen-Hong Kong Securities also believes that, on the whole, the growth of China's offshore oil reserves is in the early stage of the peak period, while the growth of offshore natural gas reserves is still in the early stage. Ocean will be an important replacement area for oil and gas exploration, development and production development in China, with huge potential for future reserve and production growth.
According to the third quarterly report, CNOOC China has substantially increased its capital expenditure. The data shows that its capital expenditure in the first three quarters of 2022 reached about 68.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%. In the first half of this year, the company's capital expenditure was 46,543.8+0.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 65,438+0.5%. It can be seen that China CNOOC increased its capital expenditure significantly in the third quarter.
According to the third quarterly report, CNOOC China obtained 14 new discoveries in the first three quarters, and successfully evaluated 20 oil-bearing structures. In the first three quarters, the net output reached 4610.5 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 9.3% year-on-year, a record high in the same period. In addition, six projects were successfully put into production in the first three quarters.
The oil price center is expected to rise in the fourth quarter.
Affected by economic recession expectations and geopolitical risks, international oil prices fluctuated greatly in the first three quarters of this year. From February to July this year, the international oil price fluctuated in the range of 100- 130 USD/barrel. On March 7th, Brent crude oil futures in May once rose to 139 USD/barrel.
However, since the third quarter, the market's worries about the economic prospects have led to the fluctuation of international oil prices, hovering in the range of 90-80 US dollars/barrel. As of1October 26th, 65438, WTI 65438+February crude oil spot contract closed at 87.965438 USD +0/ barrel, with an increase of 3.04%; Brent 65438+February crude oil spot contract closed at $95.69/barrel, up 2.32%.
Cinda Securities believes that from the demand side of crude oil, it is mainly considered that crude oil may replace natural gas to generate electricity in winter in Europe, and the demand for heating oil in winter in the United States will increase; In terms of crude oil supply, we mainly consider the implementation of OPEC+substantial production reduction in June 5438+065438+ 10, as well as the phased embargo on Russian crude oil by the European Union in June 5438+February and the price limit ban on Russian oil. On the whole, in 2022Q4, the supply of crude oil will be tightened, the demand will increase, the crude oil is in the destocking stage, and the oil price center is expected to rise.
In addition, Founder Securities also believes that oil prices will remain high in the medium and long term, and energy resources are expected to be in a long boom cycle in the next 3-5 years. 20 15-202 1 global crude oil upstream investment is insufficient. The rebound of 202 1 oil price has not greatly boosted the upstream capital expenditure, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted the supply, resulting in the current tight supply of crude oil. From the demand side, there is still room for growth in crude oil demand in the next 3-5 years under the background that carbon dioxide emissions have peaked and the transformation of old and new energy structures has not been fully realized.
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