Because in addition to the rise in pig prices, many indicators closely related to pig prices are also rising simultaneously.
The first is the price of pigs. According to Mu Xin's pig price index. Com, the national average price has risen for six consecutive times since April 12.
The highest in some areas has risen to 7.3 yuan/kg.
Even worse is the price of piglets. Zhuo Chuang information data shows that the price of piglets in China has shown an upward trend in the past week. The average price of ternary piglets outside 7 kg was 3 13. 15 yuan/head, up 9.09% from the previous month.
According to the reporter's investigation of Mu Xin Agricultural Development Bank. The highest price of piglets in some areas has reached 450 yuan/head.
Then there is the stock price. As of today's close, pork stocks are also all red. In this case, the Middle East Swiss daily limit, Wen's, Mu Yuan, New Hope and other giants also rose more than 4%.
In addition, among the pig futures reflecting the continuous trend, the main contract of pig futures 2205 rose by 5.5 1% today, and the closing price rose to 13400 yuan/ton.
The live pig futures 2209 contract rose by 7.34%, and the price reached 179 10 yuan/ton.
Spot price is 8.95 yuan/kg.
In addition to the three major rises, another major indicator announced today is of course a decline, but it is more positive.
The State Council Press Office held a press conference on Monday, April 22nd, 2022 10 to introduce the national economy in the first quarter of 2022.
At the end of the first quarter, the number of live pigs was 422.53 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. Among them, it can breed 4 1.85 million sows.
Earlier, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs had announced that 42.68 million sows could be bred by the end of February.
830,000 sows landed in a month.
Many favorable data seem to point to the same conclusion, and the pig price has finally begun to reverse.
Recently, a number of brokers announced that the pig cycle will be reversed in 2022.
And the detailed rebound time, from the end of the second quarter to the end of the third quarter, or even the end of the year, various statements.
But everyone is particularly confident that the price of pigs will rise this year.
Although we often say that faith is more important than gold.
If an industry wants to develop well, it must be sure that practitioners are full of faith.
However, everyone is optimistic about the same direction, but it may have an unexpected impact on pig prices.
By the end of 2020, the whole industry is optimistic about the pig price of 202 1, but the final result is terrible.
This time, can the pig industry get out of this game dilemma about pig prices?
Judging the pig price is simple and clear, which is nothing more than a supply and demand analysis.
To say that complexity is just complexity, there are too many factors affecting supply and demand.
The first is the supply side. 202 1 The unexpected plunge in pig prices is mainly due to the fact that the whole industry underestimated the speed of capacity recovery, the large group underestimated the enthusiasm of small retail investors to resume production, and the small retail investors also underestimated the terrible expansion speed of large groups.
Now many people's belief in the rebound of pig prices in the second half of the year comes from the reduction of production capacity caused by continuous losses.
At present, the number of live pigs is definitely less than the peak of the New Year, but it may not be as small as the price of pigs has skyrocketed.
Take the data just released by the state as an example. At present, the total number of live pigs is still more than that of visitors 1.6%.
However, the number of fertile sows is 4 1.85 million, which is still higher than the normal number of 4 1 10,000 in the Implementation Plan of Pig Productivity Regulation promulgated by the state.
There are far from absolute few sows now.
More importantly, the supply of live pigs is a dynamic indicator.
If the number of sows can be maintained at 4 1 10,000 from now on, then maybe the pig industry in China can become calm from now on, and every pig farmer can earn a little money steadily.
Unfortunately, everyone in the bureau can't control other people's choices.
At present, there is a very strange phenomenon, which is about the situation of pigs on hand. The author chats with farmers in different areas, and the response is that the number of pigs around him is obviously reduced, and in some places, the land even exceeds 50%.
However, there was no obvious rebound in pig prices.
Because at this moment, no one can touch the pig enterprise, after all, there are many pigs.
And what is different from the past is that it will take a long time for farmers to fill in the column from the beginning of introduction to the present.
In this round of capacity reduction, although the group pig enterprises laid off a large number of inefficient sows, the reserve sows were widely reserved.
Once the pig price picks up, the reserve sows of the group pig enterprises can be quickly converted into production capacity.
At present, it can reduce 6,543,800 sows a month, and the same talent can increase 6,543,800 sows a month in the future.
When the small and medium-sized farmers reflect it, I am afraid that this capacity gap has long been filled.
On the demand side, another big misjudgment of 202 1 industry is that the pork consumption of China people decreased with the production capacity when the plague broke out, but it never recovered with the production capacity.
There are many factors involved in the same period, such as the change of consumption habits, the weakening of consumption power by the COVID-19 epidemic, and so on.
Now many pig farmers complain that the cost of raising pigs has risen sharply, and the price of pigs should also rise a little.
However, once the pig price is transmitted to the meat price at the expense end, if the meat price really rises simultaneously, the expenditure will definitely drop again, and the landing demand will in turn depress the pig price.
In this chain that needs to be transmitted, slaughter enterprises have a vital right to continue to speak.
In recent years, aquaculture giants have paid more and more attention to the extension of slaughter end. They not only built their own slaughterhouses, but also formed strong alliances like Muyuan and Shuanghui.
The change of policy general trend is also more obvious. Hainan, Fujian, Guangdong and other provinces have successively implemented the ban on raising pigs from other provinces.
In the future, the flow of live pigs between provinces will be smooth. There are actually two channels left. One is to transport pigs and meat, and the pig enterprises will slaughter the meat in the local area and transport it away. The other is that a few pig farms with suitable peer-to-peer qualifications continue to transport pigs.
The rest of the pigs must end the connection from pig to meat locally.
We can obviously invent, whether we own slaughterhouses or have peer qualifications, which is obviously the patent of breeding giants.
This also means that the giant's right to speak about the pig price in the local market will be much greater than at the moment.
It can be seen that the logic of determining pig prices may be undergoing grand changes, whether it is the supply side or the demand side.
As an ordinary pig farmer, should we follow the trend or be cautious in the face of immediate interests? Past experience may no longer be practical.