Forecast of the development prospects of the aviation logistics industry - short-term pressure, long-term prospects are optimistic
At the end of 2019, China and the United States reached the first phase of the trade agreement, which will benefit the development of my country's air cargo in 2020 , however, due to the outbreak of the new coronavirus during the Chinese Spring Festival in 2020, it is expected to have an impact on the development of air cargo in the first quarter of 2020.
According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, throughout 2019, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) basically remained between 49% and 51%. In February 2020, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, China's purchasing managers' index dropped significantly, falling sharply to 35.7%, a decrease of 14.3 percentage points from January 2020. As the Party Central Committee and the State Council coordinate the promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the current resumption rate of enterprises has rebounded rapidly, and production and business activities are resuming in an orderly manner.
On March 9, 2020, international crude oil futures prices plummeted to US$31 per barrel, a drop of at least 30% from the previous day, the largest single-day decline since 1991. Qianzhan Industry Research Institute predicts that in the first quarter of 2020, benefiting from the sharp drop in oil prices, the operating costs of air cargo companies will drop significantly, which will partially offset the impact of the epidemic on my country's air logistics. It is expected that my country's air cargo and mail transportation growth rate may drop to 2 in 2020 %, that is, the air cargo and mail transportation volume in 2020 is expected to be approximately 7.68 million tons. With the epidemic under control and the shipping logistics industry picking up, by 2025, the cargo transportation volume in my country's air cargo market is expected to reach 9.35 million tons.
——For more logistics industry-related plans, projects and data analysis, please refer to the Qianzhan Logistics Industry Research Institute.