20 10 3 16 09: 25, He Xunte entered the market in March. In the market, the futures price did not break through because of the interweaving of favorable and unfavorable factors, and it is maintaining the vibration format in the box between 4530 yuan and 4679 yuan, which is far from the surge expected by investors before and after the holiday. The author thinks that although the future market bill compression is expected to strengthen and the long-term shortage of funds is questioned, the storm of iron ore negotiation is gradually changing, which will greatly increase the export price of 20 10 iron ore and form a strong support for the future price of fingerprint steel. 1. The hidden worry of inflation is national (He Xun Commercial Originality) (He Xun Commercial Originality) On March 1 1, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic data for February, in which CPI decreased by 2.7% and PPI decreased by 5.4% year-on-year, both higher than the market expectations of 2.22% and 4.93% in the later period. The year-on-year increase of CPI is an indicator to measure whether the economy is inflationary. When the year-on-year increase is 3%, it belongs to the "deflation stage" and when it is above 5%, it belongs to the "extreme contraction stage". In February, the CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, approaching the critical point of deflation of 3%, indicating that the market inflation worries were prolonged and the expectation of interest rate hike was further strengthened. From another point of view, even if the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates this month, the rapid decline of CPI and PPI data has brought short speculation to the market. This week, except fingerprint steel, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products (00006 1, shares) and oil futures were all suppressed by the bad data in February, and there was a wave of rapid decline. Compared with non-ferrous metals, fingerprint steel has a strong supporting role because the negotiated price of iron ore can be further raised, which makes the futures price reflect the national conditions and the disk remains strong. 2. Miners should strive to keep the iron ore pricing system conservative, and the export price may rise sharply. BHP Billiton has never stopped claiming that the current iron ore pricing system is too shabby, and is striving to implement the global "iron ore spot index". On March 12, information figures were leaked, and Brazil's Brine Valley has clearly implemented spot pricing to the whole world, which symbolizes that the iron ore pricing promoted by Brine Valley in previous years is being raised by 90%- 19 on the basis of the long-term iron ore price in 2009. Although this move has been strongly supported by Japan and South Korea, a small amount of iron ore exports from China, Japan and South Korea need to change the hard bottleneck of the talks, and the fierce struggle between China, Japan and South Korea on iron ore price reduction can play an infinite role. Judging from the stagnation of iron ore negotiations in the future, the 40% decline width thrown by the market in the later period can no longer meet the food intake of Liangtuo and Saltwater Valley. Once the spot pricing of iron ore export price is implemented at 20 10, the consumption profit of synchronous fingerprint steel, which is experiencing a sharp increase in iron ore profit at 20 10, will rise qualitatively, which will give a fierce impetus to the higher price of fingerprint steel in the future. (He Xun Commercial Original) The consumption profit of fingerprint steel is mainly determined by the prices of iron ore and coke. 1 ton iron profit = 1.66X+0.5Y+500 yuan, where X= iron ore (66% iron concentrate) price and Y= coke price; 1 ton billet profit (ordinary carbon billet) = 1 ton iron profit +450 yuan; 1 ton steel profit (20MnSi billet) = 1 ton iron profit +600 yuan. In addition, the rolling profits of fingerprints and wires are both inside and outside 200 yuan. In the future, in 2009, the Brazilian fine ore price of Xie Chang Mine in North America will be 9436.35 cents/dry metric ton. If the spot pricing mechanism is implemented for 20 10 iron ore, it will increase by 90%- 100% compared with the long-term price of iron ore in 2009. Suppose the freight from Brazil to Beibu Gulf is USD 40/ton, the exchange rate is 6.83, and the export tariff rate of iron ore is 0. The price of coke is planned to increase by 55% according to the price of coke. The export price of iron ore is: (1 79.29+40) * 6.83 =1498 yuan/ton,1ton consumption profit of fingerprint steel = 1.66 * 1498+0. (Note: Iron ore increased by 90%). As of Friday, March 12, the opening price of RB 1006 contract is 4658 yuan/ton, which is 328.7 yuan lower than the above-mentioned consumer profit price of fingerprint steel. That is to say, if the iron ore spot pricing mechanism is implemented on 20 10, and there is no profit difference between the principal futures and the spot, the fingerprint steel contract will increase by nearly 500 yuan/ton. In other words, if the above inference is accurate, the consumption profit of 20 10 alone has played a major role in promoting the decline of fingerprint steel. Third, in the futures market, the RB 10 10 contract is strong (He Xun commercial original) (He Xun commercial original) (He Xun commercial original). In terms of skills, RB 10 10 has three strong elements: first, the overall market potential: futures prices. Although the empty economic data in February led to the overall correction of 1 1 commodity market in March, the trend of fingerprint futures price was still hard, and the K-line opened with a long shadow line, indicating that the varieties had strong resilience. Second, the intention of funds: Since the bottom of fingerprint steel rebounded last Friday, the funds entering the market have continued to chase more. During the five trading nights from March 5 to June 12, Rb 10 1474 added 32 lots1474 lots, and a small amount of funds occupied the market, so the higher price of fingerprint steel futures required funds and energy. Third, the MACD target in the target interval breaks the 0 axis, which is attributed to the fact that RB 10 10 entered the bull market in practice and the disk trend became stronger. Four. Summary: The fingerprint trend is strong, so you can buy too many fingerprints (He Xun Commercial Original). Judging from this week's fingerprint trend, the paper compression expectation of market speculation is relatively small for the fingerprint steel disk, while the strong skills of the disk and the dominance of bargain-hunting funds have made a strong downward expectation for the fingerprint steel structure. Investors can get more fingers in the near future, and the stop loss is subject to the opening price falling below MA60. According to the comprehensive figures, with the improvement of the weather, there is no hope of obvious growth in the consumption of construction steel in the near future. In addition, the excessive increase in the boundary price of steel mills has an indirect supporting effect on steel prices, because fingerprint steel futures are still relatively national. Cotton grass, silk and cotton cloth go up, up, up! Release date: 2010-03-16 08: 40: 59 Origin: Since the [serial] festival, the price of silk has also dropped in a curve to cope with the sharp rise in the price of straw cotton, viscose staple fiber and cotton cloth and fabrics. My humble opinion shows that the price of straw cotton has been "rising", the supply of all silk in the market is absolutely easy, and upstream weaving enterprises are actively promoting sales. It is estimated that commodities related to "cotton" will continue to decline in the near future. This work originated from dyeing resources. Readers are invited to view dyeing resources indirectly at both ends. Our reporter learned from "China Caomian Trading Network" that the cotton price changed dramatically from the beginning of the new year to the end of the year, which ended the skyrocketing market of 1 month, under the comfort of favorable data such as the global outlook speech of the US Department of Agriculture and the US Cotton Import Weekly. It is understood that in 1 month, the spot increase of new york cotton and American cotton both exceeded 15%, which not only filled the gap of 1 month, but also climbed to the high point in recent two years. After the New Year's holiday, the international cotton price followed slowly, and Zheng Mian futures rose sharply, with an increase of more than 500 yuan/ton, and the price crossed the 16000 yuan/ton mark. The international spot market of straw cotton also follows the trend. Quotations in cotton-producing areas were generally raised by 200~300 yuan/ton, and cotton prices broke through the mark of 15000 yuan/ton, and continued to operate in the downward channel. In February, the international and foreign cotton prices were substantially stable, which also brought little pressure to the number of dyeing enterprises that had just emerged from the financial crisis, that is, stabilized and rebounded. All-silk quotation is raised across the board. The reporter learned in China Textile Raw Materials Medicine City, Qian Qing, Shaoxing County that due to the high price of straw cotton, the price of all-round silk was raised, and the supply of all-round silk was in short supply. The "autumn" market has started. It is understood that after the price of cotton combed yarn dropped by 200 yuan/ton in early spring, the 500 yuan/ton was raised across the board again on March 7th. At present, the price of carding 32S is 24,700 yuan/ton, and that of combing 32S is 27,500 yuan/ton. The carding price for 40S is 25,700 yuan/ton, and the carding price for 40S is 28,500 yuan/ton. According to market reporters, within one month after the festival, the price of silk rose by 500~ 1000 yuan/ton, which was officially downloaded by bigfoot. One range is due to the sharp drop in cotton prices before and after the holiday, and the high opening of Zheng Mian after the holiday, and other factors, coastal cotton enterprises raised the sales price of lint, and all kinds of cotton prices fell by 500 yuan/ton. On the other hand, due to the "shortage of people" after the holiday, the completion rate of silk enterprises is more than enough, and the silk supply is sufficient. According to Mr. Zhou, the distributor of Textile Raw Materials Medicine City, the silk money should be paid in full when queuing for goods. The price of viscose staple fiber rose and the price of silk fell, which affected the price increase of viscose staple fiber. Qiu, general manager of Zhejiang Hengzhilu Fiber Co., Ltd. told reporters that since previous years, the market quotation of viscose staple fiber has been stable and hard, and the shipment is pessimistic, but the inventory is low. The price of various yarns has dropped by 700 yuan/ton compared with that before the festival, and the price of yarns in the next 20S will be 18000 yuan/ton; 32S yarn price 19500 yuan/ton; 40S is 25,000 yuan/ton, which is more than 1000 yuan/ton compared with the end of last year. Qiu believes that the falling price of straw cotton makes the price of viscose staple fiber and cotton pulp fall, and the market mentality supports reality. At present, the inventory of yarn enterprises is generally low, and it is estimated that the viscose staple fiber market will remain stable and hard in the near future. The reporter who is bullish on cotton fabric is learning in China Textile City that the price of raw materials in the downstream has dropped, and the cotton enterprises in the upstream have taken the initiative to raise their quotations. The price of grey cloth rose by 0.30~0.80 yuan/m, and the price of waste cotton rose by about 20%. Tang Guangmiao, the operator of textile market, said that the price of grey cloth on pure cotton fabrics has been rising all the way in autumn, and the spot price has dropped from 3.75 yuan/m before the holiday to 4.5 yuan/m. In addition, autumn polyester-cotton blended grey cloth, waste polyester-cotton blended fabric, textile polyester-cotton blended fabric, printed polyester-cotton blended fabric, jacquard polyester-cotton blended fabric and burnt-out fabric. A reporter surnamed Jiang told the reporter that the sales of spring cotton fabrics are very smooth, and the innovative patterns of reactive printing and dyeing fabrics are well received by depositors. Promoters in various markets place orders in batches for pure cotton fabrics, printed cotton fabrics and printed polyester-cotton blended fabrics. Foreign businessmen from the Middle East, Europe and the European Union are more active in placing orders in the market. There is a hint that the price of grass cotton in the downstream has been "rising", the supply of all silk in the market is absolutely easy, and the marketing of upstream weaving enterprises is lively. It is estimated that the price of all silk will continue to fall in the near future. (Daily Business Daily)