0 1: the value of time
02: Capital accumulation
03: the * * * burden of risk
04: Build a complete financial world outlook: financial institutions, financial instruments, investor decision-making, enterprise decision-making, financial regulatory innovation opportunities, technology and finance.
Second, the evolution of finance.
06: Central Monetary and Financial System
Wang's contribution
Concentrate on doing great things
Weak private credit
Private investment and financing have been suppressed.
07: Bank monetary credit system
The Knights Templar played the role of the earliest bank.
Decentralized credit system
The 13 colony in the United States is decentralized and balanced, and it is centralized after the reunification of the north and the south, so there is a developed financial market.
08: Financial Intermediary
What is traded is "credit" (invisible and intangible), and the information is asymmetric.
Bank, investment bank
Credit rating agencies, financial supervision
Three. Bank 1
1 1: currency
Behind the credit currency is national credit and national strength (that is, the confidence of other countries in the country)
Bitcoin speculation
12: deposit reserve (amplification function of banks)
Banks are small reservoirs, which discharge water.
13: benchmark interest rate (amplification function of banks)
The price of water
Downward adjustment: overheating, inflation, people's crazy exchange of goods, social unrest.
Upward adjustment: bankruptcy of enterprises, bad debts of banks, hard landing.
Four. Bank 2
16: the secret of the bank lying down to make money
Transformation scale: absorb small deposits and lend large amounts of funds.
Conversion period: collect funds at different times and lend term loans.
Conversion risk: bear the risk of default.
2003-20 13: Bank golden decade, rapid economic development, restrictions on bank licenses (40 in 2000).
After 20 13: economic development has slowed down, bank licenses have been liberalized (there are now 4,000), and competition has intensified.
17: cargo base
Absorb scattered funds and invest in the interbank market.
Yu 'ebao sounded the alarm for the bank.
18: Non-principal-guaranteed financial management
Bypass supervision: take advantage of banks to absorb funds and invest in high-yield assets through cooperation such as trust.
fund
05 1: the era of asset management in which funds are king.
Essence: gather funds and manage money professionally.
Advantages: decentralization and specialization
052: How to Choose Funds, 2D Coordinate System
Coordinates 1: investment targets-cargo base (good liquidity), stock base (high yield), debt base (good security) and mixed base.
Coordinate 2: investment style
Active investment type
Indexed securities investment fund
Passive investment type
Coordinate 3
Look at the macro
Passive allocation in bull market and bond allocation in bear market.
Look at the industry
Choose industries that you are familiar with and optimistic about.
Do you see the time?
Interest rate cuts, bond prices rise.
Look at the brand
Large fund companies and banks are bond funds.
053: Private fund is more advanced than public offering.
Less supervision
High power
The reputation of fund managers is very important.
054: The Pit of Investment Fund
Sedan chair: interest transfer between funds
Rat Warehouse: Fund Manager's Benefit Transfer to Friends and Family
Interest transfer between listed companies and fund companies
055: The central bank lowered the RRR interest rate, which led to an increase in bond prices.
XVI: Debts and bonds
Why do people borrow money? Breaking through your own financial constraints and doing what you can't do is to use credit leverage. The essence of debt is credit leverage.
066: Creditor's Rights
Debt: a responsibility that can be quantified and monetized
Debt contract: standardize existing contracts and support more complex social credit relations.
Debt institutions: centralized credit distribution and further detailed division of labor. Financing is a major one.
067: bonds
Standardize debt contracts, realize small amounts and improve liquidity.
"Voucher" cuts off the huge debt relationship with one knife.
068: Cost Accounting
The essence of interest: the value of funds in time dimension
The Essence of Interest Rate: Time Price of Capital
Fisher theory
Benefit: the choice between current consumption and future consumption
Interest rate: the exchange price between current consumption and future consumption.
Limitations: The world is complicated by great simplification.
Interest rates in fast-developing countries are higher than those in stable developed countries.
069: compound interest
Geometric series growth
In the model of snowballing and compound interest, we are not afraid of small growth rate, but we are afraid of excessive fluctuation and swallowing up growth.
Personal growth: 1.0 1.365 = 37.78.
070: question and answer
Market interest rate: basic interest rate government regulation: intervention interest rate
The government regulates the short-term economic fluctuation in Tang Ping, but the long-term effect is limited.
07 1: Personal credit is very valuable!
Credit is an asset, and promises are exchanged for capital turnover.
Three foundations of capitalization
The foundation of law
Supporting technology
Credit score, FICO
The Future of China Credit
Life scene
Alipay, wechat
Reduce the operating cost of the punishment mechanism
Don't use Alipay or WeChat.
072: SME financing difficulties
Difficult to issue bonds: unpopular, difficult to borrow: no collateral.
German model: big banks to big enterprises, small banks to small enterprises.
Ali JD.COM Model: Big Data
073: Needham's question
East-West Diversion: Taxation and Debt Issuance
Different feeding times
Different contractual relationships
074: The Secret of Credit Card
The principal is reduced and the interest expense remains unchanged.
075: Q&A: Does the property tax affect the house price?
The tax cost is high, and the word stability comes first.
It is difficult to collect stock tax, but it is easy to collect incremental tax.
The tax rate will not be too high.
Money comes from debt.
Debt is quantified in monetary form.
The earliest central bank: the Bank of England
077: Necessity of Debt Default
There is no absolute debt repayment.
Endless creditor's rights and debts and real life do not exist.
The market of rigid redemption is distorted.
Pareto improvement of debt cancellation
078: Debt Spiral-China Dynasty Replacement
Maintaining the stability of the imperial court-war, natural disasters-tax collection-worsening debt relationship-strengthening tax collection-changing the dynasty
079: Investment in bonds is not recommended.
There are few retail investors and low liquidity.
The fluctuation of interest rate is closely related to the macro, but it is difficult to judge the macro.
Seventeen. stock
08 1: joint-stock system
Institutional arrangement for different people to obtain the consistency of economic interests
Tax partners in Rome and the Republic of China were the embryonic form of modern social joint-stock companies: permanence, transferability and liquidity.
082: legal person: eternal property owner.
Legal persons enjoy the same property rights as natural persons.
There is no definite termination date for legal persons. This system makes it possible for enterprises to continue for a long time.
083: Benefits of Limited Liability
It is equivalent to buying insurance for investors and encouraging them to invest.
084: China's shareholding system reform is beginning to emerge.
The household contract responsibility system makes everyone full.
Redundant workers
Develop township enterprises and encourage farmers to become shareholders.
085: Advantages of Unlimited Partnership
Because of unlimited responsibility, I better participate in the operation of the enterprise.
Partners pay taxes, and partnerships don't pay taxes.
Based on the agreement, the procedure is simple and the legal constraint is low.
If it is a limited partnership, GP shall bear unlimited liability.
086: The industrial revolution had to wait for the financial revolution.
Equity risk * * * bear, income * * * enjoy, scale operation to reduce costs.
087: Venture Capital Shaping Silicon Valley
Assess risks and release signals. Venture capitalists support their start-ups
Bring business contacts.
Negative impact: Venture capital is raised by high-net-worth people or institutional investors, and managers have the impulse to motivate their performance.
088: joint-stock system &; partnership
Joint-stock system: friendship, focusing on fixed capital, may get out of control.
Partnership: the relationship between husband and wife, emphasizing human capital, may bear unlimited liability.
089: China Stock Market Reform
090: question and answer
Regardless of good or bad, regardless of value judgment, the government is the biggest player in the China market.
A company is an organizational form of an enterprise. A sole proprietorship "partnership enterprise" company
Alibaba's partner system: controlling the enterprise through the appointment of board members by partners.
09 1: interests of minority shareholders
Economic rights
right of participation
Strong management represents the rights of minority shareholders.
092: the interests of minority shareholders
Long-term strategy of enterprises &; Investors' short-term goals conflict.
Major shareholders, minority shareholders and management all have their own ulterior motives.
093: the secret of the price difference between A shares and H shares
Market segmentation: funds in the two markets cannot flow freely.
A shares can't be short.
A shares have the value of "shell".
H-share institutional investors account for a large proportion.
094: China shareholding system reform.
Double track system
Non-tradable shares: state-owned shares and legal person shares.
Valuation at book value
floating stock
Market price calculation
095: question and answer
Eighteen, financial derivatives
096: "Hidden Weapons" in Financial Markets
Definition: Futures, that is, standardized forward contracts.
hedging
transfer of risks
Speculative arbitrage
Transaction is the future price of a commodity, which will gather people's information and judgment on a future commodity. Moreover, the better the liquidity of the market, that is, the more people change hands, the more information they collect, and the more they can correctly reflect the underlying assets.
price discovery
097: Commodities don't have to be tangible, which brings the first cognitive upgrade.
098: the second cognitive upgrade: the transaction does not have to be delivered.
099: Misunderstanding of Retail Trading Derivatives
Too superstitious about value analysis
Too radical, improper position control
Play elite in your spare time
100: A shares enter MSCI
Manager: Morgan Stanley International Capital Company (hereinafter referred to as Morgan Stanley Capital International Company), with management scale of 12 trillion and total market value of16 global stock market.
MSCI investors are super-rich institutions, helping more funds to enter A shares.
A-share influence
Short-term impact is limited: 5% of the market value of 234 stocks is included. Direct capital flows are limited.
The long-term impact is far-reaching: it can force the China stock market to reform.
10 1: stock index futures
Angel: hedging to reduce portfolio risk
Devil: a tool to amplify losses by leverage.
Leveraged short selling in the whole market leads to a liquidity spiral of falling volume and price.
102: options: consider options.
Futures: rights and obligations are equal and connected with each other.
Option: separation of rights and obligations, specifically pricing power.
103: overpass
The essence of exchange is a complementary and mutually beneficial replacement.
Behind the exchange is Ricardo's comparative advantage theory.
Swaps, like all derivatives, generate new risk points while transferring and redistributing risks.
104: how to price derivatives
The derivative product and its underlying asset group are combined into a risk-free portfolio, and the differential equation of derivative product price is obtained.
Nineteen. investment
1 1 1: How to price risks?
Risks can be divided into systematic risks and individual risks.
Individual risk can be offset, also known as diversification risk.
System risk is irreversible, also known as non-dispersible risk.
1 12: Risk-free assets aim at risk-free.
Benchmarking management: transforming incomparable absolute values into comparable relative values.
National debt as a substitute for each country's own risk-free assets.
1 13: risks of stocks, bonds and real estate.
stock
Industry risk
operating risk
bond
breach a contact
Cycle: official website, the central bank, can find the M0 M2 index, which is usually ahead of the economic cycle. Imagine water, more water can better irrigation, less water is drought.
real estate
Growth: economic growth and rising house prices.
Decline: urban decline and falling house prices
1 14: China stock market rises and falls, The Secret Behind.
The share price of A shares reflects more systemic risks than individual risks.
Most of the stock markets in developing countries reflect systemic risks, while most of the stocks and markets in developed countries are relatively independent.
Developing countries do not effectively protect investors, investors do not trust the information disclosed by companies enough, and trading behavior is more affected by the broader market.
1 16: assets appraisal
Absolute valuation
Internal valuation, expected cash flow generated by assets
Relative valuation
According to the pricing of similar assets.
Always maintain an objective and calm attitude towards the valuation results.
1 17: absolute valuation, cash flow is king.
discountedcashflow
Cash flow: the surplus and discretionary funds of shareholders.
Discount rate: the greater the uncertainty, the discount rate.
Calculate the future growth rate with the average growth rate of the past five years.
The discount rate can be seen through the average yield of the whole market.
1 18: Relative valuation, using price-earnings ratio to find cheap assets.
Comparison between individual stock price-earnings ratio and average price-earnings ratio
The market's optimism about a company will push up the price-earnings ratio.
Ultra-high P/E ratio will produce bubbles.
120: CDR strategic fund
Certificates for trading assets or securities in different places
Capital control leads to a big gap between investment cdr and overseas stocks.
12 1: portfolio theory
According to markowitz's theory, abstract risks are transformed into computable variables.
122: Sharp ratio: looking for risk-adjusted returns
The greater the profit-risk ratio, the more worth buying, and it is better to exceed 1.
Sharp ratio of special drawing rights
123: Asset Pricing Theory
132: efficient market theory, right?
Strong efficient market
Perfect pricing, reflecting all the information about securities and enterprises. Insider and supervision are redundant.
Semi-strong efficient market
Insider trading can make money and needs supervision.
Weakly efficient market
Some public information is not included in the price.
Efficient market is a dynamic concept, and efficiency and inefficiency are relative.
133: what has the efficient market theory neglected?
Limited arbitrage
Your arbitrage behavior is limited, and the wrong pricing in the market can't disappear completely through arbitrage behavior, such as the spread of AH shares.
Irrational investor
The mood of investors will greatly affect the judgment.
People are the protagonists of the market, and people's subjective initiative cannot be ignored.
134: king of speculation: Livermore's trading principle
Trading principle
Follow the trend principle
Based on the judgment of the basic value of the enterprise, then follow suit.
pyramid principles
According to the trend of trading, the trend has determined the price increase again.
Reverse operation
When the aunts are talking about stocks.
Follow the tap.
Buy industry leaders and the strongest stocks.
The power of morality
Control emotion
Emotion is the enemy of trading.
knowledge
courage
Trading requires determination.
Two main points
Any success is ultimately the success of the times.
The most lasting success must be moral success.
136: Market Segmentation: Imperfect Market
Geographical market segmentation
Institutional market segmentation
Regulatory division of labor and regulatory game
The abs of the exchange is trying to innovate because of its small trading volume.
137: Can price limits reduce market volatility?
It is believed that the biggest decline 10% and false sense of security encourage the behavior of leveraged stock trading.
As a result, market liquidity dries up and market volatility increases.
The pressure of the market cannot be released, and the panic is amplified.
138: monopoly mechanism of abortion
The China stock market and the broader market rose and fell together.
A stable market needs stable expectations to operate, and market confidence is the most important.
139: Willian gann: the originator of technical analysis.
The laws of history will constantly reappear.
The long-term consolidation of individual stocks in a certain position means that this price has been strongly supported.
principle
Grasp investor sentiment
When the market beliefs are completely consistent, it means that no new funds enter the market, so the possibility of trend reversal increases, which is the time to leave or turn.
Stop loss principle
Set a stop loss line
Conservative investment
Don't over-trade
Don't change your position easily.
investment diversification
140: Why does the price limit always exist?
Advantages: avoid the spread of panic and reduce excessive fluctuations.
Disadvantages: delayed price discovery.
14 1: the sad reminder of retail investors: noise traders.
There are a large number of traders who lack real information in the market, which will make the market form a feedback mechanism, lead to the price deviating from the real value more and more, and produce systematic valuation deviation.
Noise traders in China are the most at risk.
142: smart investment: accompanied by a bubble
When there is a wave of market, it will definitely decline for a period of time.
143: fund run: catastrophic disappearance.
144: Buffett and Munger
The future trend lies in India and China.
Part V: Enterprise decision-making.
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