Some experts say that the rebalancing of the oil market has arrived. Jim O 'Neill, an economist at Manchester University in England, even thinks that the futures price of 20 18 Brent crude oil may reach $80/barrel. Merrill Lynch also recently released a report predicting that Brent crude oil futures price may hit $70/barrel in the middle of 20 18. The CEO of Luke Oil Company said that once the oil price hit $60/barrel, the production reduction agreement should not be extended. Oil prices are too high, shale oil production in the United States has soared, and oil prices have been suppressed again.
Faced with various oil price forecasts and various concerns, the reporter took the opportunity of "20 18 International Energy Development Summit Forum" to interview Dr. Daniel Elgin, the international energy giant, the vice chairman of IHS Markit Consulting Company, and the current Trump administration energy policy consultant, and Jim Burchard, the vice president of IHS Markit Oil Marketing Department. Let's listen to the views of these two world-class energy giants on the 20 18 oil market and the trend of oil prices.
20 18 oil price judgment -55-70 USD/barrel
Reporter: In view of the recent international oil price trend and the decision to postpone the production reduction agreement, how do you judge the future international oil price trend and the rebalancing of the oil market?
Daniel Eugene
Eugene: I think the global oil market is still in the process of restoring balance. I won't say that the global crude oil market has now returned to balance, but I predict that 20 18 will be the year when the oil market really returns to balance.
Jim Burchard
Burchard: To be sure, with the increase of oil price, the crude oil output of the United States will be stronger in 20 18, which is likely to hit a new high, and the crude oil output of Canada, Brazil and other countries is also increasing. In addition, geopolitical risks will re-act on oil prices, which may raise international oil prices in the future. To sum up, we predict that the international oil price in 20 18 will be between 55-70 USD/barrel.
Reporter: You once said that it is ideal to keep the international oil price at around $55/barrel, and now the oil price has approached $65/barrel. What do you think of such a change? If the oil price continues to climb, what risks may it bring?
Eugene: For the global oil market, the international oil price of $55/barrel is certainly better than $65/barrel. In my opinion, 55-65 USD/barrel is the most ideal oil price range. Above this range, oil prices may plummet again, forming a vicious circle. I don't think any oil-producing country wants to see oil prices soar to 100 USD/barrel again.
20 18 American shale oil production will increase substantially.
Reporter: Speaking of American shale oil, do you think the extension of the production reduction agreement will stimulate the production of American shale oil? If the shale oil production in the United States increases substantially, will it lead to a new round of cliff-like decline in oil prices?
Eugene: Yes, the rise in oil prices will stimulate the further increase in shale oil production in the United States. If the WTI is maintained at around $55/barrel, the US shale oil production will increase by 600,000 barrels per day, and if the WTI rises to $60/barrel, the US shale oil production will increase by 900,000 barrels per day. It should be pointed out that we also predict that the world oil demand will increase by 6.5438+800,000 barrels per day next year.
Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are very wary of the reaction of American shale oil in the process of rising oil prices. American shale oil industry is equivalent to the "new continent" of today's oil market and is a variable factor. We need to pay close attention to its future reaction to oil prices and its impact on oil prices.
Burchard: If the oil price is higher than $60/barrel, the US crude oil output may rise rapidly, which will put some downward pressure on the international oil price. However, cliff-like decline is unlikely to happen, and oil prices may fall back to the range of 45-50 USD/barrel.
20 18 oil market changes keywords-cooperation, taking precautions, geopolitics, global economy
Reporter: The latest news said that just a few days after the decision to extend the production reduction agreement was announced, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries planned to discuss a plan on how to withdraw from the production reduction agreement. At present, it seems that the recovery speed of the oil market is indeed faster than we thought. What do you think is the possibility of OPEC withdrawing from the production reduction agreement ahead of schedule?
Eugene: I think it's too early to talk about "retreat". Whether OPEC will withdraw from the production reduction agreement ahead of schedule will not be known until June next year. At that time, the plenary meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will revise the production reduction period according to the recovery of the market, and crude oil inventory is one of the key indicators. The organization of petroleum exporting countries will always pay attention to the changes in crude oil inventories.
Burchard: As far as the goal of reducing crude oil stocks is concerned, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has not achieved the expected results and still needs to do a lot of work.
Reporter: If the oil market tightens again recently, how should oil and gas enterprises plan ahead?
Eugene: Oil companies need to pay more attention and think about how to do "large-scale projects". In the past, large-scale projects may be independently developed, but now it is necessary to package large-scale projects in modules, and consider their overall economy and promote them as a whole. We still need to promote large-scale projects to meet the growing demand for oil.
Reporter: Do you think it is possible for some "black swan" incidents to happen again in 20 18, thus affecting the global oil market?
Eugene: 20 18, we need to pay special attention to the Middle East, Venezuela and North Korea. Geopolitical risks in these areas will not directly affect oil prices, but will have a huge impact on the global economic structure, which in turn will affect oil prices.
Burchard: I think we need to pay special attention to one technology in the future, and that is "driverless technology". The current development speed of this technology is faster than we thought, and it may suddenly bring us a "surprise" one day in the future, which will have a huge impact on the global automobile industry and oil demand.
Reporter: Every year, you will mention the annual industry focus. 20 18 what should I pay attention to?
Eugene: First of all, 20 18 should pay more attention to the automobile industry and its related policies. Subversive changes may occur in the automotive industry in the future, such as driverless technology.
Secondly, we should pay more attention to geopolitics. In the past few months, we can see geopolitical changes reflected in oil prices again.
Finally, we should pay attention to the strength of the global economic recovery. The economic situation will directly affect the global energy demand, and then affect the oil price. IHS predicts that the global economic growth will be strong in 20 18, and the economic recovery rate will be close to that before 2008.