First of all, the Federal Reserve's resolution in May stated that hawks were the main factors that put pressure on gold prices.
The interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve has always been the focus of the market. Although the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and there was no press conference by Yellen, the hawkish tone of this resolution is still the main factor for bearish gold prices.
In May, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.75-0. 1%, which was in line with expectations. Judging from the expression of this Fed resolution, the wording of the Fed is slightly hawkish. The Fed said that the economic slowdown in the first quarter was temporary, the labor market was strengthened, and the Fed would gradually raise interest rates. It is still expected that the US economy will expand moderately.
The Fed said that the current fundamentals support the steady growth of consumption, business fixed investment has been consolidated, employment growth rate is stable, and the fundamentals of consumption growth rate are also very stable. The labor market continues to strengthen, even if the growth rate slows down. Household expenditure has only increased moderately.
The Fed said that in terms of the speed of future interest rate hikes, the Fed reiterated that FOMC expects the economy to ensure that the Fed will gradually raise interest rates. On the balance sheet, the Fed reiterated that the reinvestment strategy of maintaining the balance sheet remains unchanged. In terms of inflation, the index used to measure the inflation rate in the next 12 months is close to the target. The core inflation rate is still below 2% to some extent.
After the announcement of the Fed's resolution, the US federal funds futures rate showed that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in June soared to 93.8%.
For the Fed's decision, analysts gave a more optimistic view on the economy.
Barbara Rockefeller, an analyst at Rockefeller Treasury Services, pointed out that "the economic growth in the second quarter of the United States will be full of vitality and motivation, thus boosting inflation, which means that the Fed has reason to raise interest rates. In March, the overall price of the United States rose by 1.8%, and the core price rose by 1.6%. 1.8% inflation rate is close to the Fed's target of 2%, which can be a legitimate reason for raising interest rates. "
For the shrinking table problem that the market is concerned about. Gross, the "king of bonds", said that the Fed's resolution statement in May seemed to be "weak-willed" and the Fed still had a long way to go before it began to shrink its watch.
Goldman Sachs said that this week's policy statement is consistent with the statement in the minutes of the March meeting that the contraction should be carried out in a gradual and predictable manner. The Federal Reserve left the details of the balance sheet discussion in the minutes of its May meeting, which will be released on May 24, usually three weeks apart.
Second, the good performance of American data is also an important factor to put pressure on gold prices.
Before the announcement of the Federal Reserve resolution, the United States released a series of important economic data. Although the recent economic data released by the United States did not perform well, these data performed better than expected, which made the price of gold under pressure.
Specific data show that the US ISM non-manufacturing index in April was 57.5, with an expected value of 55.8 and a previous value of 55.2. Other sub-data show that the ISM new order index of non-manufacturing industry is 63.2, the highest since August 2005, and the previous value is 58.9; ISM informal employment index hit a new low since August 2065438+2006.
Analysts pointed out that the service industry expanded better than expected in April, especially the sub-index of orders hit a new high since 2005. This data is consistent with the rebound of economic growth from a three-year low in this quarter. Stable employment growth, increasingly healthy family financing and the growth of market confidence explain the expansion of service industry to some extent.
The number of small non-agricultural ADP employees in the United States in April+177000; Expected+175000, the previous value was revised from +263000 to +255000.
Analysts pointed out that the number of employed people increased by 6.5438+0.77 million in April, the lowest since 654.38+00 last year, indicating that the strong recruitment momentum slowed down in the first quarter. However, after excluding the factors that reduce the number of new jobs, considering the two premises that the labor market is close to full employment and population growth, the employment growth is actually very strong.
The final PMI of Markit service industry in the United States in April was 53. 1, the expected PMI was 52.5, and the initial PMI was 52.5. The final value in March is 52.8; The final value of comprehensive PMI is 53.2 and the initial value is 52.7; The final value in March is 53.
According to the analysis, compared with the expectation in the first quarter, the growth rate of business activities has slowed down. Although the data in the first quarter is weak, it is expected to rebound in the next period of time, and the GDP growth rate in the second quarter of the United States may record strong growth.
Third, in addition to the above two factors, there are other factors that are also unfavorable to the price of gold.
In the French presidential election debate, Mark Hong was clearly ahead of the gold price. During the French presidential debate, the main candidate Mark Hong was in a clear leading position, which greatly eased the political risks in Europe.
In terms of gold mining, Shandong Jiaodong is rich in gold production capacity. Shandong Jiaodong became the third largest gold mining area in the world. Yu Haifeng, director of the Geological Exploration Department of the Ministry of Land and Resources, said that since 20 1 1, more than 70 large and medium-sized gold mines have been discovered in Jiaodong, Shandong Province, with a new gold resource reserve of more than 2,400 tons. Jiaodong has become the third largest gold mining area in the world, which has stabilized the position of China as the largest gold production base.
The US Treasury's research on issuing ultra-long-term bonds is not conducive to hedging gold prices. The US Treasury held talks with market participants on the evaluation of ultra-long-term bonds, which will be updated in the statement of future debt repayment meetings. If the Fed partially or completely stops reinvesting in US bonds, the Ministry of Finance needs to increase borrowing to fund the redemption of maturing bonds.
Trump's medical reform has turned around and the market's confidence in Trump has rebounded. Three US congressmen and party member changed their positions and supported the revised health care bill, saying that they might vote on Thursday, but they were not sure whether it would pass. Delegates may consider voting on the health care bill on Thursday. The health care amendment proposes to provide $8 billion for high-risk pools in the next five years. The possibility of customs clearance of the revised medical insurance bill is higher than that of the original.