10 10/month10/day, the latest financial and social financing data released by the People's Bank of China showed that the scale of new credit and social financing in China was considerable in the first three quarters, and the scale of new credit and social financing increased more than expected in September. So today, Bian Xiao is here to sort out the 2.47 trillion new loans in September. Let's have a look!
The policy effect shows that the credit structure improved significantly in September.
After the data rebounded in August, the growth rate of new credit and social financing in September exceeded expectations. Among them, new RMB loans in September increased by 8 108 billion yuan year-on-year, significantly higher than the 39 billion yuan in August; The increase in social integration changed from a small increase in August to an increase of 624.5 billion yuan. In the first three quarters of this year, RMB loans and social financing increased by 1.36 trillion yuan and 30 1 trillion yuan respectively.
Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst of Everbright Securities, said that the improvement of financial data in September was a comprehensive reflection of the joint efforts of many recent policies. At the same time, with the recovery of the kinetic energy of economic operation, the normal financing demand has also recovered accordingly.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, pointed out that the scale of new residential loans in September continued to increase by 654.38+092.3 billion yuan compared with last month, of which short-term loans increased by 303.8 billion yuan, which continued to improve on the basis of last month's growth, indicating that residents' consumer confidence continued to recover. At the same time, with the further increase of interest rate cuts, tax cuts and policies on both the supply and demand sides of the real estate market, market confidence has gradually recovered, the profit rate of real estate sales has improved, boosting the demand for mortgage loans of residents, and the medium and long-term loans of residents have increased by 345.6 billion yuan, the highest level since the third quarter.
In September, corporate (institutional) loans increased by 1.92 trillion yuan, which remained at a high level, with a substantial increase of 937 billion yuan year-on-year. Pang Yao, chief economist and research director of Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, pointed out that the increase in corporate loans was mainly due to the completion of 600 billion yuan of policy financial instruments in August and September, which not only supported national key infrastructure projects, but also boosted the growth of medium and long-term loans of enterprises through stable investment.
Wen Bin also said that in September, medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by nearly 1.35 trillion yuan, which became an important support for credit growth, driven by increasing the number of policy-oriented development financial instruments, guiding the increase of medium and long-term loans of manufacturing industries and creating special refinancing loans for equipment renovation. It is worth noting that in September, bill financing decreased by 82.7 billion yuan year-on-year, the first negative growth since this year, and the credit structure improved significantly.
Loans relay national debt to support social financing increment.
In September, the increase of social integration also exceeded expectations. The data shows that the scale of social financing increased by 3.53 trillion yuan in September, 624.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that RMB loans invested in the real economy increased by about 800 billion year-on-year. At the same time, two off-balance-sheet financing, entrusted loans and trust loans, also made great positive contributions to the year-on-year increase in the scale of social financing in that month.
Wen Bin pointed out that, driven by policy-oriented development financial instruments, entrusted loans increased by more than 654.38+050 billion yuan in September, maintaining a high level.
In September, national debt financing continued to increase substantially. Wang Qing said that the year-on-year decrease in national debt financing was related to the fact that the balance limit of special bonds of more than 500 billion yuan was not fully opened in September. With more and more credit support policies in the real economy, loan interest rates continue to decline, and loans relay national debt, which has become the main engine to promote wide credit.
The data also shows that RMB loans in the real economy accounted for 64.4% of the social financing scale in the same period in the first three quarters; National debt accounts for 2 1.3%.
Wide credit is expected to accelerate, and macro-control needs to be strengthened.
At the end of September, the year-on-year growth rate of M2, social financing scale and loan balance remained above 10%. From July to September, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 reached 12%,12% and 12. 1% respectively, all of which maintained double-digit growth rates, reflecting that finance maintained great support for the real economy and the effectiveness of monetary policy was constantly emerging.
On the other hand, in September, the narrow money (M 1) increased by 6.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.3 and 2.7 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year, respectively, reflecting the recovery of enterprise management and investment activities. In September, the growth gap between M 1 and M2 also narrowed.
Pang Wei said that in the future, the accelerated macroeconomic recovery and the economic prosperity of the real estate industry will be conducive to the landing of wide credit, the accelerated growth of social financing, the care of weak repair, the steady and moderate growth of money and credit, and the support of stable economic growth.
A few days ago, the third regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China pointed out that it is necessary to strengthen cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustment, intensify the implementation of prudent monetary policy, give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in aggregate and structure, take the initiative to deal with difficulties, provide stronger support for the real economy, and strive to stabilize employment and prices and stabilize the macroeconomic market.
Zhang Xu said that the current macro-control goal is also very clear, that is, to keep the economy running in a reasonable range and strive to achieve the best results. Therefore, in the current time window, the macro-control department will inevitably continue to play the combined effect of policies, expand effective demand, focus on stabilizing employment, stabilizing prices and stabilizing expectations, and actively protect and improve people's livelihood. In the next stage, there are still many policy tools that can be used, such as guiding LPR to go down again and reducing the deposit reserve ratio.