But the more this time, the more we farmers should be vigilant and not be carried away by the short-term rise.
There are two main reasons for the sharp rise in pig prices in the market: on the one hand, from the perspective of market supply and demand, strong cold air has recently ushered in the north, and the warm and humid airflow has strengthened in the south, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River will usher in continuous rainy weather, which not only restricts the supply and marketing of pigs, but also affects the listing of pork. The buying sentiment of traders in the downstream of the wholesale market increased sharply, which boosted the price increase sentiment of slaughterhouses; On the other hand, from the point of view of breeding, the large-scale pig enterprises in the southern region have increased their price sentiment, the amount of slaughter in the northern market has increased, the overall supply of pigs has been "temporarily tight", and the arrival of pigs in slaughterhouses in the market is insufficient. However, with the increase in the price of white pigs in the wholesale market, the sentiment of raising prices and collecting pigs in slaughterhouses has rebounded, leading to a sharp increase in domestic pig prices.
In addition, according to the "Pig Daily" report, spot anti-price sentiment resurfaced and futures rose again.
Yesterday, the main contract (LH2209) increased its position, with the highest price 19240 and the lowest price 187 15, and closed at 19 155 yuan/ton. The sales price of live pigs in Henan Province is 3,955 yuan/ton, holding 56,000 lots.
At the same time, according to Yongyi consulting data, the average price of live pigs nationwide was slightly adjusted yesterday.
The price in the northern market is on the strong side. Driven by the rising price in the south, the retail investors in the north are reluctant to sell again, and there is resistance to the acquisition of slaughtering enterprises, and the price of pigs has risen; The southern market price is firm, Guangdong transportation policy is strict, and the pig source in the province is tight, so the group enterprises take the lead in raising prices.
Overall, the gradual improvement of supply and demand fundamentals is the main factor supporting the sharp rebound of LH2209 contract price.
From the aspect of supply, according to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from July 2002/KLOC-0 to June 2002/KLOC-0, the number of fertile sows in China decreased month by month, which was about 6% lower than the high point in June, corresponding to the number of live pigs released in September this year.
From the demand side, the rising cost of breeding has further boosted the pig price center. Driven by the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day and other holiday effects, the second half of the year is the traditional peak season for pork consumption, which can provide effective support for pig prices.
However, at present, after all, it is in the off-season of seasonal consumption, and the terminal market consumption is relatively weak due to the COVID-19 epidemic. After the controlled hoarding of pork in some areas, the consumption potential of market residents is overdrawn in advance, and the impact of catering is great, and the consumption capacity of the terminal market is insufficient, which makes it difficult to support the continuous rise of pig prices. After the low temperature and rainy weather in recent days, it is not ruled out that the price of pigs may rise and fall, so farmers should pay attention to it.
On the occasion of the sharp rise in pig prices, some pig enterprises began to sell in large quantities, which greatly inhibited the rise in pig prices and laid a hidden danger for the rise in pig prices.
At the same time, the pig price rises too fast, which intensifies the risk to the market. After all, the current market is not really "short of pigs". As the price of pigs rises again, the farmers who fatten for the second time will be greatly discounted, and the mood of breeding will be countered. The superposition is still in the off-season of consumption, and the terminal demand is relatively weak. Therefore, pig prices are still under pressure. It is suggested that farmers carefully choose fences and be vigilant about pig prices.
According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs has increased in 24, decreased in 0, and remained flat in 2, and the rising areas accounted for 92% of all the monitored areas. The whole hog market shows a "large-scale rise" trend.
Judging from the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises, the procurement difficulty of pigs in slaughter enterprises in northern China has weakened, the price constraint of white pigs has increased relatively, and the overall upward momentum of pigs is insufficient.
The pig price of breeding group showed a majority increase, the enthusiasm of traders for receiving goods was obviously weakened, and the phenomenon of pig price premium in group pig farms was weakened.
The number of live pigs released by the leading group continued to increase or decrease, the number of live pigs released in key areas increased significantly, and the increase in pig prices slowed down significantly.
Market sentiment has changed, and a small number of traders have a certain bearish mood.
The ex-factory price of white striped pigs in northern slaughter enterprises rose by 500- 1000 yuan/ton, and the enthusiasm of downstream traders for receiving goods became obviously worse. The increase is too large, and the ex-factory price of white pigs in some enterprises has been adjusted twice.
Early warning of pig price trend tomorrow: combined with the recent analysis of pig market factors, it is expected that the pig price will show a phenomenon of "stable and rising more" tomorrow, and some areas in the north show signs of weak adjustment.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the live pig market, grasp the market dynamics, collect and share. I believe that with your help, the price of pigs will continue to rise tomorrow.