(A) the game between the main force and the policy:
1) The management's work determines the nature of the big blue chip: at present, the management's achievements are enormous, not only completing the long March of share-trading reform with extraordinary perseverance and confidence, but also successfully launching the largest IPO in the world, which has taken a big step to stabilize the A-share market and improve the overall quality of A-shares. At present, the main task of management is to prepare stock index futures and take precautions against risks from both the system and the market.
The management said that after the introduction of stock index futures, we don't want big ups and downs to affect the normal operation of the market. This objectively requires that the price of the underlying stock of stock index futures should be within a reasonable valuation range. Therefore, this round of index stock market should be attributed to the return of value, and generally there will not be much room for growth. Small and medium-sized investors must be fully rational when pursuing index stocks, otherwise it will easily become the object of elephant dancing and falling into the trap set by the main force. Of course, for some sectors with low valuation, such as highways and steel, you can still take the opportunity to intervene.
2) The main force is diverted from east to west, crossing the ocean: In the current situation of structural differentiation, in the defensive voice of the market, the index blue-chip stocks do perform well, but things are always dialectical, and the safety characteristics of the index stocks can easily be transformed into the future anti-rising characteristics, because inciting the index stocks is also thankless for the main force, which is both costly and time-consuming, and the effect of making money is often half the effort.
Not long ago, the three quarterly reports showed that the positions of funds and other institutions were around 70%. In other words, the fund's view of the market outlook should be optimistic, but why have there been many defensive voices in the market recently? This column thinks that this is a trick of the main force, to cooperate and to divert attention from the West. On the one hand, the main force relies on the good news of stock index futures and margin financing and securities lending to incite index stocks, thus raising the value center of the overall market and creating more space for the pull-up of market stocks. On the other hand, the main force attracts the attention of the market by pulling up the index stocks, attracting retail investors to follow suit, thus causing structural blood loss in the market. In this way, the main force easily washed away the floating chips of heavyweights, laying the foundation for the later pull-up; Or collect high-quality chips abandoned by the market at a low price to prepare for next year's market.
Generally speaking, investors' current strategy should be to stick to both hands. On the one hand, they should adhere to the principle of chasing high-priced stocks with valuation as an indicator, and strive to avoid being stuck at the top of the mountain. On the other hand, we should keep track of high-quality growth stocks after a period of adjustment, such as some military, real estate and machinery institutions. For those stocks that are fully adjusted, they can be absorbed on dips and gradually open positions. Because, in the medium term, these stocks are the main battlefield for the main funds to make profits.
(B) the main capital game:
In the case of structural adjustment, large-cap blue-chip stocks with defensive significance have been sought after by mainstream funds. In addition, closed-end funds with high discount rate are also one of the main varieties of regular troops. At present, the main funds have pushed the speculation of large-cap blue-chip stocks to a climax, and partial withdrawal is the next step of the main funds. It is expected that the main funds in the early stage may turn to the speculation of some leading plates.
(C) the game between small and medium-sized retail investors:
Suggestions can be held patiently for large blue-chip stocks or some growth stocks.
Disk X-ray: It is expected that the market will continue to rise tomorrow and close Xiaoyang.
Opportunity plate expectation: It is expected that some military and machinery stocks will perform better tomorrow.
Market risk point: the speculation of core blue-chip stocks has gradually entered a climax, and the valuation space has been relatively reduced. Watch out for rallies.
Protective measures: It is recommended to reduce pounds on rallies and properly control positions. raise high