International market analysis and forecast
In last month's review, the author once said that even when other basic metals strengthened, LME broke through the resistance level of 1250 USD/ton in three months, and it was difficult to return to the previous high point, and it was likely to stop at 1320? Resistance range 1350 USD/ton. In May, the lead price began to fall after overshooting1$320/ton failed. The weakness of lead price increase is mainly due to weak fundamentals, and the speed and extent of decline are also inseparable from fundamentals. So, what are the disadvantages of fundamentals?
First of all, the most obvious thing is that LME inventory continues to increase. At the end of May, LME lead inventory has rebounded to 1 10000 tons, an increase of more than 10000 tons compared with the end of April, the highest level since 2003 12, among which unwritten warehouse receipts still account for a large proportion. Higher inventory is not conducive to the rise of lead prices. Secondly, the spot discount of futures continued to expand in March, reaching $25/ton in May, the highest level since 1990. The spot price is lower than the futures price to some extent, reflecting the relatively loose supply in the commodity market.
Recently, the report released by the international lead-zinc research group is also unfavorable to the lead price. In 2006, the organization revised the lead market balance from the previous shortage to the surplus. According to the latest forecast of ILZSG, the global supply of refined lead in 2006 was 55,000 tons, compared with the previous forecast of 24,000 tons. The western world has an oversupply of 67,000 tons of refined lead, while the previous forecast was a shortage of 56,5438+0,000 tons.
At present, when other basic metals are adjusted and the direction is unknown, the price of lead has chosen to fall. So, what is the price of lead in the later period? In the near future, the price of lead will not perform well if the fundamentals will not change much, and even if other basic metals regain their upward trend, they will not rebound to the previous high quickly.
However, I don't think that the lead market has turned to this point for three reasons: First, the whole basic metal market has not shown signs of turning, and the fund will not give up this rare and excellent commodity market easily. Second, despite the above unfavorable factors in lead fundamentals, there is no possibility of a substantial surplus. In terms of production, due to the lack of professional talents and equipment, the development of foreign mines is not as fast as expected, and only Magellan mine has been put into production in the past two years; In terms of consumption, with the recovery of American economy, the demand for lead in the United States is still quite strong. Third, the change of China's refined lead export policy will bring pressure to the market. The relevant departments of China Municipal Government intend to cancel the export tax rebate for refined lead, while the previous standard was 13%. At present, the examination and approval work is in progress and may be implemented as early as July. If so, the reduction of 13% tax rebate will inevitably affect the export volume of refined lead in China and put pressure on countries and regions that rely on refined lead in China.
It is expected that the LME lead price will not fall below the June 1000 yuan/ton mark, but it is unlikely to stand above 1 150 USD/ton again, and will fluctuate between the two.
Analysis and forecast of domestic market price
In May, domestic lead prices also rose sharply. At the beginning of the month 1 # lead price hovered below 1 1000 yuan/ton. Driven by the international price in the middle of the month, it quickly stood above 1 1000 yuan/ton, and even once approached 12000 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the price of lead fell back to the level at the beginning of the month. In May, the average monthly price of domestic capital market was 1 1069 yuan/ton, which was 2 19 yuan higher than that in April. The average monthly price of major enterprises 1 1000 yuan/ton, up from April 180 yuan. The domestic price of lead concentrate has not changed much, and the monthly average price of 60% grade is about 8800 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as that in April.
According to the latest statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in April, the domestic refined lead in China was 23 1 10,000 tons, 1? In April, the cumulative output reached 870,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 30.75%; In April, the domestic lead concentrate in China was 55,000 tons, and the cumulative output in the first four months was 6,543,800 tons, up 654.38+0,655.5438+0% year-on-year. According to the latest customs statistics, China exported 48,000 tons of refined lead in April, 1? In April, it accumulated 20 1 10,000 tons, up 45.1%year-on-year; In April, China imported 92,000 tons of lead concentrate (in kind, the same below), 1? In April, the cumulative volume reached 366,000 tons, up 406,654.38+0% year-on-year.
The positive export of lead-acid batteries and the steady growth of domestic automobile production keep the consumption of refined lead in China prosperous. According to the latest statistics of China Customs, in April, China exported 6.29 million lead-acid batteries for internal combustion engines1747,600, up 25.82% year-on-year, and 45.68 million lead-acid batteries in other fields, up 2 1.4% year-on-year. It is estimated that the growth rate of automobile production and sales will be above 20% in April. Since June 5438+ 10, 2006, the ban on electric bicycles in Beijing has increased the demand for lead-acid batteries.
In May, the most interesting news in the domestic lead market was that the export tax rebate for refined lead was about to be cancelled. For production enterprises, the export tax rebate rate 13% has a great influence on the profits of enterprises; The direct impact of the cancellation of export tax rebate for refined lead on the lead market is that the domestic supply of refined lead will increase. Although domestic consumption is relatively strong, with the continuous increase of refined lead production in China, domestic supply is likely to be surplus, the competitive sales among enterprises will become more intense, and the lead price will further drop. It is estimated that the price of 1 # refined lead is likely to fall below 10000 yuan/ton in June.