In order to save the price of pigs, after the pig-grain ratio fell below 5: 1 in June, the superior opened the storage channel for reserve meat, first 20,000 tons, then10.3 million tons, and then 20,000 tons. The purchasing and storage of 53,000 tons will once again raise the pig price to the price around 8 yuan. However, under the background of production capacity recovery and low consumption, pig prices are still easy to fall and difficult to rise. Throughout July and early August, the price of pigs has been falling.
However, in the last month, pork prices have rebounded, so what are the representative stocks of the pork sector? Before talking about individual stocks, let's talk about our analytical logic, which is the judgment standard of the stage of the market, sector and individual stocks.
Whether it is market, plate or stock, it can be divided into four stages: energy storage period, climbing period, fatigue period and downhill period.
To measure the price stage, the first thing to look at is the moving average.
Here, we use a 30-year moving average.
When the 30-day moving average changes from falling to leveling, this is the first feature of entering the energy storage period, and it is suggested to pay attention. Because the main attraction at the bottom stage is often quiet, the price fluctuation at this stage is relatively stable, and there is a sense of trend brewing, and the overall transaction volume is shrinking. This stage, that is, the storage period, is the stage of selecting good stocks.
When the price breaks through the important resistance level and the moving average changes from flat to upward, then at this time, it means entering the climbing period. At this stage, it is mainly held.
When the moving average changes from rising to leveling again, accompanied by sharp fluctuations in price and volume, this time is the fatigue period. Prompt the main shipment. This stage is also a profit-taking stage.
When the price falls below the important support level and the moving average begins to turn from flat to falling, it is a hint that our price has entered the downhill period. What we have to do at this time is to stop, wait and see, and wait for the price to enter a new strong period again.
First, let's look at new hope.
Since the third quarter of last year, New Hope has started a long road of decline. Even the decline far exceeds the decline in pig prices.
From 40 yuan last September, it once fell to the lowest 10 yuan this year.
This is not a waist cut, but a knee cut. The biggest drop is over 70%.
However, judging from the recent trend, some changes have taken place.
First of all, the price began to wear the EMA, and the decline of EMA began to slow down.
Secondly, from the perspective of transaction volume, the transaction volume near 10 yuan is obviously enlarged.
From the current point of view, although there is no big framework to break away from the downhill period, there are signs of phase transition. It's just that the follow-up may still be repeated.
Look at Dabei Nong again,
The trend of Dabeinong is actually much better than New Hope.
First of all, from the perspective of decline, the decline of Dabeinong is much smaller than that of New Hope.
Secondly, from the trend point of view, the new hope is still in the framework of the downhill period. However, in the last week, Dabei Nong has broken through the horizontal consolidation energy storage period that lasts for half a year as shown in the box in the figure and started to enter the climbing period.
However, the upper part of Dabeinong is not Ma Pingchuan, and the vicinity of the previous high point 12 yuan is an obvious previous resistance area.
Next, let's take a look at Mu Yuan, a big shot in the pig industry.
Muyuan shares, the current 30-week moving average is down, and the price is also running below the moving average most of the time. It is currently in a downhill period.
Its trend is somewhat similar to the new hope. It also experienced a big drop and then rebounded. But the decline is far less than the new hope.
Finally, let's look at the pig crocodile on the GEM, Wen's shares,
The current trend of Wen's shares is very classic, belonging to the classic V-shaped reversal trend.
That is, after the price goes through the falling stage, there is no bottom stage or the bottom stage rises directly.
After this long and long decline, Wen's share price has slowly recovered from the bottom near 12 yuan.
From the current point of view, the 30-week moving average shows signs of upward bending, and the price has also closed above the 30-week moving average for several weeks, which is recognized as the climbing period.
Judging from the trend of the last two years, New Hope and Muyuan are still in the framework of downhill period, although there are signs of phase transition. Although Wen's shares have entered the climbing period, there are still many locks on them because of the previous plunge. Judging from the current trend, Dabeinong has been in the climbing period, and the upper resistance is relatively small. Judging from the increase, it is also the biggest increase in the last two years, and the trend is stronger.
In order to make the pig breeding industry in China develop smoothly now and in the future, recently, six departments, including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and the National Development and Reform Commission, jointly voiced their opinions, giving the development direction of pig breeding industry in China in the future, and the pig breeding industry in China is bound to undergo major changes. What impact will these changes have on the free-range households that occupy the main body of pig breeding?
I. Policy support
1, all localities should arrange breeding land reasonably, and must not dismantle large-scale farmers in violation of laws and regulations, require stable pig loans, and must not arbitrarily draw, limit or cut off loans; 2. Vigorously develop pig policy insurance; 3, shall not arbitrarily expand the forbidden area, and repel farmers.
Impact on free-range families:
Although it is required not to dismantle pig farms in violation of laws and regulations, this pig farm requires large-scale pig farms, and the minimum requirement for large-scale pig farms in China is to slaughter more than 500 fat pigs every year, but now a large number of pig farms in rural areas can not meet the requirements. The implication is that these pig farms that do not meet the scale indicators can be dismantled.
Although stable loans are required and loans are not allowed, the vast majority of rural free-range households cannot meet the conditions of bank loans, and there is basically no loan, so this policy has nothing to do with free-range households.
Pig policy insurance is a good thing for rural free-range farmers. As a free-range farmer, what is lacking is the ability to resist risks. Once serious diseases such as non-plague occur in pig farms, it will be difficult to turn over in the current market downturn. With policy insurance, free-range farmers can insure pigs, so that even if pigs are not infected, the losses can be kept to a minimum, and it is possible to turn over in the future.
It is good news that free-range farmers do not arbitrarily expand the forbidden areas and do not exclude farmers. Since 20 16, many pig farmers have been forced to stop raising. Although the requirements for environmental protection have been relaxed in various places in order to restore production capacity after the 20 19 production capacity dropped sharply, after the production capacity is restored this year, the free-range farmers are the first to suffer.
Second, the countercyclical regulation mechanism.
We will stabilize the annual stock of fertile sows in China at 43 million, with a minimum of 40 million. If the monthly change exceeds 50%, guide pig farmers to make up the column; if it rises, guide pig farmers to eliminate low-productivity sows, and reduce 10% or lose money for more than 3 months. All localities should start rescue and subsidy measures.
Impact on free-range families:
This not only has an impact on free-range households, but also has epoch-making significance for the whole pig industry. Previously, the pig industry lacked effective data guidance. When the pig price went up, it rushed to make up for it. When the pig price went down, it was eliminated, which led to the skyrocketing pig price in China, which was very unfavorable to the stable production and supply of pork in China. Under the guidance of reasonable data, both large-scale pig farms and free-range households can arrange pig production reasonably according to accurate data. If the column is replenished, the column will be eliminated, so that the production capacity will be stabilized in a reasonable range, and the prices of live pigs and pork will also be stabilized in a reasonable range. Farmers can earn money, and consumers don't need to eat high-priced pork, thus achieving multiple goals.
Third, strengthen the management of large-scale pig farms.
It is required to record the large-scale pig farms with an annual output of more than 500. After filing, the pig farm should not be easily removed. If it is really necessary to dismantle it, reasonable economic compensation shall be given.
Impact on free-range families:
This article is aimed at large-scale pig farms and is a reassurance for large-scale pig farms. Pig farms with reasonable procedures no longer need to live in fear. But it is not friendly to free-range households. If the free-range households fail to meet the requirements, they will not be able to put on record or face the risk of being dismantled at any time. Moreover, after the large-scale pig farms are stabilized, the pig prices in China will also enter a relatively stable state, and those free-range farmers who make money by taking advantage of the market ups and downs will lose the opportunity of speculation.
Four, the establishment of market early warning and disease prevention and control mechanism
Relevant departments are required to strengthen data collection and release, so that pig farmers can get real and effective information at the first time. Then it is to promote regional prevention and control of major animal diseases.
Impact on free-range families:
These two points are good and bad for free-range households. The advantage is that with effective data, it can be decided whether to eliminate or fill the column according to the situation, effectively cope with the changes in the pig cycle, shorten the loss period and extend the profit period. Non-epidemic diseases are still one of the biggest threats to large and small pig farms at present. Regional prevention and control at the national level is helpful to the stability of diseases in various regions, and it is easier for free-range farmers who lack effective biosafety measures.
The disadvantage is that large-scale pig farms have stronger control over the scale of breeding than free-range households, and the future is to fight for production performance, so free-range households have disadvantages in this respect. After the regional prevention and control of major epidemics, pigs will be mainly slaughtered locally, and the right to speak of slaughtering enterprises will be enhanced, making it more difficult for pig prices to rise.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) Coordinated development of large and small pig farms
Prior to this, China's pig breeding has been developing in the direction of collectivization and scale. This document clarifies that the status of free-range households and large-scale pig farms is equal, and requires the coordinated development of large and small pig farms, free-range households and large-scale pig farms.
Impact on free-range families:
It is of great significance to the development of free-range households if they can be upgraded to the same status as large-scale pig farms and given financial and technical support. After all, free-range households lack capital and technology, and only with help can they develop better.
Although free-range farmers play an important role in pig breeding in China, they may not know where to go, not only their superiors, but also the free-range farmers themselves. In fact, the existence of free-range households in rural areas not only solved the employment problems of many farmers, but also helped some poor areas get rid of poverty. It can also reduce the problem of manure treatment in large-scale pig farms. Free-range households were and will be indispensable in the future. From the joint voice of the six departments, we can also find that some policies are also tilting towards free-range households. With the regularization of free-range households, pig breeding in China will definitely develop in a better direction.