The main factors that affect the price of spot crude oil are the following:

1. The influence of supply and demand

The supply and demand relationship affects the market pricing of any commodity Fundamental factors, fuel oil is no exception. As my country's economy continues to develop at a rapid pace, my country's demand for energy has also grown rapidly. By 2003, domestic fuel oil production could only meet half of domestic demand, while imported resources accounted for half of the total supply. The increase or decrease in import quantities It greatly affects the supply of domestic fuel oil. Therefore, the import and export data of fuel oil published by authoritative departments is an important indicator for judging the supply and demand situation. The Singapore Common Spot Price (MOPS) is the benchmark price of fuel oil in Singapore and the benchmark price of imported fuel oil in my country. Therefore, MOPS and its discount status reflect the cost of imported fuel oil and have a more direct impact on my country's fuel oil prices. .

2. The impact of crude oil price trends

Fuel oil is a downstream product of crude oil. The trend of crude oil prices is an important factor affecting the supply and demand of fuel oil. Therefore, the price trend of fuel oil There is a strong correlation with crude oil. According to research on price trends in recent years, the correlation between WTI crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 180CST high-sulfur fuel oil in the Singapore fuel oil spot market is as high as 90%. WTI refers to U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil, and its futures contract Listed on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The main international crude oil futures varieties include IPE, which refers to North Sea Brent crude oil and is listed on the British International Petroleum Exchange. The price trends of WTI and IPE are two important basis for judging the price trend of fuel oil.

3. The influence of production policies of oil-producing countries, especially OPEC members

Since the 1980s, non-OPEC oil production has accounted for approximately two-thirds of world oil production. , has declined in recent years, but its remaining recoverable oil reserves are limited, and the production policies of various countries are not unified, so its impact on crude oil prices cannot be compared with that of OPEC. OPEC countries control most of the world's oil resources. For the common interests of the world, the agreements on production and oil prices reached between member states can be supported by most countries, so the organization plays a major role in the international oil market. plays an irreplaceable role, and its production policy has a significant influence on crude oil prices.

4. Impact on international and domestic economies

Fuel oil is an important energy source in the economic development of various countries, especially in the power industry, petrochemical industry, transportation industry, building materials and light industry The scope of industrial use is becoming more and more extensive, and the demand for fuel oil is closely related to economic development. When analyzing macroeconomics, two indicators are very important. One is the economic growth rate, or GDP growth rate, and the other is the industrial production growth rate. When the economy grows, the demand for fuel oil will also increase, thereby driving up the price of fuel oil. When the economy declines, the shrinking demand for fuel oil will cause the price to fall. Therefore, to grasp and predict the future trend of fuel oil prices, it is very important to grasp the evolution of the macro economy.

5. The influence of geopolitics

Among the factors that affect oil prices, geopolitics is one of the important factors that cannot be ignored. In geopolitics, domestic revolutions or riots in the world's major oil-producing countries, wars in the Middle East, etc., especially the recent spread and intensification of terrorism around the world, will have an important impact on oil prices. Looking back at the oil price trend over the past thirty years, it is not difficult to find that major changes in the geopolitics of the world's major oil-producing countries or the Middle East will be reflected in the oil price trend.

6. Speculative factors

International hedge funds and other speculative funds are the most active speculative forces in various oil markets. Since funds have a deeper understanding of macro fundamentals and have "prophecy" Therefore, there is a very good correlation between the fund's position and the rise and fall of oil prices. Although the rise and fall of prices may be excessive under the influence of fund participation, understanding the fund's trends is also the key to grasping the market.

7. Influence on relevant markets

Influence of exchange rate. International fuel oil transactions are generally priced in U.S. dollars, and several major international currencies currently implement a floating exchange rate system. The international fuel oil price priced in U.S. dollars is bound to be affected by the exchange rate. The impact of interest rates. Interest rates are an important means for the government to regulate the economy. Based on changes in interest rates, we can understand the government's economic policies and predict the evolution of economic development and its impact on the demand for crude oil and fuel oil. Therefore, both the exchange rate market and the interest rate market have a considerable impact on oil prices.