The Financial Times, which is in charge of the central bank, quoted the relevant person in charge of the central bank as saying on Monday night that the implementation conditions for the inclusion of off-balance sheet financing in the macro-prudential evaluation of broad credit indicators have been met and will be formally included in the first quarter of 20 17. Specifically, off-balance-sheet wealth management assets will be included in the broad credit scope after deducting cash and deposits, and the broad credit indicators are still mainly assessed by the year-on-year growth rate of the balance.
Now, try to translate it in "Mandarin" for everyone:
This means that from the first quarter of 20 17, the central bank will strengthen the supervision of financial institutions, and the "off-balance-sheet financing" that was not strictly managed before will also be more formally supervised. As of June this year, the scale of off-balance-sheet wealth management of banks is about 26.28 trillion, of which 17.74% is cash and bank deposits, which can be excluded from the broad credit scope according to the new regulations of the central bank. The rest are 40.4% bonds (10.6 trillion) and 16.5% non-standard assets. , need to be included.
As can be seen from the above data, banks buy creditors mainly for off-balance sheet financing, and there are many gray areas, such as illegal holding and fund-raising bonds. These behaviors: first, adding leverage to bank financing can get higher income to please and win customers; Second, you can temporarily conceal the loss; Third, it can realize the transfer of interests and engage in corruption. Therefore, the new rules of the central bank will mainly affect the bond market, which will have a greater short-term negative impact.
The bond market fell a lot, the risks began to be exposed, and some naked swimmers began to appear. More problems will be exposed in the future, which will have a psychological impact and affect the stock market. In fact, there will also be some institutions that need to sell stocks to fill the loopholes because of the exposure of bond market risks. Therefore, the stock market will also face pressure in the short term. What's more, this is bad for the fixed income of brokers and the wealth management business of banks, so bank stocks and brokerage stocks are under pressure.
Since insurance companies are also investors in the bond market, the sharp decline in the bond market will affect insurance stocks, which is short-term negative for them.
In this regard, Guotai Junan pointed out that off-balance sheet financial management was formally incorporated into MPA supervision, shadow banking supervision was upgraded again, and the era of financial expansion and prosperity of small and medium-sized banks ended; The micro-trading mode of the bond market is facing collapse, and the impact of leverage reduction is still not over; The restructuring of institutional assets and liabilities is still under pressure.
In addition, the central bank may have new actions.
Reuters quoted a source as saying on Monday night that the Bank of China requires financial institutions to reasonably and moderately increase assets such as stock trading next year; Require financial institutions to strengthen liquidity management and adjust the structure of assets and liabilities to effectively control liquidity risks; At the same time, financial institutions are required to maintain steady and orderly growth of off-balance-sheet wealth management business at the end of the year to avoid rushing headlong into it.
There has been a sharp reversal in the bond market.
Affected by the bad news such as the continuous fermentation of the "radish chapter" incident of Guohai Securities, the spread of institutional credit crisis, and the fact that off-balance sheet financing will be formally included in general credit next year, the main contract of treasury bonds futures plummeted today, with 10-year treasury bonds futures opening down 1. 13% and 5-year treasury bonds futures falling by 0.70%.
In the afternoon, most contracts of treasury bonds futures turned red, and the main contract 10-year treasury bonds futures T 1703 closed up 0. 17% to 94.750 yuan.
In terms of funds, according to the announcement of the central bank today, the central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations of 250 billion yuan by means of interest rate bidding. 7-day, 14 and 28-day varieties were15.5 billion yuan, 65 billion yuan and 30 billion yuan, respectively, and the winning interest rates continued to be flat at 2.25%, 2.40% and 2.55% respectively. As the amount of reverse repurchase due today was 85 billion yuan, the net investment in the open market on Tuesday was 654.38+065 billion yuan, a substantial increase from yesterday's 65 billion yuan. However, there are still 60 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits due today.
Analysts pointed out that under the impact of deleveraging and liquidity, the market tends to overshoot relative to the fundamentals, paving the way for the next round of opportunities. At present, the bond yield is close to or even exceeds the stock market yield. Although the market sentiment has yet to be calmed down and the market is still in the left stage, there is no need to continue to panic.
The staged layout is coming.
Today, the market fell again, testing the support of the 3 100 integer mark and the semi-annual line one after another, and even fell below the 3 100 mark in intraday trading. For today's market decline, the leading decline of some large weight plates and the weakness of weight plates are the direct reasons for the decline of the stock index, which makes the market center of gravity gradually move down. Although the stock index has stepped back again, there are many bright spots in the market. In particular, the recent oversold growth enterprise market stock index, which has maintained a sideways volatility in the near future, may become the key point for the market to break its position.
In the short-term market, multiple important supports will play an obvious role.
The first is the support of the 3 100 integer mark. The vicinity of 3 100 is a concentrated area where small high points have appeared continuously in the past few months. In the process of falling, it is obvious that the supporting force formed in this area is obviously greater than the pressure formed in this area; And recently, the stock index has tested this position for more than four times in a row, and the market has fallen below. At present, this supporting position is effective. And the position of this interval just coincides with the position of the half-year line. Under the superposition of double important supports, theoretically, the support strength at this position will be relatively large.
Secondly, technical indicators also have strong support. The MACD green column of Shanghai Composite Index is gradually shortened; The KDJ indicator is about to appear passive form; The lower rail of the BOLL channel can also provide some support. The downward trend of the market has been controlled, and it is expected that the consolidation intention will be more obvious in the short term.
From a comprehensive analysis, near the end of the year, there is no serious negative factor in the market except for some shortage of funds, and the central bank is also solving the shortage of funds through relevant monetary instruments. Coupled with the superposition of multiple supports, the staged low point of the market is about to appear, and the staged layout has arrived. Investors are advised to actively do some high-selling and low-sucking, and investors who are ready to lay out the Spring Festival red envelope market should also make some strategic preparations at this time.