The first type: make a quick decision, and oil prices rise and fall, which has little impact on the world economy.

If the war goes smoothly within three months and the United States wins, the international oil price (WTI) will soar to about 40-45 dollars per barrel. Although the tension in the Gulf will cause panic in the international crude oil market in the short term, it will not last long. As the international oil market has formed a basic pattern of oversupply for a long time, with the clarity of the war situation and the end of the war, the international oil price will quickly fall back to about 20 dollars per barrel, the confidence of consumers and investors in various countries will be restored, enterprises will begin to expand their investment, and the stock market will show a rebound trend. If this happens, the adverse impact of the war on the world economy will be relatively small, and the world economy will still maintain a moderate recovery.

Because of the disparity in military, economic and scientific strength between the United States and Iraq, and because the United States has already made full preparations for war, the probability of a quick victory is the greatest.

The second type: the war is protracted, oil prices are hovering at a high level, and the recovery of the world economy is delayed.

If the advance speed of the war exceeds the expectation of the United States, it will take about six months for the United States to win. Therefore, as long as the war is confined to Iraq, there will be no major problems in the world crude oil supply and there is little possibility of an oil crisis. In this case, the international oil price may rise to $45/barrel in a short time, and then hover at a relatively high level of around $ 35-40/barrel until the war situation is completely clear.

But the prolongation of the war will slow down the process of world economic recovery. The general conclusion of international research is that if the oil price rises by 10 USD a year, the annual growth rate of the world economy will decrease by 0.5 percentage points, and that of developing countries will decrease by 0.75 percentage points.

Considering that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein experienced the Middle East War, the Iran-Iraq War and the Gulf War of 199 1, and that the war launched by the United States did not receive the extensive support of the international community like the last Gulf War, it is possible to prolong the war, but the probability is less than the possibility of the former.

The third type: the war is expanding, the oil price is out of control, and the world economy is seriously declining.

If Iraq holds the attitude of "larger foe", it will not only blow up its own oil fields, but also launch attacks on American allies such as Israel, and the war will spread to neighboring countries of Iraq, causing political, social and economic turmoil in some Gulf countries, causing the Arab world to unite against the United States and forming a conflict between the United States and the entire Islamic world. Then the oil price may get out of control and stay at a high level of around $40 per barrel for a long time, leading to a serious recession of the world economy.

Considering that Iraq suffered an economic blockade of 10 years, its military and economic strength was greatly worse than before, and the United States and its allies carried out strategic defense, I am afraid that Iraq is unable to lead the war to its neighbors. So the probability of this possibility is very small.