1. Among profitable customers, 85.2% of the profits come from profits within five orders. After deducting these five orders, most of these customers' transactions are losses. The characteristics of this profit five-order: the holding date is basically about 2 months, which is basically a unilateral market;
2. For customers who trade more than 10 times a day on average, the 3-year average yield is-79.2%;
For customers who trade more than 5 times a day on average, the 3-year average yield is-55%;
For customers whose daily transactions exceed 1 time, the 3-year average yield is-31.5%;
For customers who trade more than 0.3 times a day, the 3-year average yield is12%;
For customers who trade 0./kloc-0 times a day, the 3-year average yield is 59%.
3. All stop-loss orders, if uneven, have a 98.8% probability of turning losses into profits in the next two weeks;
4. If all the take profit orders are unfair, there is a 9 1.3% probability of achieving greater profits in the next two weeks;
5. The yield of all customers presents an approximate normal distribution. Unfortunately, the average value of this normal distribution is-14%.
So the conclusion is cruel to most people:
1, it is wrong for ordinary people to enter this market;
2. day trading, basically sentenced you to death;
3. Don't expect to profit from short-term trading with high selling and low sucking, and don't speculate on futures by intuition;
If you want to make a profit, wait patiently for the opportunity.
There is a saying:
All stop-loss orders, if uneven, have a 98.8% probability of turning losses into profits in the next two weeks;
This sentence is worth tasting, which means that most stop losses are wrong.
This figure is actually incorrect. The correct one is 70%, which means that our 70% stop loss is wrong.
Why are most stop losses wrong? Do you try not to stop loss?
Most of the time, the market is volatile, and a small part is trend.
This means that the market always goes up and down, and most of the time it fluctuates within a range.
Therefore, many times, the market has no trend. Into the quilt cover, there is always a chance to get rid of the ups and downs.
But the problem is that once the trend comes out, it usually appears for a short time. Once it comes out, it will go up or down a lot. If you try to solve the problem automatically at this time, you are dead.
Therefore, people who explode or suffer heavy losses do not die in constant fighting, nor do they often suffer heavy losses. But once or twice, I died. Because I am used to the past and can't stop loss, I am used to it. So as soon as the trend came out, I died. In fact, the people who broke the warehouse basically died in several contrarian events, that is, they lived for a long time and died for a short time.
Therefore, 70% wrong stop loss is better than stop loss, because even if there is no stop loss at 1%, it will lead to your short position. Especially after the trend comes out, you must stop without hesitation, because after the trend comes out, it is faster and more extensive. The less stop loss, the less stop loss.
Therefore, the risk comes first, and the loss is not as good as the stop loss. It's an opportunity, but it's not right, that is, making less money can keep us alive, and living will give us a chance to make a comeback.
At the same time, you can't get into the habit of not stopping losses. Indeed, you can get rid of it without stopping a few times, and even bring good profits, so it is easy for you to have the illusion that you can make money without stopping, and stopping is wrong. Once you have this kind of thinking, although you can get away with it many times, you may die once or twice.