The meeting emphasized the strict differentiated housing credit policy, and multiple housing loans are expected to be tightened. As for the second home loan, the down payment ratio stipulated by the policy is not less than 40%, and the interest rate is 1. 1 times of the benchmark interest rate. However, it has not been fully implemented in the actual implementation process, especially after the relaxation of the mortgage policy since the end of 2008, the second home loan policy is ineffective. In the monthly report in March, it was pointed out that the main reason for the small transaction peak in March was the relaxation of bank credit. According to our field research, the same is true. In many areas, the second suite still got a preferential interest rate of 15%. Combined with the spirit of the national conference call of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development the day before yesterday, it is considered that the possibility of strictly implementing multi-suite mortgage in some cities is increasing. The real implementation of the second home loan policy will hit the market with relatively large investment demand. In the case that the rigid demand for self-occupation and improvement is suppressed by the rise in housing prices, the future transaction will not be optimistic. This is also the fundamental reason why we have been indifferent to the so-called "volume and price rise together" in March, and the fundamentals of the property market will change with policy changes.
The meeting emphasized the responsibility of local governments. The meeting emphasized strengthening housing security, increasing the effective supply of housing construction land, and emphasizing the responsibility of local governments. Only in this way can the policy be implemented. Judging from the recent policies issued by various localities, various specific policies are also being stepped up.
The detailed rules for the implementation of the conference spirit will be gradually introduced, and the market will no longer be negative. Before the the State Council executive meeting, various ministries and commissions have been in full swing to continue to regulate the slightly out-of-control property market. The negative market voice repeatedly mentioned from the beginning will gradually fade away, which may be a new topic of how to face the great changes in the industry structure.
First, emphasize the study and formulation of a reasonable housing consumption tax policy and strengthen the expectation of tax holding.
Since the beginning of this year, with the rise of housing prices, the current real estate tax system has obvious shortcomings in regulating the real estate market. The soaring housing prices have intensified the rumors of property taxes in various places, including the special real estate tax and real estate retention tax that were previously rumored in Chongqing and Shanghai. We believe that it is the general trend to introduce the holding link tax in the future, which is in line with the state's policy of improving tax control. In addition, we believe that the introduction of property tax is not simply to suppress housing prices, but mainly to maintain the long-term healthy development of real estate, while giving local governments a stable tax source and clarifying the financial relationship between the central and local governments. In addition, it is worth thinking about how the investment and speculative demand will change once the holding link tax is born. Therefore, it is inaccurate to blindly think that the introduction of this tax has little impact on the industry.
Second, the meeting emphasized strict differentiated housing credit policies, and multiple home loans are expected to be tightened.
With regard to the second home loan, the policy stipulates that the down payment ratio shall be no less than 40% and the interest rate shall be 1. 1 times of the benchmark interest rate. However, it has not been fully implemented in the actual implementation process, especially after the relaxation of the mortgage policy since the end of 2008, the second home loan policy is ineffective. In the monthly report in March, it was pointed out that the main reason for the small peak in March was the relaxation of bank credit. According to our field research, the same is true. In many areas, the second suite can also get a 15% discount interest rate. Combined with the spirit of the national conference call of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development the day before yesterday, we believe that the possibility of strictly implementing multi-suite mortgages in some cities is increasing.
If the second-home loan policy is really implemented, it will hit the market with relatively large investment demand at present, and the future transaction is not optimistic when the rigid demand for self-occupation and improvement is suppressed by rising house prices. This is also the fundamental reason why we have been indifferent to the so-called "volume and price rise" in March, and the policy will change the fundamentals of the property market.
Third, the meeting emphasized the responsibility of local governments.
The meeting emphasized strengthening housing security, increasing the effective supply of housing construction land, and emphasizing the responsibility of local governments to implement policies. Judging from the recent policies issued by various localities, various specific policies are also being stepped up.
Fourth, the implementation of the spirit of the meeting will be gradually introduced, and the market will no longer be "bad"
In fact, before the the State Council executive meeting, various ministries and commissions have been in full swing to continue to control the slightly out-of-control property market. The market voice that has been repeatedly mentioned since last year will gradually fade away, and we may face a new topic, how to face the tremendous changes in the industry structure.
The announcement of the five rules of the relevant information country or the announcement of the five rules of the short-term negative exit country has become the focus of the market's attention to whether the glass futures price is negative or negative. We believe that the five regulatory policies and measures promulgated by the the State Council executive meeting have once again released a strong signal, and it is undoubtedly an important measure to reverse market expectations by persisting in regulatory policies and efforts. The national five rules belong to another boot, and the glass futures price rebounded after a short-term negative.
The introduction of the five detailed rules of China has a greater negative impact on second-hand housing. With the introduction of the detailed rules of various cities, the second-hand housing market transactions in various places have either been promoted first and then suppressed, falling into a trough. For new houses, after the transaction of second-hand houses is restricted, the demand will shift to the primary market. From the perspective of market rules, the more adjusted the industry, the more promising it is, but the more supported the industry should not be optimistic for a long time. With the introduction of local rules, the new housing market will take the lead in warming up before the second-hand housing market. With the implementation of the local rules, the advantage of less tax in the transfer link will be reflected in the new housing market, and some buyers will return to the new housing market again, driving the transaction volume of the new housing market to rise.
We believe that after the two sessions, local governments and ministries will introduce more targeted control measures, and investors need to pay close attention to the effect of the adjustment of control policies on the emotional stability of the property market, that is, the trend of the transaction volume and price of the property market and the specific supporting control rules issued by local governments and ministries. If the economic data in February shows that house prices have risen significantly, it is likely that more stringent control measures will be introduced during or after the two sessions.
Although China's five short-term negative effects are great, we can't ignore the fact that glass fundamentals do have a rising foundation. At the same time, we should also see that futures rose too much compared with the same period of last year, and overdraft demand drove prices. After the Spring Festival, the situation of oversupply has improved relatively. According to recent statistics, the actual utilization rate of the production line is 8 1.72%, which is already at a low level, and the industry as a whole is still at a low ebb. Supply exceeding demand has become the norm in the flat glass industry. Although the output of flat glass began to decline in February last year, the monthly output remained at a high level of nearly 60 million TEUs. Due to the particularity of continuous glass production, once glass production starts, it is almost impossible to stop production. Therefore, in the context of unrelenting supply pressure, we have to rely on consumption to drive prices.
Although the situation of absolute surplus has not fundamentally changed, according to statistics, we find that the situation of surplus has improved relatively. After the Spring Festival in February, the inventory of production enterprises was 28.85 million TEUs, which was basically the same as before the Spring Festival. This is the best level of inventory after the Spring Festival in recent years, and the inventory has increased significantly after the Spring Festival in the past. The production and sales rate has been continuously improving and is sustainable. In 20 12 years, the cumulative production and sales growth rate of flat glass has exceeded 20 1 1 in the same period, and the cumulative monthly sales growth rate of flat glass shows a slight upward trend. From the historical data, it has rebounded from the lowest 73.6% of 20 12+0, and has now reached 18. It is worth mentioning that after the fourth quarter and from June 2065438+2003 to February 2065438+2003, there was no previous correction in the production and sales rate. We believe that, in addition to the growth caused by low-priced shipments of some enterprises, large-scale shutdown and cold repair measures and destocking have affected this value, making sales performance stronger. This can also be seen from the data of downstream real estate, so the production and sales rate data is sustainable. We believe that although the prosperity of the float glass industry will still be hovering at the bottom in the short term, with the arrival of the peak season of construction in the second quarter, the downstream demand will continue to improve, and with the destocking of enterprises, there is not much room for glass prices to go down. The rise of futures prices is much greater than the rebound of spot prices. Since the listing of glass futures on February 3, 20 12, the main contract price of glass futures has increased by 17%, the spot price of glass has increased by 4.5% year-on-year, and prices in other regions have declined. Therefore, the current futures price increase is too large, which overdraws the relative recovery of demand and drives the price. If the spot price of glass can't catch up in the later period, even if the glass futures price falls sharply, it is normal. The gradual decline in export volume is not conducive to alleviating domestic surplus. 20 12 the global economic recovery is weak and the total demand is weakened, which leads to the slow recovery and growth of the world economy, especially the developed economies, and the weak import and export. The export situation of flat glass in China is not good. In 20 12, China's flat glass exports continued to show a downward trend, with a cumulative export of 654.38+62 million square meters, down 7.53% year-on-year.
The change of China's export policy and the anti-dumping measures of importing countries have also increased the pressure on glass exporting enterprises. In the future, the export of flat glass will mainly promote the export of high-end and deep-processed glass, while the export restrictions of ordinary flat glass will be more severe. Therefore, the change of export market and policy is not conducive to alleviating domestic surplus, but also has a certain inhibitory effect on the price trend of flat glass.
We believe that, under the situation that the rising expectation of the property market is getting worse and worse, the the State Council executive meeting issued five regulatory policies and measures, which once again released a strong signal, and it is an important measure to reverse the market expectation. The national five rules belong to another boot, and the glass futures price is expected to rebound after the short-term bad news is exhausted and the peak consumption season comes in March. Be cautiously optimistic about the later trend. After the two sessions, under the cumulative effect of the continuous introduction of substantive real estate control measures, even in the off-season of summer consumption, it can also usher in a real downward pattern.