I. Risk and Risk Management The so-called risk refers to the unpredictable influence of various uncertain factors on enterprises in the process of production and operation. Because there are many uncertain factors and many types of business risks, it is necessary to analyze them carefully, establish a mechanism to avoid and use risks, and actively face and overcome them. The so-called risk management refers to the establishment of a reasonable and feasible early warning mechanism under the premise of fully analyzing various objective factors, so as to deal with the influence of various uncertain factors on enterprises, reduce the influence of risks to the controllable range of enterprises and ensure the normal production and operation of enterprises. Risks can happen anytime and anywhere, and any enterprise must face them seriously. The global economic fluctuation in 2008 sounded the alarm for enterprises, which needs to be paid great attention to. Second, the risk types of grain and oil enterprises According to the analysis of the management flow chart and the tree diagram of risk influencing factors, the risks of grain and oil enterprises are mainly as follows: 1, international and domestic price risks. The price factor affects the whole body. Due to natural changes, changes in political environment, changes in social conditions at home and abroad, wars, disasters, changes in policies of various countries and other reasons, the price of grain and oil will inevitably fluctuate, which will have an impact on the raw material procurement, inventory level, logistics cost and sales cost of grain and oil enterprises. The market selling price of grain and oil commodities is subject to macro-control by the government. Therefore, the risk brought by price changes is very obvious, and it is regular and universal. 2. The influence of natural conditions. The production of grain and oil commodities is first influenced by natural factors. The change of global climate will cause great changes in the supply quantity and quality of grain and oil products. At the beginning of 2008, the severe snowstorm in China led to crop failure, rising prices and CPI index. This drastic change has also brought great risks to the production and operation of grain and oil enterprises. If enterprises blindly expand their inventory, with the slowdown of supply and demand, the prices of grain and oil products will fall, which may cause losses to processing trade enterprises. 3. Market conditions. Due to the particularity of grain and oil commodities, the market has great appeal to this commodity, coupled with changes in supply and demand, social stability, various emergencies of grain, oil and food safety, and even "social rumors" may cause snapping up, hoarding, property hoarding, disguised price increases, shoddy and other phenomena. , will eventually affect the social reputation and economic benefits of enterprises, and affect the reputation and popularity of enterprises. In addition, the market forecast error, the gap between the forecast volume and the actual demand is too large; The quality of the products produced does not meet the needs of the sellers; The product price is unreasonable; Inappropriate sales channels will affect product sales. 4. Financial risks. Finance is a true reflection of the operation of the whole enterprise. In the course of operation, enterprises may make ends meet, capital turnover is not smooth, debts are high, and debts cannot be repaid on time. Enterprises may also encounter backward financial management, violation of laws and regulations, poor financial management benefits, and may also make investment mistakes. If financial risks are not handled properly, it will lead to financial crisis. 5. Manage risks. Enterprises are for-profit organizations, and their goal is to create profits. In order to gain profits, enterprises must improve efficiency through system construction and management, and management can be roughly divided into two parts: internal management centered on production and marketing management centered on market. Enterprise management level is the key to the success or failure of an enterprise, which is in a dominant position and has the characteristics of strategy and overall situation. There are many management risks in an enterprise, which is fully illustrated by "details determine success or failure". For example, the establishment of business objectives, the choice of target market, the formulation of business strategy, product development, technological transformation, the handling of daily management links, the handling of emergencies, public relations and many other aspects may produce risks. 6. Policy factors. The purpose of formulating policies is to stabilize the overall situation, ensure market stability and prevent accidents. According to different situations, the policy will be adjusted accordingly. As an enterprise, it is its own responsibility and obligation to implement policies, which will involve the interests of the enterprise itself in the process of implementation, thus generating risks. Grain and oil enterprises can't avoid the risks brought by policy adjustment, but they can reduce or transfer the risks within the scope permitted by the policy, which requires the management to understand and actively respond. Three. Procedure of risk management Risk management must be carried out in accordance with scientific procedures, mainly including the following stages: 1, risk definition. As mentioned above, different types of risks, different sources and levels have different impacts on enterprises. Grain and oil enterprises must be able to take some risks. When risks occur or are about to occur, enterprises should make clear the degree of risks and arrange them in priority order. High risks should be dealt with immediately, and small risks or minor risks can be dealt with with with less energy, postponed or ignored. 2. Establishing a risk identification system to identify current and future risks is the basis for analyzing risks and formulating countermeasures. Grain and oil enterprises should: establish a risk reporting system, including both the internal operation of the enterprise and various external information that may affect the enterprise; Draw the flow chart of management process, find out the links that may have risks, and formulate corresponding emergency plans; Establish a risk prediction system, analyze the omen by qualitative and quantitative means, and control various variable factors as much as possible. 3. Risk analysis. On the basis of the second step, the risk analysis report includes: the degree of influence of risk on the enterprise; Future prospect analysis of risks; One-time risk analysis; Specific analysis of the impact on enterprise production, sales, finance, technology, personnel, public relations and other aspects. 4. Develop risk management strategies and implement the overall system. It is an essential strategic design for enterprises to make an enterprise anti-risk action plan. Grain and oil enterprises should correct their attitude towards risks, formulate corresponding strategies, strive to reduce or avoid risks, ensure that they can calmly deal with them and implement them correctly, so as to minimize their losses or maximize their profits. Four. Anti-risk measures of grain and oil enterprises 1. Scientifically synthesize various factors and predict the market trend. Grain and oil enterprises should synthesize various factors that may cause risks, analyze the importance of various factors, summarize the market reactions that may be caused by various factors, pay special attention to the future market demand, price and quality trends, and pay attention to the future trend of periodic supply, so as to be aware of them and be comfortable with them. 2. Improve the management level in an all-round way to prevent accidents. Grain and oil enterprises should strengthen product quality management, reasonably control costs and rationally stock; It is necessary to establish a price analysis system, comprehensively analyze raw material procurement, processing cost accounting and inventory cost, and comprehensively analyze all links in the supply chain to maximize the income on the premise of ensuring the stability of the product chain; We should put an end to production accidents, logistics loss, commodity pollution, high-quality raw material prices and waste; It is necessary to cultivate the quality concept of all employees and form an all-round, whole-process and full-participation management situation. 3. Establish a risk early warning system and try to deal with it calmly. The risk early warning system of grain and oil enterprises should include: quality early warning (moisture, impurities, green marketing, qualitative change incentives, etc. ); Financial early warning (cost control, fund status, etc.). ); Market early warning (supply and demand situation, natural impact, policy trend, product quality assurance, etc.). ); Price early warning (grain and oil futures trading, market price changes, international grain price changes, upstream and downstream product price analysis, etc.). 4. Pay attention to the public relations crisis and manage modern enterprises in a complex and changeable dynamic environment. There may be a crisis, which may be caused by unexpected events, or it may be because it is usually ignored, accumulated for a long time, and finally exposed. For any enterprise, the crisis not only has a poor image and reduced efficiency, but also may lead to the withdrawal of enterprises from the market, as evidenced by the "Sanlu" incident in 2008. Therefore, all enterprises cannot ignore it. As a grain and oil enterprise, the causes of the crisis mainly come from the internal and external aspects of the enterprise. There are products and services related to the enterprise, such as unqualified quality indicators, poor storage, substandard use of additives, and major defects in production technology. Externally, there are product pollution, aging, drastic changes in demand, customer complaints and so on. The occurrence of the above-mentioned crisis events has caused losses or threatened the development of enterprises. The root of the crisis lies in the lack of attention, low management level and poor adaptability of enterprises. Grain and oil enterprises should correctly face the crisis, adhere to the policy of putting prevention first, always put public interests first, strengthen information communication, let the public know the real situation, strive to gain public understanding and understanding, and strive to minimize adverse effects and losses. Looking at the development and changes of many well-known enterprises at home and abroad, the successful enterprises all have a set of strategies to deal with risks when facing risks, but there are also many enterprises that can't face risks correctly and take the wrong approach of being irresponsible to society and ignoring consumers, and are finally eliminated by society and the market.