The recent sharp drop in international oil prices may be the most concerned thing for countries and investors. Because, since June 20th this year, not only the international crude oil price has dropped by about 25% in four months, but also the international crude oil price has dropped below $80 on June 5th 10.
With the dramatic changes in the interests of countries around the world triggered by the collapse of crude oil prices, explanations and comments on the collapse of crude oil prices are surging. There is a "conspiracy theory" that the collapse of crude oil prices is a conspiracy of the United States and Saudi Arabia against Russia. Because, according to Russia's crude oil exploitation cost and economic situation, as long as the crude oil price falls below $80, it will cause a major blow to the Russian economy. This is also the biggest sanction against the Russian economy. Therefore, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened that the international crude oil price fell below $80, which was the biggest disaster for the world economy.
A monthly report recently released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out that it is very important to keep the international crude oil price at $80. Because, according to the IEA's estimate, the oil price is 80 dollars, and about 2.8% of the global production will be uneconomical (that is, the producers are unprofitable), involving 2.6 million barrels of crude oil per day. The affected countries and units include Canada, Russia, Britain, China (onshore) and even Nigeria (offshore). The deep-sea drilling plans of the United States, Brazil and Mexico are inevitably affected by the $80 oil price. The IEA also believes that the international oil price should be kept at 80 dollars.
What we want to ask now is, is $80 the bottom line of international crude oil price? So what determines this bottom line? In other words, how is the current international crude oil price determined, is it cost pricing or financial pricing? If the international crude oil price is above $80, who will benefit? Whose interests will be harmed; Who will benefit if the international crude oil price falls below $80? Whose interests will be harmed?
In fact, in recent decades, although the cost of international oil exploitation has been rising, the international oil price has never been priced by cost, but by finance, and its fluctuation range is quite huge. For example, when the American financial crisis broke out in 2008, the oil price plummeted from $0/45 per barrel to $36. In the following years, the oil price remained above 100 USD. When the oil price plummeted to $36, no oil company in any country went bankrupt, but when the current oil price remained above 100, some oil-producing countries became nouveau riche. The reason why the international oil price will remain at a high level for a long time has little to do with the cost of oil-producing enterprises and market supply and demand, but more is the result of monopoly pricing of international oil-exporting countries, plus oil futures, which makes the monopoly pricing of this oil like a duck to water. In this case, oil-exporting countries can benefit greatly, such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela and other countries, while the interests of oil-demanding countries such as China, the United States, Europe and Japan are greatly damaged, and it will cost more to buy the same amount of oil. This will not only harm consumers in these countries, but also seriously damage the economic growth of these countries and the world.
Oil-producing countries such as Russia and Venezuela, under high oil prices, not only make a lot of money, but also make their policy governance easy to expand. Therefore, when oil prices fall, especially plummet, they say it's over, and they release malicious words to the global market. Because this oil price market is determined by expectations, I hope to influence expectations. Some people have analyzed that if the oil price stays above $0/00 per barrel, Russia's policy and finance can rest easy. However, if the oil price is lower than 100 USD, it will be impossible for Russia to maintain the original expenditure scale under the premise of basic fiscal balance; Whether tightening or substantially increasing the fiscal deficit will deal a heavy blow to the Russian economy and people's livelihood. The same is true of Venezuela. So the oil price plummeted, and countries like this called it the worst. However, maintaining such a high oil price level will have to pay a higher price for oil-demanding countries.
Especially in China. Because, in recent years, with the rapid economic growth in China and the improvement of the living standards of China residents, China's demand for oil is increasing. After the United States, China has become one of the largest oil consumers in the world, and its dependence on foreign countries is above 58%. If China's per capita oil consumption is the highest, China's dependence on oil consumption will be higher. Therefore, China should be the biggest beneficiary of the collapse of international oil prices (because with the development and utilization of shale gas in the United States, the United States may also export oil, changing from a consumer country to an exporter). It may not only reduce the cost of enterprises in an all-round way, but also directly reduce the living cost of residents. These are quite beneficial to promoting China's economic growth. Therefore, on this issue, China must not be influenced by all kinds of groundless remarks, especially conspiracy theories.
It can be said that with the recent continuous strength of the US dollar, the comprehensive development and utilization of shale gas in the United States, and the weakening of US demand for global oil, even if geopolitical disputes continue, it is estimated that the decline in international oil prices will be a long-term trend. In the current international market, the buyer's demand is insufficient, the seller's competition is intensified, and the crude oil supply tends to be surplus. If the oil price in the international oil futures market is also bearish, it will be easier to push down the future trend of international oil prices. Whether the international oil price will be at the level of $80 depends on the fierce game of interests of all parties. In this regard, the domestic market should keep a clear head, and don't make a fuss with those countries that advocate high oil prices in the international market.