Economic data usually have a short-term impact on the foreign exchange market, and some important data may even become the heavyweights in the foreign exchange market that day, reversing the trend. However, even the most important data usually has a short-term impact on the market, which will play a role in braking or boosting exchange rate fluctuations without fundamentally changing the direction of the trend. But the summary of these data can usually reflect the quality of a country's economic fundamentals. When this quality shows signs of change, we should be careful, and the market often makes an unmistakable response to it.
Answer supplement
When interpreting economic data, what matters is not the absolute value of the data, but the relative change range of the data, which usually involves the expected value, the previous value and the actual value. The economic data system in western countries is not only perfect, but also there are a large number of professional organizations engaged in forecasting in both government and private sectors. Before the data is released, they will release the expected value of this data. When the expected value is better than the previous value, it will often attract speculators to buy a certain currency in the short term. When the expected value is worse than the previous value, short-term pessimism may also cover the market.
When the actual value is announced, the market is often at a sensitive moment. At this time, transactions will be very frequent and the exchange rate may fluctuate very violently. If the actual value is better than the previous value and the expected value, it usually represents positive, and vice versa. If it is not much different from the previous value and expected value, it will often only cause general oscillation. The greater the gap between the actual value and the previous value and the expected value, the greater the positive or negative energy, and the more intense the market fluctuation will be. For example, the non-farm employment data in the United States is expected to increase by 250,000, and the actual published value is only 654.38+0.3 million. The euro or pound can soar by more than 654.38+000-200 points in 654.38+0 minutes, and the increase can reach more than 300 points in one night.
What is the date of non-agricultural data every month? Usually, the non-farm employment data in the United States will be released on Friday evening in the first week of each month, but there are some special circumstances. For example, (2065438+non-agricultural data in September 2003) the United States suffered the first shutdown in recent 17 years. Therefore, many economic data, including non-farm employment data in September, were not released on time, and were postponed to 65438+2003 10.
How to treat non-agricultural data every Friday? Anyone who has worked in the precious metals market knows that the impact of non-agriculture on the price trend of precious metals, especially spot silver, is enormous, and the price often fluctuates greatly before and after the data is released. In order to make investors better profit from non-agriculture, we will deeply analyze the impact of non-agricultural data on precious metals.
First of all, we must understand what is non-agricultural. As the name implies, non-agriculture refers to the value of non-agricultural employment population, and the largest economic power in the world usually refers to the non-agricultural value of the United States. As a non-agricultural employment population, non-agricultural employment includes employment population other than manufacturing industry and service industry, which also reflects the current economic development level of the country, because manufacturing industry and service industry are the secondary industry and the tertiary industry respectively, and their employment population directly reflects the consumption level of the country. If its value becomes smaller, it means that the productivity of enterprises in this country has decreased, the economy has entered a depression, the consumption level of the people has decreased, and the market has fallen into a highly sensitive period. On the contrary, the increase in value shows that the social economy is good, the productivity of enterprises is improved, the people's consumption power is enhanced, and the market is highly active.
But what effect does it have on precious metals?
American non-agricultural data and its unemployment rate data are released together, and the two data complement each other, which can often achieve twice the result with half the effort. The above three aspects show that American non-agricultural data are closely related to the country's consumer market and economic development. Therefore, the increase in non-agricultural data shows that the US economy is improving, which is good for the US dollar and bad for gold and silver; On the other hand, if its value is reduced, it shows that the US economy is in a downturn, which is naturally bad for the US dollar and good for gold and silver.
However, it is often seen that non-agricultural data has three values: the previous value, the predicted value and the actual published value. The previous value is the known actual value published last month and is a basis for this data. On this basis, the forecast value is the market's forecast of the economic development of the United States according to the economic data of the past month, and it is also a numerical forecast of the subsequent non-agricultural data. The forecast value represents the market expectation. Therefore, in order to judge the market reaction through the actual published value, it is necessary to compare the difference between the actual published value and the predicted value to further judge the price trend of gold and silver. Simply put, when the actual published value is greater than the predicted value, gold and silver are bad; When the actual published value is less than the predicted value, gold and silver are bullish.
Before the data was released, the market began to warm up expectations. After the data was released, the actual data was much larger than the predicted value, and the price of gold and silver began to accelerate. But then it began to return to the normal trend. Therefore, we should also know that this kind of economic data has a certain time limit on the trend of gold and silver, especially spot silver. Therefore, investors should be prepared before their own data is released, so as to make a leisurely profit.
On what day in January were the non-agricultural small data and non-agricultural big data released in the United States? What do non-agricultural small data and non-agricultural big data mean respectively? "Small non-agricultural", referred to as ADP, is an American automatic data processing company, and the number of employed people released is more authoritative. ADP's National Employment Report is sponsored by ADP, and the data comes from a survey of 500,000 private units, so the data is quite accurate and can predict the non-agricultural data at the beginning of each month. Small non-agricultural projects are published once a month, usually two days before non-agricultural data (that is, Wednesday). Specifically, daylight saving time is generally announced at 20: 15 on the first Wednesday of each month (2 1: 15 in winter time), which has a certain forecasting effect on non-agricultural data and is called "small non-agricultural".
Non-agricultural data refers to non-agricultural employment, employment rate and unemployment rate. As the name implies, it is a data indicator reflecting the employment situation of non-agricultural population in the United States. These three data are released at 2 1:30 Beijing time (winter time:165438+1October-March) and 20:30 Beijing time (summer time: April-65438+1October) respectively.
Why are American non-farm data released on the first Friday of each month? Because it is the data of last month, it takes time to count something, but it can't be released too late, so it is released on Friday of the first week.
How to analyze non-agricultural data After the emergence of non-agricultural data, the rise and fall of the market depends on the data. If the data is higher than expected, the pre-position and unilateral drop sharply. If the data is lower than expected and the previous value, it will rise sharply unilaterally. If the actual value is between the two, then the market will fluctuate back and forth. The above is the general situation, and the specific situation still depends on the specific data to analyze. I hope my answer is helpful to you. I hope it can be adopted. Thank you.
What if the monthly non-agricultural data meets 1 on Friday? Generally 1 falls on Friday, which will be delayed.
The specific release time of non-agricultural data in the United States is generally announced on the first Friday night of each month, 20: 30 Beijing time in summer time and 2 1: 30 Beijing time in winter time! The specific announcement time depends on different situations!
I hope it helps you!
Zhou Ji Primary School entered junior high school on Friday 100 in the first week of junior high school, which was a turning point and a new starting point of my life. Just entering the middle school gate, I am very strange to everything on campus. I am full of curiosity about everything on campus. I can't help looking around. I am happy, but I am lonely inside. There are so many new classmates and teachers that we don't know each other. I'm worried and scared, but I'm satisfied with the facts. Students help each other, unite and be friendly, and teachers are amiable and persuasive.
Foreign exchange data focuses on the changes in employment in the United States tonight. Analysis of Friday's US non-agricultural foreign exchange data and employment, as well as non-agricultural concerns about Huitong. Foreign exchange market trends and expert analysis can be asked online. Foreign exchange quotation, foreign exchange analysis, foreign exchange trend chart.