Current location - Trademark Inquiry Complete Network - Futures platform - Shortcomings of conch
Shortcomings of conch
First of all, the market demand for cement is insufficient. The change of cement demand is mainly related to infrastructure and real estate investment. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, the growth rate of infrastructure investment in China will be 0.9% (3.3% in 2019), and the growth rate of real estate investment will be 7% (9.9% in 2019), and the infrastructure investment and real estate investment in China will continue to fall.

Relevant data show that from 20021to1-May, the two-year compound growth rate of fixed assets investment reached 4.2%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous value. Judging from the two-year compound growth rate in May, real estate investment dropped from 10.3% to 9.0%. Investment in infrastructure dropped from 3.8% to 3.4%.

On the whole, the growth rate of infrastructure investment and real estate investment in China is facing certain growth pressure. Infrastructure is mainly affected by tight market credit and slow construction progress. In terms of real estate, under the pressure of the policy of no real estate speculation, the financing end of housing enterprises is restricted by "three red lines", and the subsequent investment in the real estate industry will further decline.

The cumulative cement output in China was 922 million tons, up 65,438+09.2% year-on-year, up 65,438+00.7% compared with the same period in 2065,438+09. Among them, the national cumulative cement output in May was 243 million tons, down 3.2% year-on-year and up 7.3% over the same period of 20 19. Based on the logic that infrastructure investment and real estate investment will gradually decline in the future, it is expected that the demand for cement will be suppressed in the future.

Second, the pressure of rising costs. At the end of last year, the price of thermal coal began to rise. On May 12 this year, the futures price of thermal coal in major cities reached 943.8 yuan, reaching a record high.

Coal accounts for 30% of cement production cost. Due to the cost increase in 1 quarter this year, the gross profit margin of Conch decreased by 8.08 percentage points year-on-year to 26.85%. At present, coal prices continue to run at a high level, and the company's cost side will continue to be under pressure.