1. Can ferrosilicon futures fall?
Shao Wan _, a senior researcher in nonferrous metals at Guotai Junan (17.980, -0.03, -0. 17%), told this newspaper that there are two main reasons for the downward price. First, the policy of dual control of energy consumption has been marginalized and loosened in stages. Previously, the policy of stopping production and limiting production with dual control of energy consumption was mostly aimed at the relative vacuum period of the current policy in September and June. In May 438+10, the main ferroalloy producing areas showed signs of resuming production, which impacted the market's confidence in price expectations based on tight supply.
Second, Da Rui Futures (28.090, -0. 1 1, -0.39%) also thinks that,
"Affected by the double adjustment of expectations and emotions, ferroalloy prices have a certain callback pressure in the short term. However, under the market background of dual control of energy consumption and coal shortage, although the main producing areas have resumed production, the operating rate is still low, and the general increase in electricity prices has led to an increase in production costs. In the medium term, supply constraints are still expected to support, and there is limited room for sharp downside in the short term. Caution is recommended. " Shao Wan _ said. In terms of chemical futures, Shen Yin Wanguo Futures pointed out that the regulation of domestic energy supply has been strengthened, and the coal chemical sector has declined. In terms of industry, PTA has been overhauled in the early stage, but 9.4 million tons of devices such as Honggang and Yisheng are being restarted or planned to be restarted.
To sum up, the middle of the month is approaching, and under the circumstance that the terminal prosperity is not relatively predictable, various macro data are released, and funds are withdrawn in advance to avoid risks, which suppresses the prices of some black varieties including ferroalloys. In the short term, the market fell into a policy cooling-off period, and the high panic intensified, and both silicon and silicon ushered in a down limit. On the whole, ferrosilicon has stepped out of the recent considerable increase, and there is a need for a callback at a high level.