So in recent days, I have kept 120% attention on both investment and my beloved automobile industry. Now I am a bystander and strategic investor in the automobile manufacturing industry, and I have a little media personality to see how the COVID-19 epidemic will affect the automobile manufacturing industry.
I can tell you the conclusion first, because I will share the research results of my investment strategy team with you later.
The conclusion is that the automobile industry is suffering an unprecedented blow, and the impact of this epidemic will drag the pace of the automobile industry (whether at the manufacturing end or the aftermarket end) to around September this year. It is optimistic that September will be better and cars will sell better, but it cannot be said that they will fully recover. Because the epidemic has not only hit the domestic production chain again, COVID-19 has become popular all over the world, and it can even be said that we are about to go to EOP state, while foreign countries are about to go to SOP state.
All commodity raw materials related to the automobile market: hot coil, cold coil, rubber, plastic, glass, etc. Will be suppressed by unprecedented prices.
All auto-related stocks, whether on or off the market, are not recommended to be bullish, and the bearish logic should be maintained until September this year.
In fact, many people retort that the auto industry will have a retaliatory rebound soon. I said there would be, but not right away. The rebound of automobile consumption may come as early as September, which is still a cautiously optimistic forecast.
You know, from a macroeconomic point of view, this market is more than just your car. The total productivity and consumption power of the people cannot be compensated in these two lost months. In the lost two months, the industrial chain experienced a great escape, and there were gaps everywhere. Some companies with broken capital chains went bankrupt directly, and they didn't even have time to retaliate. Macroeconomics is like a train, and the continuity of time nodes leads you to sit on it. Just like the recent wave of large-scale water release by the central bank, it finally saved the stock market with a low opening of 8%. then what I won't say much about the rest, because retail investors (leeks) have told me that China's economy has recovered and the bull market has arrived, hehe.
Well, let's talk about the opportunity, the purpose is to let friends who understand, in the next time, grasp the real core point of the automobile industry during this economic recovery period and make good investment reference.
Next, I will post some new energy research reports of our macro strategy team (of course, not all of them can be posted). Writing may not be my writing, but the research results of my employees:
Prospect and Opportunity of Nickel as Raw Material of New Energy Battery
1. China plays an important role in the future of electric vehicles in the world. Under the lead of Tesla's localization, almost all of these European and American electric vehicle companies have to produce cars through China. China has a complete industrial chain of new energy vehicles, which is not found in any country in the world.
As stated in the oil price report of 20 18, "China indirectly controls the electric vehicle market by almost monopolizing the production of electric vehicle batteries". Two years ago, Oilprice magazine wrote: "European automobile production may soon be transferred to China, and the European market should start to feel uneasy about it." "This will have a major impact on the region. For a long time, companies such as Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Renault have been the economic pillars of the region. "
At that time, two-thirds of the world's lithium-ion battery supply originated from China. Lithium-ion battery is the most commonly used battery for standard electric vehicles. "In addition, these batteries are extremely valuable, accounting for 40% of the car's value, which is really shocking. At present, Europe can't compete with China in the production of lithium-ion batteries. In fact, at present, the entire African continent is estimated to have only 1% market share. " "For European car companies, it is easy to transfer electric vehicle production to China."
That is to say, in this week's report, in order to make Elon? Not surprisingly, Musk needs China's participation to fulfill his promise to provide affordable and realizable mass market and ordinary consumers for electric vehicles. The problem comes down to the battery again. However, the problem this time is not lithium, but cobalt.
According to Reuters, "Electric vehicle manufacturers usually use Nickel Cobalt Aluminum Battery (NCA) or Nickel Manganese Cobalt Battery (NMC) on passenger cars because of their higher energy density, which is very important for determining how far electric vehicles can travel on a single charge." However, cobalt is one of the main reasons why electric vehicle batteries are so expensive, accounting for 40% of the car value.
Tesla has moved most of its production to China, where they are getting rid of their dependence on cobalt. Reuters reported this week that "Tesla's negotiations on using cobalt-free CATL batteries in cars produced in its China factory have entered an advanced stage. Cobalt is one of the most expensive metals in electric vehicle batteries. " Instead, the factory will use lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which will be "two digits cheaper than the existing batteries".
Tesla share price
The future opportunity is not expensive cobalt, but nickel, which is indispensable for all raw materials of automobile batteries. Even in the future, most battery manufacturers will increase the amount of nickel and decrease the amount of cobalt when manufacturing batteries.
Second, nickel, like platinum and palladium, can absorb a lot of hydrogen when passivated. The smaller the particle size, the greater the absorption! The important salts of nickel are nickel sulfate and nickel chloride. Similar to iron and cobalt, it is stable to water and air at room temperature and can resist alkaline corrosion, so nickel crucible can be used to melt alkaline substances in the laboratory. Nickel can be dissolved in dilute acid. Unlike iron, cobalt and nickel react strongly with concentrated nitric acid, but slowly with dilute nitric acid.
Well-known domestic enterprises: Zhongjin Lingnan, Taigang Stainless, China Nickel Resources, Guiyan Platinum, Meg, Yuan Keli, Jinchuan Group, Xinjiang Nonferrous Metals Industry (Group) Fukang Smelter, Xinjiang Xinxin, Li Jiang Science and Technology, Hanwang Group, etc.
Well-known foreign companies: MMCNorilskNickel of Russia, ValeSA of Brazil, XstrataPlc of Britain, AngloAmericanPlc, BHPBillitonLtd of Australia, MinaraResourcesLtd, Sumitomo Metal Mining Company, ErametSA, SherrittInternationalCorp
Third, nickel has good plasticity, corrosion resistance and magnetism! Therefore, it is mainly used in steel, nickel-based alloys, electroplating and batteries, and is widely used in various military manufacturing industries such as airplanes and radars, as well as civil machinery manufacturing and electroplating industries.
Specific uses include:
1, because nickel has good corrosion resistance, high temperature resistance, rust resistance and other properties! Therefore, it is widely used in steel fields such as stainless steel and alloy steel. In the application of stainless steel, the consumption of nickel is the largest. Nickel-containing stainless steel can not only resist the corrosion of atmosphere, steam and water, but also resist the corrosion of acid, alkali and salt.
2. The addition of nickel can improve the strength of alloy steel and keep its good plasticity and toughness. Nickel alloy steel is mainly used to manufacture acid-resistant towers, medical instruments and daily necessities in chemical production, and also used in machinery manufacturing, transportation and military industry, such as rebuilding bridges and building warships.
3. When electroplating, a durable and corrosion-resistant surface layer is covered on the substrate of metal materials such as steel, and its corrosion resistance is higher than that of galvanized layer. The processing ability of electroplating nickel is second only to electroplating zinc, and its consumption accounts for about 10% of the total nickel production.
4. Used as a chemical power supply and as a raw material for manufacturing Ni-MH batteries and Ni-Cd batteries. The world's Ni-MH batteries are mainly produced by China and Japanese enterprises, accounting for more than 95% of the global output, of which more than 70% are produced in China. Ni-MH battery enterprises in China mainly include Motorized Altman, Peng Hao, BYD, Yuhuan, Yuan Keli, Likexing, San Pu, Sheng Di, Sanjie, Quanneng and Gree. Japanese companies Panasonic, Tang Qian and Sanyo have moved the production of small-sized Ni-MH batteries to China. Large Ni-MH batteries for HEV are mainly produced in Japan, and the manufacturers are Primearth Electric Vehicle Energy Company (PEVE) and Sanyo Electric. Due to the merger of Panasonic and Sanyo, Panasonic's Hunan factory was sold to Yuan Keli, China. Therefore, large-scale Ni-MH batteries are mainly produced by Panasonic.
5. Nickel complex can be used as catalyst for hydrogenation and methane synthesis in petrochemical industry, and its advantage is that it is not easy to be poisoned by H2S and SO2. Nickel compounds can be used to make pigments and dyes. Nickel can also be made into new ceramics such as nickel ferrite and nickel-zinc-iron, which can be used as the magnetic core of transformer and the antenna of radio. Ultrafine nickel powder is often used as catalyst in chemical industry. Nickel is magnetic and can be attracted by magnets. Alloys made of aluminum, cobalt and nickel can be used to manufacture electromagnetic cranes.
Nickel is the basic component of batteries, including those installed in mobile phones, laptops and hybrid cars. Based on the optimistic prospect of the long-term battery market, many large mining enterprises have joined the ranks of resource competition.
BHP Billiton continues to retain its nickel in Western Australia. West Nickel Project, Want Nickel? West shows a potentially high return. Glencore also mines nickel ore to produce metal by-products. As a large nickel mine country, Indonesia has become the focus of many mining enterprises. Last year, Indonesia's nickel production ranked first in the world. Pacific Ocean? Rim？ Cobalt The company is currently carrying out exploration projects in Indonesia and actively developing nickel resources in Indonesia. Indonesia and China are not far apart. At present, with China occupying a dominant position in the electric vehicle market, neighboring countries are eager to provide the necessary raw materials for the electric vehicle industry in China. Indonesia naturally does not want to miss this opportunity. In fact, Indonesia's goal is not just to become a resource base. Indonesian Minister of Industry Airlangga? Khattar proposed to turn Indonesia into a regional manufacturing power and turn raw materials into consumer goods. This move may provide opportunities for mining companies that have begun to explore the Indonesian market.
Since 20 19, nickel mine has been hyped by domestic and foreign funds, and then entered a reasonable value range, but I think the price is not very high, and there is not much room for further development.
According to some materials in my own team's macro research report on commodities and industries, I can give a view of buying nickel (Shanghai nickel contract, London LME nickel contract) for medium and long-term investment. In the recovery period of the next few months, new energy vehicles will break out in the second spring and occupy a major position in the subsequent automobile development.
London LME nickel index
Finally, a few words to friends from all walks of life who have been plagued by the epidemic recently:
Maybe your own economy is seriously threatened, maybe you have nothing in this epidemic, but please find a direction suitable for your rebound in despair. Nietzsche has a famous saying: "What can't kill me will only make me stronger." Just as our human bones will become stronger under load and pressure, this is a kind of "anti-fragility"! How to survive in this black swan and find traces of spring in the cold winter can refer to the above suggestions and viewpoints.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.