Abstract: Securities investment is a conscious economic behavior regulated by people's psychological consciousness, and it is a kind of venture capital. In the securities investment market, the return of funds comes from investors' judgment and choice of investment opportunity. As we all know, investment is risky. The longer the capital is put into the market, the more uncertain factors there are in the investment market, and the higher the risk. Therefore, as a portfolio investor, you must have enough investment knowledge, risk awareness and good psychological quality. Good psychological quality is the most fundamental quality for investors to succeed.
Keywords: securities investment, risk awareness, risk sources
Securities investment is a kind of venture capital. Generally speaking, risk refers to the deviation from investors' expected returns or the uncertainty of securities returns. All risks related to securities investment are called total risks. Total risk can be divided into two categories: system risk and non-system risk.
1. System risk: refers to the possible changes in investment returns caused by some common factors of the whole, which affect the returns of all securities in the same way. Systemic risks include policy risk, brokerage periodic fluctuation risk, interest rate risk and purchasing power risk.
2. Non-systematic gap: refers to the risk that only affects the securities of a certain industry or individual company. It is usually caused by a special factor, which has no systematic and comprehensive relationship with the price of the whole securities market, and only affects the income of individual or a few securities. Nonsystematic risk can be offset or avoided, so it is also called distributable risk or avoidable risk. Non-systematic risks include credit risk, operational risk and financial risk.
Specific analysis:
(1) Systemic risk refers to the possible change of investment income caused by some global common factor, which affects the income of all securities in the same way. In real life, all enterprises are affected by overall factors, including social, political, economic and other aspects. Because these factors come from outside the enterprise, they are irresistible and inevitable for a single security, so they are also called inevitable risks. These common factors have different degrees of influence on all enterprises, and cannot be dispersed by diversifying investment, so they are also called undivided risks.
Systematic risks include policy risk, economic cyclical fluctuation risk, interest rate risk and purchasing power risk.
1. Policy risk refers to the risk brought to investors by the government's major changes in its policies on the securities market or the introduction of important measures and regulations, which cause fluctuations in the securities market. The government usually has certain plans and policies for the development of its own securities market in order to guide the development of the market and strengthen the management of the market. The securities market policy should be formulated on the basis of respecting the development level, political situation and current situation of the securities market. The government's planning and policies for the development of the securities market should be long-term and stable. On the premise of established plans and policies, the government should use legal means, economic means and necessary administrative flashlights to guide the healthy and orderly development of the securities market. However, under some special circumstances, the government may also change the strategic deployment of developing the securities market and introduce some initial stages to support or inhibit the development of the securities market. Insufficient understanding of the development law of the securities market, imperfect legal system and inadequate management means make it easy to intervene in the market by using the policy flashlight. Once there is policy risk, almost all securities will be affected, so it belongs to system risk.
2. The risk of economic cyclical fluctuations is the risk caused by the cyclical changes in the securities market. This market change does not refer to the daily and medium-term fluctuations of securities prices, but refers to the changes in the long-term trend of the securities market. Periodic fluctuation is a common phenomenon in the process of economic development, which is manifested in the continuous circular movement of the economy from expansion to contraction. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly and made great achievements. However, it is undeniable that the annual fluctuation of China's economic growth is still frequent and intense, which leads to a question: Is the annual frequent fluctuation of China's economy random or periodic? What is the form of its periodic fluctuation? This paper will focus on these two issues, make an empirical analysis of the economic cycle fluctuation in China since the reform and opening up, and try to find out the laws, so as to provide reference for the national macro-control and maintain sustained and stable economic growth.
3. Interest rate risk management is an important part of asset-liability management of western commercial banks, and it is the main tool to increase the bank's operating income and stabilize the bank's market value. Interest rate risk management is an important part of commercial bank risk management. On the basis of interest rate forecasting and interest rate risk measurement, there are two main types of interest rate risk management:
One is the traditional on-balance-sheet management, which controls interest rate risk by increasing (or decreasing) the position of assets or liabilities, or changing the internal structure of assets or liabilities (such as building an immune asset portfolio);
The other is off-balance sheet management, which is mainly used to temporarily hedge the existing asset-liability positions, and to "hedge" an asset or liability business with high individual risk or difficult to be included in the interest rate risk measurement system of commercial banks through on-balance sheet operation arrangements such as financial derivatives.
4. Purchasing power risk, also known as inflation risk, is the risk that inflation and currency depreciation will bring investors a decline in real income level. In the case of inflation, prices generally rise, securities prices will also rise, and investors' monetary income will also increase. However, due to the devaluation of the currency and the decline in the purchasing power of the currency, the actual income of investors has not increased, but has decreased. Generally, purchasing power risk can be analyzed by calculating the actual rate of return. Real rate of return = nominal rate of return-inflation rate.
(2) Non-systematic risk is also called non-market risk or dispersible risk. It is a risk that has nothing to do with the fluctuation of the whole stock market or the whole futures market or foreign exchange market and other related financial speculation markets. It refers to the possibility that the price of a single stock or a single futures, foreign exchange varieties and other financial derivatives will fall due to changes in some factors, thus bringing losses to securities holders.
1. is caused by special factors, such as management problems of enterprises and employment problems of listed companies.
2. Only affect the earnings of some stocks. It is the part of risk that is unique to a certain enterprise or industry. If the real estate industry votes, there will be a downturn in the real estate industry.
It can be eliminated by diversifying investment. Because unsystematic risk is individual risk, which is brought by controllable factors such as individuals, enterprises or industries, investors can resolve unsystematic risk by diversifying their investments.
Financial risk is related to the way the company raises funds. We usually measure the financial risk of a company's stock by observing its capital structure. Companies with a small proportion of loans and bonds in the capital structure have lower financial risks in their stocks; The financial risk of stocks of companies with large loans and bonds is high. A joint-stock company can pay dividends to shareholders only after paying all the debt interest and the due principal. If all the capital of a company is raised by issuing shares, it has no interest expense. For any company that uses debt to raise some funds, the change of its operating income will cause greater changes in the net income of shareholders because of the need to pay interest.
Business risk refers to the uncertainty of stock investors' income due to the change of company's income due to the external business environment and conditions and internal management problems. The degree of business risk varies from company to company and depends on the company's business activities. The income of some industries is easy to change and it is difficult to predict accurately. Because the company's income and cash flow are closely related to its income, variable income will lead to the uncertainty of income and cash flow.
Liquidity risk refers to the uncertainty of investors' income due to the potential difficulty of converting assets into cash. The more difficult it is to sell a stock without drastically reducing the price, the greater the liquidity risk of holding this stock. Among the various stocks traded in the circulation market, the liquidity risk varies greatly, and some stocks are easy to sell, so the market can absorb a large number of such stock transactions at the same price level as the previous transaction.
When you have a macro and micro understanding of the risks in securities investment, you can find vitality in dedication and ensure your capital investment and struggle. Securities investment is like a double-edged sword, defining risks, facing risks, analyzing risks, looking for opportunities in risks, and then gaining profits in the securities market. Therefore, before we set foot in the securities market, we'd better know the source of securities market risks.