(1) Futures speculative trading operation

The so-called futures speculation refers to the behavior that futures speculators use their own funds to invest in buying and selling futures contracts by predicting the future price changes, so as to hedge their positions and gain profits when the price changes in their favor.

The principle of speculative trading in the futures market is similar to general trade activities, that is, buying at a low price, selling at a high price, and making profits through the difference. The difference is that futures speculation is purely a short-selling behavior, that is, it is actually the sale of the futures contract itself, and it is not necessary to actually own the goods. Speculators take favorable trading positions at any time according to their own price judgment. When the price is predicted to rise, they buy (long) futures contracts, and sell their futures contracts (long) in time during the rising process to obtain the spread profit; When judging that the price will fall, sell (short) futures contracts, and buy back the futures contracts (short positions or short covering) sold before when the price falls, and profit from the difference between selling at a high price and buying at a low price. Of course, this kind of speculation is not an easy behavior, which requires considerable trading experience and price analysis skills.

The activity of speculative trading is due to the realization of margin system in futures trading, that is, traders can use a small amount of funds to trade several times as much as funds, thus seeking opportunities to obtain high profits. Under normal circumstances, traders only need to pay a margin of about 5%- 18% of the total commodities in the futures market, and they can conduct a transaction with a value of about 20 times of the margin. This "leverage principle" effect of futures speculation is very attractive to participants. At the same time, frequent price fluctuations in the futures market provide more profit opportunities, which is a strong temptation for speculators. In fact, the real physical delivery on the delivery date in the futures market only accounts for 2% of the transaction.

(2) the economic function of futures speculation

Futures speculation plays a series of important roles in the futures market, and its main economic functions are as follows:

(1) bear the risk of commodity price fluctuation. Speculators are the main body to bear the price risk in the futures market. Without a lot of speculation, hedging is impossible.

② Improved the liquidity of the futures market. Market liquidity means that traders can freely enter and leave the market according to their own wishes. A large number of frequent speculative transactions provide hedgers with the conditions to easily hedge contracts, thus ensuring the smooth implementation of hedging status.

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③ Find and form a reasonable price level. Because speculators widely collect market information, carefully study and predict the supply and demand situation of commodity markets and other price changes, they can find a reasonable price level in the future, buy futures when prices are low, increase demand and seek price increases; Selling futures at a higher price level reduces demand, thus stabilizing prices and forming a stable price level.

④ Promote regional market integration. Speculation makes all kinds of economic information flow and spread quickly in a wider range. When commodity prices are abnormal in different regions or even around the world, speculators can buy from one place and sell from another, gradually leveling the price gap, thus forming a broader and more stable market price system.

Of course, in addition to the above positive effects, speculation also has negative effects: ① Speculators can manipulate prices by buying and selling a large number of futures contracts, artificially causing an imbalance between supply and demand in the futures market, thus making huge profits. (2) Excessive speculation in the futures market will also encourage market price fluctuations; Thereby destroying the price system of the spot market. ③ Excessive speculation will lead to improper insider trading, fraud and other bad behaviors, and damage the normal function of the futures market.

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