In the first three quarters of 2008, China's foreign trade accelerated its structural adjustment and achieved sustained and rapid growth under the influence of unfavorable factors such as the slowdown of world economic growth, the rising prices of international energy resources and domestic production costs, and the tight liquidity of small and medium-sized enterprises. The main features are:
1. Export growth slowed down, import growth accelerated, and foreign trade surplus decreased. In the first three quarters, the total import and export value of commodities was196765438+300 million USD, up by 25.2% year-on-year. Among them, 1 quarter exports increased by 30.3%, and the growth rate slowed down in the second and third quarters. In the first three quarters, the total export volume was107.406 billion US dollars, an increase of 22.3%, and the growth rate dropped by 4.8 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. Since the beginning of the year, the import growth has accelerated, with a cumulative import of 893.07 billion US dollars, an increase of 29.0%, and the growth rate is 9.9 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. The foreign trade surplus was US$ 6,543.8+US$ 080.99 billion, down 2.6% year-on-year.
2. The export of mechanical and electrical products grew rapidly, and the import price of energy rose. In the first three quarters, China's largest export commodity, mechanical and electrical products, exported 61700 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 24.0%. Affected by rising operating costs and weak demand, the export of clothing and clothing accessories in traditional commodities only increased by 65,438 0.8%, and the growth rate dropped by 265,438 0.2 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. The export growth of other commodities slowed down. Among the imported commodities, the fastest growth is still energy and resource commodities. Crude oil imports increased by 8.8% year-on-year and the amount increased by 85.5%; Iron ore imports increased by 22.0%, and the amount increased by116.0%; Soybean imports increased by 32.3%, and the amount increased by 137.4%.
3. General trade maintained strong growth, and the growth rate of processing trade continued to decline. In the first three quarters, China's general trade continued to grow strongly, with the total import and export value reaching US$ 956.57 billion, an increase of 35.9%. Among them, the export was 500.78 billion US dollars, an increase of 26.9%; Imports reached US$ 455.79 billion, up 47.3%, 22.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The growth of processing trade slowed down further, with the total import and export value of US$ 803.40 billion, up 13.8% year-on-year. Among them, export growth15.6%; Into 10.7% growth.
4. The growth rate of exports to the United States slowed down sharply, and exports to emerging markets increased rapidly. In the first three quarters, China's export growth to developed markets slowed down. Exports to the European Union reached US$ 220.47 billion, up by 25.6%, exports to the United States18965438+300 million, up by1.2%, and exports to Japan reached US$ 85.85 billion, up by 16.0%. Bilateral trade with some emerging economies continues to grow rapidly. For example, exports to India increased by 43. 1%, exports to South Korea increased by 28.4%, and exports to Brazil increased by 90.2%.
Second, the annual export growth rate may be lower than 20%.
The current financial crisis is spreading to the real economy. As personal consumption expenditure and export growth were lower than expected, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the second quarter has been revised from the previous 3.3% to 2.8%. Some research institutions predict that American personal consumption will experience negative growth in the third and fourth quarters, and accordingly, the American economy will enter at least moderate negative growth. The euro zone and Japan have fallen into negative growth in the second quarter. Growth in developing countries and emerging economies has also begun to slow down. Imports of major developed countries may shrink in the fourth quarter, and global commodity trade will also slow down significantly. Affected by the financial crisis, some regions and enterprises have difficulties in payment. China's import and export enterprises have clearly felt the reduction of new export orders and the increase of payment risks.
In July, the futures prices of major primary products in the international market began to fall. The recent turmoil in the financial market and concerns about the future global economic downturn have further squeezed the inflation component of futures prices. However, commodity prices denominated in US dollars are still at historical highs, and the possibility of large fluctuations caused by speculative factors cannot be ruled out. China's domestic inflation rate is still not low, and the export industry will continue to be plagued by rising costs.
Since the reform of the exchange rate mechanism, the RMB has appreciated by more than 20% against the US dollar, and by more than 8% against the euro and the Japanese yen. Recently, the RMB exchange rate has been basically stable, which is related to the measures taken by major developed economies such as the United States, Europe and Japan to stabilize financial markets and curb large exchange rate fluctuations. This temporarily eased the difficulties brought by the rapid appreciation of the renminbi to export enterprises.
Based on the above factors, it is expected that the export growth rate of China will further slow down in the fourth quarter, and the annual export growth rate may fall below 20%.
Third, the foreign trade situation in 2009 is not optimistic.
First, the world economy will fall into a downturn, and the possibility of deepening the crisis cannot be ruled out.
Although governments are taking coordinated actions to build breakwaters so that the financial tsunami will not cause the Great Depression like 1929, it is expected that it will take a long time to restore market confidence and solve institutional and structural problems. According to optimistic estimates, the economies of developed countries will not start to recover until at least the second half of 2009 or even later. The extent to which developing countries and emerging economies are affected by the financial crisis remains uncertain. The whole world economy will enter a long-term depression. At present, the real estate market in the United States has not shown signs of full recovery, and the subprime mortgage problem may still worsen, making more non-performing loans of financial institutions surface. Therefore, the possibility of deepening the financial crisis is not ruled out.
Second, the price of primary products will continue to be at a high level and fluctuate violently.
If the price of primary products can fall back to a lower level, it will obviously be good news for reducing the cost burden of importing countries and stimulating economic recovery. However, the huge demand of emerging markets and the bioenergy policy of the United States, which are the main factors leading to the soaring prices of energy and resource commodities in recent years, have not changed. However, the supply of energy and resource commodities is restricted by the increasing difficulty of mining, the insufficient investment of producing countries and the decrease of agricultural cultivated land, so it is not easy to increase the supply. In order to maintain high oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries recently planned to reduce global oil production. A large amount of liquidity injected by countries to save financial markets, as well as concerns about the decline in the value of currencies such as the US dollar, will make more international hot money use commodity futures as a hedging tool. All these factors will aggravate the price fluctuation in the international commodity market.
Third, the prospect of Doha Round is dim, and the threat of trade protectionism is increasing.
Unlike the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which only affected some markets, developed economies such as the United States and Europe fell into financial crisis, which affected the stable operation of global trade. After the Doha Round broke down in July, although many members, especially developing countries, hoped to restart the negotiations, some fundamental differences were difficult to bridge in the short term. The outbreak of the financial crisis has made the prospect of a breakthrough in the Doha Round negotiations even more bleak. Moreover, the shrinking trade volume and the rising unemployment rate will make some countries and regions turn to more conservative trade policies, and the threat of global trade protectionism will increase.
Generally speaking, the economic downturn of major trading partners, the sharp drop in import demand, the sharp fluctuation of international commodity market prices and the possible depreciation of major currencies triggered by the international financial crisis will further affect China. It is predicted that the foreign trade situation in 2009 should be very pessimistic. Both import and export growth will slow down.
Fourth, China has certain space to cope with the impact.
China's foreign trade has achieved rapid growth for seven consecutive years. In recent years, the government has substantially adjusted its foreign economic and trade policies, including the continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, which has enabled enterprises to adapt to the survival and development in a tight environment in advance. Many localities and enterprises have actively changed their growth mode, optimized the structure of import and export commodities, accelerated technological progress and transformation and upgrading of processing trade, vigorously explored emerging markets and achieved positive results. A few enterprises that only rely on low-price competition have been eliminated, while enterprises that have certain advantages in technology, brand and customer channels have achieved greater development. The prices of most export commodities have gone up. It should be said that the overall competitiveness of China's export industry is still relatively strong, and the low-cost advantage has not been lost. The global financial crisis and economic downturn will give birth to a new round of international industrial adjustment. For the import and export enterprises in China, they are facing great challenges, but they may also get new development opportunities.
In 2009, the inherent kinetic energy of China's economic development is still sufficient. The fundamentals of the national economy and financial system are healthy. Thoroughly implementing Scientific Outlook on Development, adjusting and optimizing the structure and coordinating urban and rural development will bring huge and long-term investment and consumption demand. Relying on the solid material foundation formed since the reform and opening up, adopting flexible and prudent macroeconomic policies and actively and effectively expanding domestic demand will support and promote the steady and rapid economic growth.
China Municipal Government recently decided to increase the export tax rebate rate for labor-intensive products such as clothing and textiles and high value-added mechanical and electrical products, and there is still considerable room for operation in supporting the export of advantageous enterprises and products in the future. All regions and departments will increase credit support for import and export enterprises, speed up the progress of export tax rebate, encourage and help enterprises overcome difficulties, develop marketable products and expand new markets. At the same time, China has sufficient foreign exchange reserves, and will continue to actively expand imports to promote the basic balance of international payments. This is conducive to improving relations with major trading partners and reducing the pressure of trade protectionism. China's investment environment and infrastructure are constantly improving, with great growth potential. So far, the enthusiasm of foreign investors for direct investment in China has not diminished. Therefore, in the medium and long term, China's foreign trade development prospects are still very bright.