At present, February is coming to an end, but the pig price has not taken off because of the arrival of the school season. On the contrary, it has been cold all the time, and the north and south are "green".
According to the latest data, the price of live pigs in North China, East China, Northwest China and Southwest China turned from rising to falling, and the price of live pigs in many places fell below 16 yuan. Many farmers call their hearts cool when they see this situation.
What is the reason why so many pig prices have plummeted? Will the subsequent price cuts continue? Next, let's take a look at the pig price forecast in March 2023.
How much is a catty of pigs now?
Pig: 25 yuan/kg, Zhu Xiang, Cangnan County, Wenzhou City, Zhejiang Province; Fengcheng city Xiang Pig in Yichun City, Jiangxi Province 1 1 Yuan/Jin; 6 yuan/kg of flower pig in Bobai County, Yulin City, Guangxi; Binary pig 1 1.5 yuan/kg in Weining Yi, Hui and Miao Autonomous County, Bijie City, Guizhou Province; Zhongshan Large White Pig 12 yuan/kg; Black pig 15 yuan/kg, Shunqing District, Nanchong City, Sichuan Province; Black pig 17.5 yuan/kg in Zhenxiong County, Zhaotong City, Yunnan Province; Mixed pigs 1 1 yuan/kg in junan county, Linyi city, Shandong province; Chongqing Wulong Landrace Pig 15 yuan/kg; 9.5 yuan/kg of local pig in Wudu District, Longnan City, Gansu Province; Sanyuan pig 10.25 yuan/kg in Wugang city, Shaoyang city, Hunan province; Sanyuanzhu 18 yuan/kg in Yiling District, Yichang City, Hubei Province; Zhenba county sanyuan pig 15 yuan/kg in Hanzhong city, Shaanxi province.
Pork: front leg meat 10 yuan/kg in Lieshan District, Huaibei City, Anhui Province; Front leg meat 14.47 yuan/kg in Jiangning District, Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province; 9 yuan/kg of hind leg meat in Raoping County, Chaozhou City, Guangdong Province; 8.9 yuan/Jin 666, Pidu District, Chengdu, Sichuan; Gannan county, Qiqihar City, Heilongjiang Province, pig white strip 8.3 yuan/kg; Shanghai Pudong New Area Pig White Strips 10.2 yuan/kg; No.3 Meat in Wen 'an County, Langfang City, Hebei Province 12. 12 yuan/kg; 8 yuan/kg of minced meat in Quangang District, Quanzhou City, Fujian Province; Soil pork from Shangyou County, Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province 10 yuan/kg; Xiuwu County, Jiaozuo City, Henan Province 1 Meat 1 1.25 yuan/kg; Chongqing Jiulongpo District 1 Meat 9.83 yuan/kg; Pork belly 15 yuan/kg in xiaodian district, Taiyuan City; Pork belly 10.49 yuan/kg in Huaiyin District, Jinan City, Shandong Province.
Remarks: The above pig prices are all from the wholesale quotation of Huinong. Com, not the market retail price, for reference only! The actual price proposal is subject to the real-time quotation in the local market.
How did the pig price in many places fall below 16 yuan?
Judging from the current market situation, the mainstream purchase price of grassroots pigs has ushered in a large-scale decline. From south to north, including Guangxi, Hainan, Yunnan, Tibet, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Anhui, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Xinjiang, Shanxi, Hebei, Shaanxi, Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang, the price of pigs suddenly fell.
The reasons may be as follows:
1, pork warehousing is over.
On February 24th, the Ministry of Commerce reported that in 2023, the first batch of central reserves would store and store 7 100 tons of pork.
With the end of the first batch of purchasing and storage work in China, the price of pigs has also fallen.
Because when the purchasing and storage tasks of slaughter enterprises have not been completed on time, the acquisition progress is usually accelerated by raising the purchase price. Once the task of purchasing and storing is completed, the price reduction is certain.
2. Off-season pork consumption
At present, it is in the off-season of pork consumption, the terminal demand is insufficient, the sales situation of slaughter enterprises is not good, the slaughter enterprises suffer serious losses, and there is a certain phenomenon of price reduction.
3. The wait-and-see mood is getting stronger.
The recent drop in pig prices has increased the bearish mood of many farmers, and the downstream wait-and-see mood has intensified.
This also makes the consumption and circulation of the market decline, squeezing the price and profit of pork.
4. The market supply is sufficient.
After the Lantern Festival, with the improvement of the epidemic situation and the influence of official purchasing and storage news, the price of pigs has picked up, which has also stimulated the accelerated slaughter of pigs at the breeding end, resulting in a large number of pigs flooding into the market and being difficult to digest in a short time.
In addition, the supply of live pigs and pork in its own market is at a high level, but the demand is difficult to keep up, resulting in a drop in pig prices.
Will the subsequent price cuts continue?
Although the current pig price market is not satisfactory, there is still a good market in the follow-up.
First of all, some time ago, the price of pigs rose above 16 yuan/kg, but now it mostly falls back to 15.5- 15.9 yuan/kg, indicating that it has dropped a few cents. Secondly, after the temperature rises in March and April, the pork prepared in the early stage will be digested, pork consumption will enter the upward channel, and pig prices are expected to usher in an inflection point; Thirdly, if the pig price falls too fast, farmers will not see the profit and turn their heads to reduce the supply, and the follow-up market will gradually meet the demand, and the pig price will definitely rise again; Finally, the prices of feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal have started to rise steadily, and the price of pigs may rise slowly due to the factors of policy storage.
Therefore, even if there is a risk of subsequent decline in pig prices, it is expected that the decline will not be too great, mainly because the shock adjustment is weak and there is no need to be discouraged.
Forecast of hog price in March 2023
At present, it is not the mainstream period of rising pig prices, so in the short term, from the end of February to the beginning of March, the negative factors are obviously more than the positive factors, and it is expected that pig prices will still have the risk of bottoming out again.
However, as previously analyzed, this round of decline may be unsustainable.
On the one hand, the recovery of consumer demand in March will form a favorable support for pig prices. On the other hand, on the supply side, the number of live pigs may decrease due to the sluggish market, which also supports the subsequent recovery of pig prices.
Under the double blessing of supply and demand, the pig price may rise above the profit and loss line again in March, but it is difficult to have a big rise. It is expected that a narrow range of shocks will become the main tone of the pig price trend in March.
Generally speaking, affected by multiple negative factors, the price of pigs in many places has recently turned from prosperous to declining, and the price has fallen below the 16 yuan mark, and farmers' profits have obviously shrunk, and some areas have reached the cost line.
Although many people are disheartened by this round of "tragic drop" in pig prices, the market will eventually return to the fundamentals of pig production capacity. With the temperature rising in March and consumption picking up, the pig price is expected to rise in theory.
However, correspondingly, driven by bullish sentiment, the scale of pig slaughter may also increase, and pig prices will continue to be under pressure, so the hope of a big increase is relatively small, and the subsequent pig prices will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range.
How to treat this pig price trend? Welcome to leave a message for discussion.