According to the reporter's understanding, the main contract of egg futures 150 1 oscillated around the integer mark of 4800 yuan /500 kg for many days, and it was a "thrilling jump" yesterday. The main contract decreased by 40,006 lots, and the current position is139,448 lots, which is less than last Friday.
According to the reporter's understanding, after entering the autumn and winter festivals where bird flu is frequent, any trouble about the occurrence of bird flu epidemic will have a major impact on the egg period and spot price.
On the 2nd of this month, the Health and Family Planning Commission of Jiangsu Province reported that there was a confirmed case of H7N9 avian influenza 1 case in Jiangsu Province, which was the first confirmed case in Jiangsu Province since autumn and winter this year.
"As an important province of egg consumption in China, the bird flu epidemic in Jiangsu Province has reappeared, which has a great impact on market psychology.
Zhan Xiao, an analyst of Xinhu Futures, told the reporter of Futures Daily that the market outlook needs to pay close attention to the latest development of bird flu epidemic, and the trend of egg period and spot price has entered a complex and changeable period.
In addition to the bird flu epidemic, the lower spot price of eggs in Hebei, Liaoning and Shandong provinces also affected the "big retreat" of both sides yesterday.
According to Zhan Xiao, since 5438+00 at the beginning of June, the price of the main egg producing areas in China has remained high.
Affected by this, the price of egg futures rose sharply in 10.
Last weekend, affected by the bird flu epidemic, the northern producing areas with the strongest spot price of eggs also significantly lowered the delivery price of eggs, which became an important factor for the sharp drop in egg futures prices yesterday.
According to statistics of Zhihua, on June 3rd10, the average price of eggs in each province was 4,860 yuan /500 kg, down by 30 yuan /500 kg from the previous month.
The average price of the main sales area is 5 150 yuan /500 kg, down by 60 yuan /500 kg from the previous month; The average price of the main producing areas was 4,890 yuan /500kg, down by 20 yuan /500kg from the previous month.
"Last weekend, the price of eggs in the Guangzhou market has dropped to 5,000 yuan /500 kg, down 10.7% compared with 5,600 yuan /500 kg in June.
Zhan Xiao said that the falling prices in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai began to put pressure on the prices of producing areas, which was also an important reason for the collective downward adjustment of egg prices in producing areas last weekend.
The receipt and delivery of eggs by spot traders also indirectly verified the structural imbalance between supply and demand in the market.
"From the monitoring of the national egg traders, it is the main feature that the eggs are collected quickly and delivered slowly.
Qin Shihua of Zhihua Data said that under this market structure, egg traders' bearish expectations for the market outlook began to increase.
According to the after-hours statistics of the Dashang Institute yesterday, yongan futures, which ranked first in egg 150 1 contract last Friday, reduced its position by 3,067 lots to 330 1 lot, with a lightening ratio of 48.2%; Last Friday, haitong futures, the third bull, reduced his position by 2,706 lots to 103 1 lot, with a reduction ratio of 72.4%.
In terms of short positions, galaxy futures, Guotai Junan Futures and Founder Mid-term Futures, which ranked in the top three last Friday, all showed obvious lightening trends, with lightening ratios of 3 1.7%, 24% and 20.5% respectively.
For the egg market outlook, the above analysts believe that after a sharp reduction in positions yesterday, the egg market basically digested the negative factors of last weekend, and there is not much room for decline in the short term. However, if the bird flu epidemic continues to expand in the later period, the egg period and spot price may further decline.