China people are used to following the crowd and scrambling to catch up with them. This is a typical herd mentality. People are used to climbing high. When they see that they can make money, everyone will chase after them. This is similar to the fact that herbivores have to be crowded together to feel safe. This is the thinking of sheep. Western investors, especially short sellers, are mostly wolf-minded. They will patiently observe the weakness of their prey and see fierce culling. This is the thinking of shorting.

Q (The questioner is Ai Jingwei, the same below): The China market is dominated by bulls, and investors generally lack short thinking. How do you think to cultivate the ability of short positions?

Zhang Tingbin: Short-selling ability is a high-level investment ability. In the international market, investors with short-selling ability account for 5% ~ 10% of the total investors. In China, only investors in the futures market have the ability to short.

Q: Why are there so few?

Zhang Tingbin: Because the ability of short selling has no historical origin for China people, China people have a short exposure to modern financial markets. Since the reform and opening up, the stock market has been more than 20 years, and the futures time is shorter. Even before the founding of New China, there was short-term stock investment in Shanghai. At that time, it was long.

This is also related to the way of thinking of China people. China people are used to following the crowd and rushing to catch up. This is a typical herd mentality. People are used to climbing high. When they saw that they could make money, everyone went after them. This is similar to the fact that herbivores have to be crowded together to feel safe. This is the thinking of sheep. Western investors, especially short sellers, are mostly wolf-minded. They will observe the weakness of their prey and see fierce culling. This is the thinking of shorting.

Another reason is that the vast majority of China investors have to compete with international investors in all varieties that can be shorted, because the rules of the global financial market are established by westerners and the core is established by Americans; Everyone plays cards together, and the cards are also visible to westerners; In addition, the big cycle that determines the ups and downs of the market is often determined by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which is also the leading force of other countries. Not to mention the capital scale and experience of investment, the vast majority of China people are hard to reach. Therefore, there are a few people who make money, especially those who make less money by shorting.

Therefore, few people in China have the ability to short. If they really have the ability to short, there are also some people who have experienced it in the futures market. But most of these people rely on intuition or technicalism, and most of them lack systematic analytical ability and research ability.