1. The downward pressure on the economy may ease slightly.
2015-September 20 10, the difference between CPI and PPI reached more than 7.2 percentage points, showing the continuous deepening of China's economy since the second half of 201/kloc-0. At present, the factors that make CPI decline are agricultural product prices and food prices, and the factors that make CPI rebound are the rising labor costs of base public utilities and service industries. The factor that makes PPI decline lies in the continued strength of the US dollar index, and the factor that makes PPI improve lies in the cardinal utility.
On a comprehensive balance, the difference between CPI and PPI in China may be moderately reduced from 20 156438+0 1. The collocation of prices may imply that the downward pressure on China's economy will ease slightly in 20 16. At the same time, in the remaining two months of 20 15, the possibility of RRR and interest rate cut by the central bank will also be weakened.
2. The investment growth rate will fall below 10%.
In 20 14 and 20 15 years, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in China was 20% and 17% respectively. It is estimated that the investment growth rate of China may fall below 10% in 20 16. Among the three factors supporting investment, the possibility of industrial investment improving is very weak, and the growth rate of real estate investment will only be between 0-3%. The key factor lies in the government-led infrastructure investment. The scale of infrastructure investment in 20 15 years may be 13.5 trillion yuan. Even if the growth rate of infrastructure investment is 12%, it means that the scale of infrastructure investment in 20 16 will exceed 15 trillion yuan, which is extremely challenging. Even if the fiscal policy relaxes deficit ratio to 3% or even 3.5%, it will be difficult to support the continuous expansion of infrastructure investment, not to mention that the main way of fiscal force may be the tax reduction of supply-side policy, not infrastructure.
3. The profit rate of the real economy will increase slightly.
In 20 16 years, it is difficult to observe the improvement of China's real economy from the total indicators of industrial investment, added value and total profit. However, the after-tax net interest rate of the main business of industrial enterprises above designated size may increase. This net profit rate is 5.5% and 5.2% at 20 14 and 20 15 respectively, and the profit rate of industrial enterprises may rise slightly to the level of 20 16. There are two reasons: first, the market interest rate remains at a stable low level, which increases the financial cost of enterprises, and the replacement pricing of enterprise debt cost may last for more than 3 years; Second, PPI may be improved. So 20 16 may have different views on the real economy. People who pay attention to aggregate indicators tend to think that the real economy is still deteriorating, while those who pay attention to marginal indicators may think that there are signs of improvement.
4. The profit growth rate of China's banking industry will enter the zero era.
This is not surprising. The marketization of interest rates is nearing completion, the shadow banking is shrinking again, the demand for entity loans is sluggish, and the income channels of intermediary business are exhausted, forcing China's banking industry to enter the era of zero profit growth from 20 16. In 20 15 years, the banking industry may have a growth rate of book profit of about 3%. In the next two to three years, the overall pattern of the banking industry is that the overall profit is zero, the performance differentiation is intensified, the non-performing assets are Shuang Sheng, it is difficult to replenish capital, the merger and reorganization of the industry is accelerated, and bank holding is gradually becoming the mainstream. If most industries with overcapacity are industries that have expanded too fast three years after the subprime mortgage crisis under government intervention, then the banks that meet the government intervention and rapid expansion are mainly small and medium-sized city commercial banks.
5. RMB exchange rate is becoming more and more flexible.
At present, it seems that the possibility of RMB joining the SDR currency basket is very high. 20 16 may be a year in which RMB internationalization is gradually accelerated. The possible attitude of the central bank is to reduce foreign exchange intervention, expand exchange rate fluctuations and guide the RMB exchange rate to a balanced and sustainable level. Therefore, even if $20 16 remains strong, the biggest feature of RMB exchange rate is not depreciation, but the flexible expansion of fluctuation range and the continuous enhancement of market self-regulation ability. It is not surprising if the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar finally fluctuates around 6.35, reaching around 4%.
6. The consumption growth rate may increase to 1 1% or even higher.
There are two factors that lead to sustained strong consumption: one is related to housing. Stock houses and commercial housing transactions are active. At present, China real estate does not have the ability to stimulate investment such as steel and cement, but it still has the ability to stimulate consumption such as home appliances. In 2065+05, the sales area and amount of commercial housing may increase by 8% and 15% respectively, creating a historical peak exceeding 20 13 years, and the real estate situation next year is likely to be the same as this year. The second is the improvement related to automobiles, especially the sales amount of refined oil.
The popularity of "gnawing at the old" has slowed down the income growth and employment difficulties of residents without directly impacting consumption. In 20 16, the contribution rate of consumption to China's economic growth may rise to 60%, while the contribution rate of industry will continue to decrease.
7. The A-share market is accelerating normalization.
Looking back on China A-share market since 20 13, the financing function is intermittent, the supervision is loose or tight, and the market is hot and cold. It has never been a normalized, multi-level market with financing, restructuring and investor protection. After the extraordinary turmoil from July to August in 2065438+2005, the A-share market is accelerating from the abnormal situation after the rescue to the new normal. IPO restart, registration system landing, stratification of the New Third Board, normalization of stock index futures trading are just around the corner, and even strategic emerging boards and international boards are not far away. After RMB joins SDR, it is not surprising that A shares that return to normal at 20 16 are included in MSCI index.
Up to now, equity capital accounts for less than 5% of China residents' wealth allocation, while the proportion in the United States is 20%. In addition, the investment of non-residents in China's securities market accounts for less than 3%. 20 16 it is inevitable that the standardization, marketization and internationalization of China stock market will accelerate.
8. The low interest rate has finally arrived.
Since 20 1 1, the growth of China has been slowing down continuously, but the interest rate level runs counter to the growth slowdown. There are two main factors: first, the shadow banking system is constantly expanding, and the nominal interest rate raised by high-leverage and high-risk shadow banks has enriched the profits of banks, but at present, China's shadow banking has shrunk again, and the proportion of bank credit in the total social financing has returned to a decisive position; Second, the marketization of interest rates inevitably pushes up interest rates and narrows spreads, forcing China's economy to bear the pressure of deleveraging. At present, interest rate marketization has come to an end.
Therefore, since the second half of 20 15, China's interest rate level has gradually coincided with the slowdown of economic growth. If China's economic growth is unlikely to recover strongly in the next few years, then low interest rates will continue. There are three factors that will affect China's interest rate in the future: first, the overall trend of domestic prices; Second, the willingness and means of the central bank to continue to be loose; Third, changes in the US dollar index and the yield of US Treasury bonds. Generally speaking, at least before the first half of 20 16, China's interest rate level will be stable, and the debt reset of government and enterprises will put greater pressure on the bond supply side, and credit bonds will break the shadow of just exchange.
9. China's foreign trade will be affected.
The average annual growth rate of China's foreign trade was as high as 10 in the 1990s and 20% at the beginning of the new century. However, due to three factors, this high growth has gradually disappeared: first, globalization is retrogressing, not accelerating. Emerging countries can no longer rely on external demand-led growth. China's current account surplus has shrunk from 5% of GDP to 10% to just over 2% at present. Second, regionalism and protectionism are on the rise. The TPP/TTIP promoted by the United States has deviated from the WTO framework. The terrorist attacks in Paris will also force Europe to be more right-leaning and conservative. China may try its best to promote free trade and investment agreements with relevant economies, but it is difficult to reverse the overall situation. Third, the RMB exchange rate and export tax rebate are unlikely to be used to stimulate trade, and the growth of China's foreign trade will increasingly depend on the growth of China's foreign direct investment. In 20 16, China's foreign trade will still be in a state of sharing weal and woe with global trade.
10. China's financial reform will present a new pattern.
This new pattern has two characteristics: first, financial reform is faster than the transformation of the real economy; Second, financial opening and internationalization are faster than internal opening and marketization. The 13th Five-Year Plan provides a clear framework for China's financial reform. The reform of regulatory framework, internationalization of RMB and RMB becoming a hard currency are all due achievements of financial reform during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. However, it is still difficult for the real economy to achieve de-capacity, strategic shift and the rise of emerging industries. At the same time, the financial opening layout with AIIB, the "Belt and Road" strategy and the internationalization of RMB as the core may have less resistance than the marketization and privatization of domestic financial reform.
Generally speaking, starting from 20 16, the new pattern of financial reform may gradually become clear. The history of Japan, the United States and other countries shows that a country actively guides the overseas allocation of savings and production capacity, that is, the process of all money, industry and employment going abroad, which will bring long-term suppression to domestic asset prices. 20 16 ten conjectures about China's economic trend.