This year's New Year's Day and Spring Festival are about half a month shorter than in previous years, which also greatly shortens the time for farmers to sell grain before the Spring Festival. At present, the centralized listing of corn also directly leads to the continuous decline in prices. Judging from the current market reaction, the supply pressure is still relatively large, and it is not optimistic about the price increase of corn in the later period. However, as far as the overall situation is concerned, based on the optimism about the future corn market, some traders still have the willingness to store grain, and there is limited room for decline in the later period.
The weak trend of corn will continue.
Since the beginning of 65438+February, the price of corn has dropped by 100- 150 yuan per ton, but at present, it is still higher than 100 yuan per ton at the beginning of October. As far as the later market is concerned, it is not enough to fall back to its original shape. After all, the future supply situation determines that this stage is only an adjustment.
However, the negative factors of the market still exist. According to the data of State Grain and Material Reserve Bureau, as of June 5438+February 65438+May, Heilongjiang, Shandong and other major producing areas 1 1 have purchased 33.77 million tons of corn, a year-on-year decrease of/kloc-0.09 million tons. And the year-on-year acquisition progress is far behind last year. From this point of view, it will enter the peak period of grain sales in the market between now and the Spring Festival.
In 65438+February, due to the fall of corn price adjustment, farmers' wait-and-see mentality was also heavier. However, as time went on, they had to sell food. The current page is about to enter the New Year's Day stage, and will enter the Spring Festival next month. Farmers' psychology is also anxious, which increases the supply of the market in a short time and will inevitably have an impact on the following market conditions.
There is limited room for price reduction before the Spring Festival.
Although the market has entered the stage of continuous adjustment, we don't have to worry too much about developing agriculture through science and technology, especially our friends in North China. Up to now, the price adjustment space is only about one ton in 50 yuan, and we can totally afford such an adjustment range. For example, the current mainstream quotation in North China is still 1930-2000 yuan per ton.
The reason why the development of agricultural science thinks that the adjustment space is limited also comes from the supply side of corn. According to the latest data, the total output of corn decreased by 6.5438+0.74 million tons this year, which was 0.67% lower than that of 2065.438+0.7. While the attack is not optimistic, traders dare not significantly reduce the purchase price. The inventory of corn processing enterprises is generally low. According to estimates, the inventory of most deep processing enterprises can only last for 20 days. Therefore, once the price is greatly reduced and the supply is reduced, it will be difficult to maintain the subsequent production market.
To sum up, with the approach of New Year's Day and Spring Festival, the improvement of farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain is a predictable result. At present, the price adjustment of corn in Northeast China has also been relatively large, and it is expected to remain weak in the later period. For North China, this is also the area where corn deep processing enterprises are concentrated in China, and the supply will increase or decrease further.