Upstairs is full of nonsense. . . It is normal for the spot price to be higher than 100, mainly because the bulls dare not accept the goods, because there are too many meals on the market now, and the harvest is high this year, especially after 1 1 month, a large number of meals arrive in Hong Kong. In this case, if the bulls receive the goods in the futures market, they may not be able to sell them in the spot market after delivery, or they can only sell them at a discount, which is not cost-effective. If it is a 1 month contract after receiving goods from multiple warehouses, it should stop trading on the tenth trading day of 1 month, and then deliver the spot at the specified time. When you get the spot and ship it back 1 at the end of the month, if you can't find a good buyer or a large amount of rapeseed meal arrives in Hong Kong at that time, the spot price will plummet, and the receiver will definitely die miserably. Therefore, it generally depends on whether the spot price can be stable or firm for more than one month after the contract expires. Otherwise, few people do long futures.

Now soybean meal is also facing the same situation. For short selling, it will also be affected by this situation, but another problem to be avoided is the problem of forced liquidation. If you are short because of a large basis, but the spot is actually very tight, the short-selling spot dealer is likely to forcibly open a position because he can't get enough spot delivery. .

There are two main mistakes in your situation: one is that you don't understand the trading rules, and the other is that you only see the current basis situation without looking at the future. Only in the case of trading rules can we see the future clearly and combine the foundation to do this cross-market arbitrage well.

Personal opinion, for reference only.