If China's crude oil imports drop sharply and other countries remain unchanged, then the oil price will inevitably fall, but it will not fall to a negative value as it did at the beginning of the epidemic. At the beginning of the epidemic, the demand for crude oil in countries all over the world was greatly reduced, which led to the stagnation of most of human production and life, and the consumption of oil as an important industrial raw material and energy was very small.
On the whole, the supply is far greater than the demand, and the epidemic continues. No one knows how long this situation will last. Panic and reality led to a sharp drop in oil prices. If only China's crude oil imports have fallen sharply, it is far from this level. The biggest possibility is a slight drop in international oil prices, which is positively related to the decrease in China's crude oil imports.
However, the sharp drop in China's crude oil imports will not only lead to a drop in oil prices, but also have a far-reaching impact. At present, the supply side and demand side of crude oil in the market are quite similar, with occasional fluctuations, but the fluctuations are not large, and the oil price is also maintained in a stable range.
However, once China reduces its demand for crude oil, there will be an oversupply in the market. The direct reaction of the market is that oil prices have fallen. The question is whether this surplus crude oil in the market can be digested by the market. If it cannot be digested, the crude oil production capacity will be seriously surplus.
For oil-producing countries, only by reducing crude oil production can oil prices be prevented from falling due to overcapacity. For oil-producing countries, this will also reduce the income from oil, and the chain reaction may trigger an oil crisis again.