Source: Network
How to treat the Didi incident?
Jerry: The problem of Didi is very serious. It was at a sensitive time that it got stuck between China and the United States. Didi itself has become the public enemy of the whole people, and basically all people in the financial industry and investment industry are dissatisfied with Didi's practice. The only people who are grateful to them are early investors like Haitou in the United States, because once listed, they can be realized, otherwise they will never be retired. When Didi went public last time, it took two years to rectify and catch up with the ride.
If he doesn't bite the bullet this time, he won't know when it will go public. For reference, for example, the ant gold suit disappeared.
Existing shareholders are not satisfied, because they have been falling since they bought at IPO price, so shareholders will sue you for not fully disclosing, and the regulatory authorities require you to rectify the data before listing, so you just leave.
Investment banks are not satisfied either. There are only a few investment banks, such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase. Everyone is dissatisfied with the investment bank, and the investment bank is also dissatisfied.
It is also possible that the investment bank knows, but it is already the last journey. If you don't go public, you won't get money. In order to make money, you have to bite the bullet. Supervision dissatisfaction is affirmative, and supervision has been caught off guard. I asked you to rectify, and then you said it very well. First, you didn't do the rectification, and then you secretly went to work without even ringing the bell.
Supervision is definitely firm, and I want to make Didi a model to set an example. Others, like the full gang, are directly hired by the Boss at the same time, which is followed by bad luck. Because the full gang also has the problem of customer information and traffic information, so does the boss's direct employment. But if there were no Didi, maybe they wouldn't be implicated. Speaking of fundamental issues, the cancellation of several other listed companies, and then the collapse of the listed stocks, all belong to a collateral effect.
But the most fundamental problem is between China and the United States, such as how to connect the capital markets, and what everyone has been afraid to mention, such as the fragility of VIE. VIE has existed for decades and has been used since Sina was first listed. For example, because Ali, JD.COM and Didi are actually Cayman companies, the listed entity is Cayman, with its business in China and its core business in China. If this VIE is disconnected, Cayman's holding company is actually worthless. How to support the market value of listed companies?
This involves the basic problem, which does not rule out supervision. As long as the company does not take the world by storm, the supervision will not give him a breathing space. However, if challenged, this is a fundamental question, that is, what is the connection between your company and China's business, so this is indeed a lot of issues that touch the soul.
The Didi incident affected the listed Chinese stocks, and the stock price plummeted. What are the challenges for China Stock Exchange to grow in the US stock market?
Jerry: The most important thing is compliance. First you have to abide by it in China, and then in the United States. Before Didi's accident, these giant companies were already under antitrust investigation, including Meituan. Basically, what do they make money from? Both are market shares, accounting for more than half. This is a strong monopoly, so I think we should abide by the laws and regulations and meet the regulatory requirements in China.
In the United States, it is also necessary to abide by laws and regulations and meet the requirements of American supervision. For example, the American Public Company Accounting Oversight Board requires that you should disclose audit documents, and then your audit company should report in the United States, so these compliance are the most important. This is a little more complicated, just like whether the VIE architecture is compliant or not. There is no correct statement now.
The second depends on the company itself. Companies should do a good job in corporate governance, such as Ali and Tencent. In fact, they haven't shrunk that much, mainly because everyone thinks that they have been listed for six or seven years, and their corporate governance is better, more transparent and more standardized, which is different from those small stocks that are often shorted. So I think that once the company is well managed, it can build the trust of investors.
The third is compliance disclosure. To do a good job in public relations, we need to go deep into public relations companies, introduce third-party organizations, do some roadshows and communicate with investors regularly. So I think these things need to be done for a long time, but the core is to do a good job of compliance and then manage the company. ESG is quite popular recently. ESG talks more about environmental and social impacts, but less about corporate governance. We can take this opportunity to make up for the shortcomings.
Domestic censorship intensified because of domestic troubles and foreign invasion of China Stock Exchange. US stocks are also unfriendly to China Stock Exchange. For example, it is required to re-implement the foreign company accountability law, stipulating that it will be delisted after less than three years of effective supervision. Is the attractiveness of US stocks weakening at present, and is it worthwhile to go public in the US?
Jerry: The American Public Company Accounting Oversight Board is an old rule. The foreign company liability law is not only aimed at China companies. All ADR companies, including countries in Europe, Latin America and Southeast Asia, must abide by this regulation when listing in the United States. At present, only China Company has not disclosed the auditing rules. I think this is equivalent to a loophole in supervision. There are no strict regulations in China on what is sensitive information and what can and cannot be made public.
In addition, it is the same in America. The bill has been established for many years. Why should it be suddenly strengthened at this time? This is still because of the game between China and the United States, so I think Biden has continued some of Trump's policies, so it has become a law to be enforced. I think it is actually good for the company: strengthen compliance supervision and strengthen corporate governance.
Recently, many Chinese stock companies have delisted from the United States and re-listed in Hong Kong, but in terms of financing amount, liquidity and valuation, they are still much worse than US stocks. Because the American stock market is the largest capital market in the world first, and then the most open capital market, including Ali, originally wanted to go public in Hong Kong, but Hong Kong did not support this two-tier AB stock structure, so these diluted entrepreneurs lost control of the company.
Generally speaking, listing in the United States is definitely worth it. Why go public? One is to raise funds, and to further grow, capital is needed; However, in addition to this brand effect, many people are bleeding to go public, or they can't get the money to go public. American listed companies are still of great positive help to your brand and business.
Therefore, the attractiveness of US stocks is still there, even increasing, but the core is which companies are suitable and which companies' supervision agrees with you. These are actually several different issues that need to be treated separately by different companies in different situations.
Many China companies, such as Himalaya, Keep, Zero Krypton Technology, etc. Will this have an impact on the investment of American VC?
Jerry: VC is a long-term fund, at least VC funds are 10 years. Why do people go public now? Mainly because of the current high liquidity and valuation, everyone is catching up with the window period to achieve listing. That is not to say, if you can't go to the market this time, you will never go to the market again, or if you don't realize it this time, the market will collapse and you should treat it differently.
Himalayan, Keep and other companies are companies with massive data and a lot of sensitive information, so it is normal to be censored. But I think the impact on the capital market should be looked at separately. Some companies are really sensitive, and may not let you go public overseas, but only in China.
Some are insensitive, such as Himalayas and Keep. I think these are personal applications and there should be no information related to national security. However, what involves national security is stipulated by the state, and we also have the final say, so I think non-sensitive industries are under examination and approval. After the approval, the state allows you to go public, and then you go through the process overseas and then go public. This is also feasible.
But for example, Ant Financial is not listed overseas, but it can't be listed in China, mainly because it involves finance, not necessarily because of technology companies. I think it should be treated differently, but the rules are formulated by the regulatory authorities, and we are not rule makers. I may not be able to follow if I want to, because it is very vague now, and I don't know which industries are sensitive, which are sensitive information, which can be listed and which can't be listed. This is very imperfect and will be chaotic for a while.
But what if everyone is eager to go public now? I think the Hong Kong market is also an option, but it also needs the approval of the regulatory authorities. In the future, Hong Kong may become an international version of China, just like Shenzhen, for example, because Shanghai says it has been pushing the international version, but it has been unable to push it out. If Hong Kong can be changed into an international version, it will become a listed stock trading platform directly managed by China. Listing in Hong Kong is equivalent to listing in China, which is also an option.
What is the impact of Hong Kong stocks on the secondary market in the United States?
Jerry: The impact on the American market is not so great, because after all, the proportion of China stocks is still relatively small, and then it may be of great help to the Hong Kong market, because Hong Kong started with some real estate companies and financial companies, and later, because Tencent and Meituan listed in Hong Kong and perfected a series of companies, Hong Kong now has a high technology content.
Therefore, if these companies can be listed in Hong Kong, it will be very helpful to promote the entire investment environment and the deep liquidity of the market in Hong Kong. But this is not what everyone is worried about. What everyone is worried about is who will manage the stock market in Hong Kong.
What are your experiences in investing in US stocks?
Jerry: The company started to invest in ETFs on 15, mainly in global asset allocation, and just invested in some emerging markets' S&P 500 and SPY or EEM investment indexes.
Stock is equity, and equity has long-term investment opportunities. First of all, in the long run, its income is the highest, surpassing other asset classes such as real estate, bonds and so on. In addition, liquidity is better, but the biggest problem is that the stock market fluctuates greatly, and everyone should have a long-term investment mentality.
Then in addition, you should be able to resist risks. In recent months, the stock market has fluctuated greatly, and the risk is still high. Professional research should be carried out before investing. Really not, you can buy a Berkshire and follow Buffett to buy stocks. We must have exposure, which must be configured, but how to configure it depends on the individual's risk tolerance.
What is the difference between the investment trend of US stocks in the second half of the year and that in the first half?
Jerry: The first half of the year exposed many risks, such as the risk of inflation, the risk of rising commodities, and the risk of when the Federal Reserve will withdraw from quantitative easing and start raising interest rates. I think the fluctuation in the first half of the year is quite large.
Then, in addition, this will not delay the rise of the stock market. Basically, the three major stock indexes are hitting new highs, from 12 to 14, which basically means that we think we have eaten up this year's dividend. In the second half of the year, basically, the global economy is still recovering, but it may not grow as fast as it did in the second half of last year and the first half of this year, so the growth rate will slow down.
In addition, judging from the income of the capital market, at the beginning of the year, investment banks and asset management companies predicted that this year might be around 10, so the target was basically achieved in the first half of this year, and judging from the judgment at the beginning of the year, there should be no income in the second half, so I think everyone may still be conservative.
As an investor in US stocks, will it be affected by changes in Sino-US policies? Do you need to adjust your strategy?
Jerry: The impact of this policy should be long-term. It turns out that Biden will be slower after taking office, but on the surface, the means are only milder, but in fact, fundamentally speaking, friction and confrontation are needed between China and the United States. But I don't think this will affect investment. For example, our own positioning is to be a global asset allocation platform, and the goal is to let you invest in global opportunities and spread risks.
You can't put eggs in one basket, which is basically a relatively balanced allocation strategy. There are stocks, bonds, real estate, VC, and the markets are China, the United States and emerging markets.
We can't judge which sector in Europe or emerging markets will perform better in the second half of this year. The national debt has fallen sharply now, but it may rise again in the second half of the year. So I think investors still need a long-term and stable strategy.
Three suggestions for investors
Jerry: Let's go back to the basics. First of all, it means that you should have correct values. Everyone emphasizes that the three views should be correct, so investment also has its own investment values. For example, we all follow Buffett's value investment concept and Yale University's fund model, that is, investing in long-term, diversified and emerging markets, so I think values are very important.
Many young or inexperienced investors who have just entered the market have never bought stocks. When they came up, they just bought GME options, because they thought they were rising rapidly, or they never bought stocks and bonds, and they never made any investments. They bought bitcoin as soon as they came up. I think this is not so much an investment mentality as a speculative mentality.
First of all, establish correct values and correct investment ideas. Once you get used to making quick money, you get used to this kind of activity. Fluctuation 10 point every day. For many people, this is nothing, because bitcoin may be more volatile, and options and futures are higher. So we think it is very risky to fluctuate by one point every day.
Secondly, there must be a portfolio strategy. For example, if you invest in stocks, bonds or real estate, how much do you think should be allocated in China, the United States and emerging markets? You must have a big strategy. We call it strategic investment. Then you will make some strategic adjustments according to the market situation every year or quarter, but the overall strategy should be stable for a long time, and at least you should make an investment strategy of 10 years.
This is in line with your previous values. If your values are to keep an eye on the market, such as 24-hour bitcoin trading and 24-hour staring at the market, you won't spend time thinking about what the market will look like in 10 years, what combination you will have in 10 years, and what benefits you will get in the next 10 years. You may be concerned about what the price will be like in the next hour. Once you set the wrong values, you can't be a real investor, not that your future is dangerous.
The last suggestion is to keep studying. Buffett is over 90 years old and still insists on reading books, newspapers and American consumer news and business channels every day. Continuous learning is very important. Everyone should follow these value investors and senior investors, read more books and newspapers, watch some news, constantly cultivate the concept of value investment and improve their overall knowledge structure. This is very important for long-term investment, and you can learn new things every day.