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Oil prices ushered in the "seventh drop" in the year, and 95 # gasoline is expected to return to the "8 yuan era"
According to the news of the National Development and Reform Commission on 2 September1day, domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products, the same below) have been reduced in 290 yuan and 280 yuan respectively since 24: 00 on 2 September1day, 2022. After a brief rebound, oil prices ushered in the "seventh decline" during the year. In addition, the agency believes that after this round of oil price adjustment, No.95 gasoline is expected to fully return to the "8 yuan era".

In the new round of price adjustment cycle, the national average price of 92 # gasoline, 95 # gasoline and 0 # diesel decreased by 0.23 yuan, 0.24 yuan and 0.24 yuan per liter respectively. Take an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example. After this price reduction, it takes the owner about 1 1.5 yuan to fill up a box of No.92 gasoline.

The last round of price adjustment ended the five consecutive rounds of downward adjustment of domestic oil prices, and the 17 round of price adjustment has shown a pattern of "eleven rises and six falls". The previous "six drops" were: in the seventh round (at 24: 00 on April 15), the price of gasoline and diesel was lowered by 545 yuan and 530 yuan per ton respectively; 12 (at 24: 00 on June 28th), the price of gasoline and diesel oil was lowered by 320 yuan and 3 10 yuan per ton respectively; 13 (at 24: 00 on July 12), the price of gasoline and diesel oil was lowered by 360 yuan and 345 yuan per ton respectively; 14 (at 24: 00 on July 26th), the price of gasoline and diesel oil was lowered in 300 yuan and 290 yuan respectively per ton; The price of gasoline and diesel in the15th round (at 24: 00 on August 9) was lowered 130 yuan and 125 yuan respectively; 16 (at 24: 00 on August 23rd), the price of gasoline and diesel oil was lowered by 205 yuan and 200 yuan respectively per ton.

After the last round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window (at 24: 00 on September 6) was opened, the international oil price was full of twists and turns-first, it fell sharply for two consecutive days, and WTI crude oil futures even reached the $80/barrel mark. At that time, Zhongyu Information analyst Li Jiaying said that the focus of the market was once again attracted by the risk of economic recession or the suppression of demand. In addition, the inventory of API crude oil in the United States has risen sharply, and the market's concern about the demand for crude oil has led to another plunge in international crude oil.

In the following trading days, the international oil price rose continuously. In the last pricing cycle of Zhuochuang Refined Oil Wholesale Index (September 13 to September 16), the international crude oil price fluctuated again, so the domestic calculated crude oil change rate ran in a negative range.

Susan Wang, an analyst of Jinlianchuang refined oil products, said that the supply prospect of crude oil market is still unclear, and the expectation that Russian crude oil supply will be reduced for a time provides strong support for oil prices; However, under the expectation of raising interest rates in Europe and America, the global economic slowdown has put pressure on oil prices. At the same time, the current US dollar index hit a new high in nearly 20 years, which led to an increase in negative pressure on oil prices.

As of the close of morning trading on September 2 1 day, Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures fell 1.49% to 84.45 USD/barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell 1.5% to $90.62/barrel.

Zhuo Chuang Information Analysis believes that this week (September1September-September 23rd), the retail price limit reduction of refined oil products is expected to cover the market, which puts pressure on the wholesale price of refined oil products, and at the same time, the demand lacks support, and the focus of wholesale price may continue to be mainly shock. In addition, the shortage of resources in the main units has eased in the middle and late period, and the transaction price may continue to be loose considering the weakening of the bidding willingness of the main units.

Looking ahead, there are still differences in the market. Zhuochuang Information predicts that the domestic wholesale price index of refined oil may fluctuate downward during this pricing cycle, that is, from September 19 to September 23.

Li Yan, an analyst of refined oil products of Longzhong Information, pointed out that the energy supply problem in Europe is still there, and it will become more obvious after the start of the heating season of 5438+ 10. International oil prices are still facing upward risks, and it is expected that the next round of refined oil price increase is more likely. Wang Yanting, an analyst of Jinlianchuang refined oil products, believes that since the international crude oil trend is still relatively volatile in the short term, the probability of a new round of refined oil price reduction is still relatively high.

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