Listen to what the central bank says and see what the central bank does.

The decision of monetary policy depends largely on domestic economic growth and inflation, and the market often predicts the policy trend after observing a series of economic data. In addition, observing monetary policy also needs to pay attention to the speeches of central bank governors, regular meetings of the central bank's monetary policy Committee, statements of the central bank's monetary policy implementation report and signals transmitted by various monetary policy tools. Usually, from official information, we can understand the medium and long-term monetary policy orientation of the central bank, and we can also understand the policy priorities for a period of time. Through the observation of monetary policy tools, especially the observation of quantity and price in open market operation, we can make a general judgment on the attitude and short-term liquidity of the central bank. For example, when inflation shows signs of rising, if the operating interest rate of an open market suddenly rises, it may mean that the central bank will raise interest rates in the future. For another example, when funds between banks are tight, the central bank has not put a lot of money in the open market, which may be a signal that monetary policy is tight.

Macro-level funds are determined by monetary policy, but specific to each institution is different. Because banks have the largest transaction volume in the national debt market, this paper mainly introduces the capital aspect of the banking system. Usually, changes in the base currency directly affect the capital of the banking system. In China, there are three main ways to change the base currency-open market operation, fiscal deposit throughput and foreign exchange holding throughput. Therefore, for the bank fund pool, the factors of water injection are the increase of foreign exchange, the investment of financial deposits and the investment of open market; The pumping factors are the reduction of foreign exchange holdings, the return of fiscal deposits and the recovery of the open market. In addition, the freezing of the statutory deposit reserve is also an important pumping factor.

The adjustment of statutory deposit reserve and open market operation are mainly determined by monetary policy, which can be analyzed from economic fundamentals and policy aspects. The change of fiscal deposits is very seasonal. Usually, the finance will suddenly spend money at the end of the year, which makes a lot of financial funds devolved to the commercial banking system. In addition, March, June, September and 65438+February are the nodes of government settlement and payment at the end of each quarter, which will also bring liquidity injection to banks; And 65438+ 10, April, May, July and 65438+ 10 are the months of financial contributions, which will bring funds out of the banking system. Therefore, we can make a rough judgment on the change of fiscal deposits according to seasonality. Foreign exchange is mainly determined by trade surplus and capital inflow. In the past, due to the rapid growth of foreign trade, foreign exchange was mainly contributed by trade surplus, but at present and even in the future, it may be necessary to consider the influence of capital flow more.

B

National debt issuance plan-analysis of national debt supply

Compared with the analysis of the demand side of national debt, the analysis of the supply side is relatively simple, because the issuance information of bonds is easy to obtain. In terms of interest rate bonds, the annual bond issuance is basically equal to the sum of fiscal deficit and debt service. The Ministry of Finance usually announces the bond issuance plan for the next year at the end of the year, while short-term quarterly issuance is generally announced at the end of the quarter. The issuance of policy financial bonds will generally be announced at the beginning of the year. The specific issuance of treasury bonds and financial bonds can be known some time before issuance, so the impact on liquidity can be estimated in advance.

For example, as early as June 5438+1October 2, 2020, the Ministry of Finance announced the issuance plan of book-entry interest-bearing government bonds, savings bonds and first-quarter government bonds in 2020. Among them, the national debt issuance plan for the first quarter is shown in table 1.

Table1timetable for issuance of national debt in the first quarter of 2020