Futures prices rise, spot prices rise. Establish long futures positions.
Futures prices fell and spot prices fell. Avoid one-way operation, arbitrage or hedging.
Futures prices rose and spot prices fell. Avoid one-way operation, arbitrage or hedging.
Futures prices fell and spot prices rose. Establish long futures positions and increase positions on dips.
When the futures price is higher than the spot price
Futures prices rise, spot prices rise. Avoid one-way operation, arbitrage or hedging.
Futures prices fell and spot prices fell. Establish a short future positions.
Futures prices rose and spot prices fell. Establish short futures positions and increase positions on rallies.
Futures prices fell and spot prices rose. Avoid one-way operation, arbitrage or hedging.
In fact, in addition to these eight directions, there are eight kinds in actual operation, so I won't go into details here.
Rationality and irrationality of contract price difference between near and far months: In the process of futures trading, contract price difference between near and far months is very important data, and the price of contract in near months can roughly reflect the spot market price. When the contract price in recent months is lower than the spot market price, the spot merchants will buy from the futures market and sell in the spot market; When the contract price in recent months is higher than the spot market price, the spot merchants will buy from the spot market and sell in the futures market. Once there is arbitrage or hedging space between the contract and the spot market in recent months, the spot merchants will actively enter the market. Therefore, investors who don't know the spot price can regard the contract price in recent months as the spot price.
Unreasonable near-to-far price difference mainly creates profit opportunities for hedging, and also provides a reliable basis for opening positions for speculative orders. Only by figuring out the price difference, the probability of profit will be great, and there are reasons to be short. Another point is to infer the price trend in the far month through the settlement price in the recent month, especially in the delivery month.