Oil crisis:

Cann't shake off the shadow of war

Judging from the trajectory of oil price increase in recent years, the new round of oil price increase is "gradual" and reached the "critical point" of contradiction in 2008. Looking at the international environment in recent years, oil prices have always been unable to get rid of the shadow of war.

Some scholars have long suggested that "2004 is the year of oil crisis", which is the second year of the Iraq war.

According to statistics, after the first anniversary of the outbreak of the Iraq war, the idea that the war will end soon gradually turned into a concern about oil supply because of the protracted signs of the war. On March 27th of that year, international crude oil futures exceeded $30 per barrel for the first time. Since then, the oil price has increased significantly under the background of the Iraq war: 465,438 USD +0.5 in 2004, 56.7 USD in 2005, 66.2 USD in 2006 and 72.5 USD in 2007 (the highest 10). On June 3rd, 2008, the international crude oil futures price broke through 100 USD for the first time.

Alan greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, implicitly expressed the oil political intention of the Iraq war in his memoirs, and thought that the two wars (Gulf War and Iraq War) were the logical connection points of the two oil crises.

Energy competition:

Speculation on the "political soil" of oil price

Liu Jiaoshou, a doctoral supervisor of Peking University Institute of International Relations and the author of "American National Strategy", believes that the spread of the new oil crisis is different from the sudden decrease of oil supply in previous times, and the supply and demand of oil in this crisis are not short of oil. In the absence of fundamental changes in the relationship between supply and demand, there is more speculation about the skyrocketing oil price this time. Under the background that countries attach importance to and compete for energy, international oil prices are very sensitive and easily "amplified" by various markets and political forces.

From a broader perspective, in addition to capital speculation on energy, countries are actually speculating on energy, and the atmosphere of energy "no smoke war" is very strong. Africa and the Arctic have attracted much attention since last year, because these two regions will be new areas for oil and gas exploration in the future.

Similarly, Iran and Venezuela have been using "energy weapons" to expand their diplomatic space since last year. Because Iran is rich in energy, the European Union, Russia, Japan, India and other countries have energy cooperation with Iran, which greatly slows down the pace of sanctions against Iran by the Security Council and complicates any attempt by the United States to isolate Iran. For Chavez in Venezuela, domestic oil and gas resources are the core capital against the United States.

Liu Jiaoshou believes that Russia's increasingly skillful use of the "energy card" is a good example of "energy diplomacy". Under the background of increasingly prominent global energy problems, Russia regards improving oil and gas production capacity and developing foreign oil and gas cooperation as an important means to expand national interests and enhance its status as a big country, so as to speed up the recovery and development of its national strength.

"Psychological expectation" pushes up oil prices

As early as 2008, some scientists believed that the next 5~ 10 years would usher in the "peak period" of oil production. Once the "peak" era of oil production comes, oil production will decline year by year.

In the long run, similar "psychological expectations" will keep oil prices at a high level due to the expected increase in global energy demand and the non-renewable and scarce energy.

Even renewable energy such as solar energy, wind energy and bioenergy can only meet a quarter of the energy demand of industrialized countries at best. Although the contradiction between supply and demand can be solved in the short term, and the oil price can fall rapidly in the short term, in the long run, the expectation of "energy gradually drying up" has always been the support point for speculative capital to make waves.

Therefore, in order to solve the rising international oil price, we must also eliminate the global concerns about the future shortage of energy production and supply and resolve the psychological expectation of "oil exhaustion". But at present, the psychological expectation of "energy shortage" obviously cannot be eliminated.

Translation: (Chinese? English)

Oil crisis:

Can't escape the shadow of war

Judging from the trajectory of oil price rise in recent years, the new round of oil "gradually" rose to a critical point when the conflict broke out in 2008. Looking at the international environment in recent years, oil prices can't get rid of the shadow of war.

Some scholars have long suggested that "2004 was the year when the oil crisis broke out", and this year is the second year when the Iraq war broke out.

Statistics show that after the first anniversary of the outbreak of the Iraq war, the war showed protracted signs, and the idea that the war would end soon gradually turned into a concern about oil supply. That is, on March 27th, international crude oil futures broke through $30 per barrel for the first time. Since then, in the context of the Iraq war, the pace of oil price increase has obviously accelerated: it was $4 1.5 in 2004, $56.7 in 2005, $66.2 in 2006 and $72.5 in 2007 (as of 10). After 2008 1 month 3, the international crude oil futures price exceeded 100 USD.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan expressed Yin Hui's political intentions towards Iraqi oil in his memoirs, and thought that two wars (Gulf War and Iraq War) were the logical connection points of the two oil crises.

Energy is used for:

"Political Soil" for Oil Price Speculation

Professor Liu, a doctoral supervisor of Peking University Institute of International Relations and the author of The National Strategy of the United States, believes that the spread of the new round of oil crisis is different from the sudden decrease of oil supply in previous times, and there is no shortage of oil supply and demand in this oil crisis. In the absence of fundamental changes in the relationship between supply and demand, the surge in oil prices is more of this speculative component. Under the background that countries attach importance to and compete for energy, international oil prices are very sensitive, so they are easily "amplified" by the market and various political forces.

If we look at a wider scope, except that capital is speculating on energy, in fact, all countries are speculating on energy, and the atmosphere of energy for "war without smoke" is very strong. Africa and the Arctic have attracted much attention since last year, because these two regions will be new territories for oil and gas exploration in the future.

Similarly, Iran and Venezuela have been using "energy weapons" to expand their diplomatic space since last year. Because Iran is rich in energy, the EU, Russia, Japan, India and other countries have energy cooperation with Iran, and the Security Council is large to curb the pace of sanctions against Iran. Any attempt by the United States to isolate Iran has become complicated. Chavez of Venezuela believes that domestic oil and gas resources are the core capital against the United States.

Liu Jiaoshou believes that more and more skillful use of the "energy card" is a good case of "energy diplomacy". Under the background of increasingly prominent global energy problems, Russia regards improving oil production capacity and developing foreign oil and gas cooperation as an important means for developing countries to benefit and enhance their status, so as to accelerate the recovery and development of their national strength.

"Psychological expectation" pushes up oil prices

As early as 2008, scientists thought that the "peak period" of oil production would come in the next 5 to 10. Once the "peak" era of oil production comes, oil production will decline year by year.

In the long run, as the global energy demand is expected to increase, and energy is non-renewable and scarce, similar to "psychological expectation", oil prices will always remain high.

Even renewable energy sources such as solar energy, wind energy and bioenergy can only meet a quarter of the energy demand of industrialized countries under the best circumstances. Although the contradiction between supply and demand can be solved in the short term, and the oil price may fall rapidly in the short term, in the long run, the expectation of "gradual exhaustion of energy" is always the strength of speculative capital to stir up trouble.

Therefore, in order to solve the rising international oil price, we must also eliminate the worries about the future shortage of global energy production and supply and resolve the psychological expectation of "oil exhaustion". However, as far as the current situation is concerned, the psychological expectation of "energy shortage" obviously cannot be eliminated.