Classification and Variety Characteristics of Apple

Factors affecting the price of apples

Apple Futures Trading, Delivery and Risk Control Regulations

First, the classification and variety characteristics of apples

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Apple tree belongs to Rosaceae, which is sweet, crisp and rich in nutrition, ranking first among the four major fruits in the world. There are more than 20 kinds of apple varieties used for economic cultivation in China, among which Red Fuji is the most representative of all the cultivated varieties in China.

At present, the planting area of Red Fuji accounts for more than 50% of the apple planting area in China, and the output accounts for about 65%-70%, which is the main planting variety in major producing provinces.

Growth characteristics

In China, the planting area of apples in Qiao culture accounts for more than 80-90%. The apples of Qiao culture generally begin to bear fruit in the fifth year, and the full fruit period is after 7-8 years. The average economic life of apples in China Qiao culture is about 30 years.

Apple trees like a cool and mild climate, with plenty of sunshine, large temperature difference between day and night during the growing period, little rainfall and suitable temperature. The maximum temperature shall not exceed 35 degrees and the minimum temperature shall not be lower than -23 degrees.

Industrial chain

China apple industry chain is short, which is divided into two branches, mainly traders and processing industries. The consumption of fresh fruit exceeds 80%, and the proportion of deep processing is less than 15%.

Planting distribution

China is the largest producer and consumer of apples in the world, and it is basically self-sufficient. Apple planting in China is widely distributed in 25 provinces, including two dominant producing areas: the Loess Plateau producing area and the Bohai Rim producing area.

The dominant producing areas in the Loess Plateau include Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan and Gansu.

The dominant producing areas around Bohai Sea include Shandong, Liaoning and Hebei.

The total output of the above seven provinces accounts for more than 90% of the country.

Migration of planting area

The planting area of apples in China is still increasing, and the producing area has begun to shift from Shandong to Shaanxi.

In recent years, the planting area in Shaanxi has been increasing, and the total output has surpassed that in Shandong. However, the average yield in Shaanxi is much lower than that in Shandong, because it takes 4-5 years for apples to enter the rich period after planting, so the planting area in Shaanxi is increasing at present, and the overall yield level is still low; However, the planting area in Shandong has decreased, and the output is still increasing.

Second, the factors that affect the price of apples

Mainly divided into: supply side, demand side and policy side.

Climate problems in the growing period

Flowering period. Due to different climates, it is generally concentrated in April-May, and some low-temperature areas may be postponed until mid-May. The duration of flowering is closely related to temperature. The weather is sunny and the temperature is suitable, usually about a week. In rainy days, this temperature can last for 2-3 weeks.

Main natural disasters: low temperature frost and rainy weather.

The fruit-setting stage is mainly concerned with pollination, and poor pollination and low fruit-setting rate will also affect the yield.

(Apples are cross-pollinated fruit trees. Except for a few varieties that can pollinate themselves, most varieties cannot pollinate themselves. Therefore, orchards need to be equipped with pollination trees, and pollination can be done by beekeeping or manual work. )

Bagging and harvesting. Attention should be paid to early defoliation, red spiders and other pests and diseases that affect the yield and quality of orchards.

Main natural disasters: hail, strong wind, drought, high temperature and rainy before mining.

Effect of Apple Yield and Inventory on Price

In 20 18, the domestic apple production and inventory dropped sharply, which affected the apple supply in the first half of 19. From May to August, domestic spot apple prices began to rise.

The yield of 20 19 recovered greatly in the second half of the year. Since September, new fruits have been listed one after another, and the spot price of apples has been falling all the way to 1 1 and returned to the normal level in previous years.

In 20 19 years, the surplus of apples was relatively large, and the inventory in 20 years rose sharply. In the early stage, merchants rushed to buy goods at high prices, and the price was artificially high. In the second half of the year, the spot price volatility of apples declined.

Apple's logistics

-At present, the main apple producing areas in China are the main distribution centers. After sorting and packaging in the place of origin, it is transported to various consumer markets in the country represented by Beishangguang.

-Shaanxi and Shandong have the largest output of apples and a wider range of sales.

-The circulation of apples mainly depends on automobile transportation.

Import and export of fresh apples

-China's exports of fresh apples far exceed imports, and it has maintained a trade surplus all the year round. The import and export volume of apples in China is relatively small compared with the production and sales volume of apples, so the impact of import and export volume on the overall market of apples is limited.

-Due to the reduction of apple production in 20 18, the import volume increased significantly in 20 19. Imported fresh fruits mainly come from New Zealand, the United States and Chile.

-during the same period, the export volume dropped sharply. Export destinations include Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

Import and export of apple juice

-Apple juice imports fluctuate greatly, and the main source countries are Cyprus, Britain and Turkey.

-Exports continued to decrease, mainly to the United States, Russia and Japan. However, the declining demand for apple juice in the United States has reduced China's export demand for apple juice.

Seasonality of demand side

Apple price fluctuates frequently and obviously, but the fluctuation law still has seasonal periodicity.

Analysis of apple substitutes

Apples are non-necessities, so we need to consider our own consumption factors, the overall fruit market and the influence of other fruits on their consumption.

Consumers' own consumption habits: In the short term, consumers' demand for fruit is less elastic, and the consumption change of apples is more influenced by its replacement of fruits. If the price of apples rises sharply, people will choose cheaper fruits, such as oranges and bananas, which will further affect the price of apples.

Fruit market as a whole: staged supply and demand will affect apple consumption.

Influence of other fruits: Watermelon is the highest fruit yield in China, among which watermelon, apple and citrus account for 57% of China's fruit output. Citrus and pear have a great influence on apple consumption in the market close to apple.

Policies Affecting Apple Industry and Price

First, the overall macroeconomic policy; Second, agricultural industry support policies and policy planning.

For example, subsidies, exemptions and other policies for fruit farmers, the introduction of generally favorable agricultural policies will stimulate the enthusiasm of fruit farmers to produce apples, increase production intensity, and thus increase supply; Although the price will drop, the interests of fruit farmers can still be protected to a certain extent because of subsidies and reductions.

Three. Apple futures contracts and rules

On July 14, 2020, Zhengshang Institute substantially adjusted the delivery rules of Apple futures contract transactions.

For details, see: Announcement on Issuing the Revision of Apple Futures Contract Rules.

Trading rules of fresh apple futures contract

Modification of trading rules:

1, delivery month:

According to sales, inventory and risk management, delete July and add April.

2. The last delivery date of the car board:

Adjust the final delivery date to the next month 10- optimize the vehicle licensing process and shorten the required time.

(The amendment to cancel the July contract of Apple Futures will be implemented after the delisting of the 2007 contract of Apple Futures, and other amendments will be implemented from the 2 1 10 contract of Apple Futures).

Detailed delivery rules of fresh apple futures contract

The delivery rules of Apple Futures have also undergone major adjustments:

1. Reduce the delivery unit from 20 tons to 10 tons-consistent with the trading unit, which is convenient for investors to remember.

2. Adjust the quality tolerance of benchmark delivery products, and modify the indicators of insect injury, abrasion, crush injury and stab wound-the overall direction is to relax, reduce the delivery risk, be close to the mid-range supply in Shang Chao, be close to the spot reality, and facilitate the participation of more industrial entities.

3. Adjust the hardness standards of incoming and outgoing apples-unify the hardness requirements of incoming apples, reduce the hardness requirements of outgoing apples and vehicle boards, and reduce the delivery risk.

Storage hardness: The storage hardness of apples shall not be less than 7kgf/cm2.

Hardness: the hardness of apples delivered from June 10 to February 10 (inclusive) shall not be less than 6.2kgf/cm2; The hardness of apples leaving the warehouse at other times shall not be less than 6kgf/cm2.

The car (ship) board shall be deemed as delivered from the warehouse.

4. Adjust the requirements of alternative delivery and increase the premium.

5. Apple warehousing inspection fees shall be borne by the seller and the owner.

Delivery warehouse

Apple delivery is located in the main producing areas, including Shaanxi, Shandong, Henan and Gansu provinces.

Among them, Shaanxi is the benchmark delivery place, and the premiums of Shandong, Gansu and Henan are zero.

Delivery to the warehouse (16)

Vehicle and Vessel License Distribution Service Organization (16)

Apple Futures Risk Control Management

Price limit

The price of Apple futures contracts is limited to 5% of the settlement price of the previous trading day.

Margin system

The trading margin standard of Apple futures contract is implemented in three stages.

Position restriction system

With reference to the existing variety position limit system, Apple Futures implements gradient position limit for non-futures company members and customers. For enterprises with large annual trading volume, they can expand their positions by applying for hedging positions to meet their own hedging needs.