In 20 10, the growth rate of industrial production continued to accelerate, and the recovery momentum gradually increased (Figure 25). The industrial added value was 65.438+06003 billion yuan, an increase of 654.38+02. 1% over the previous year. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.7% over the previous year, and the growth rate was 4.7 percentage points faster than that of the previous year. Among them, state-owned and state-holding enterprises grew by 13.7%, collective enterprises by 9.4%, joint-stock enterprises by 16.8%, and enterprises invested by Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan by 14.5%. In terms of light and heavy industries, the growth of heavy industry is 16.5%, and that of light industry is 13.6%. On a quarterly basis, it increased by 19.6% in the first quarter, 15.9% in the second quarter, 13.5% in the third quarter and 13.3% in the fourth quarter (Figure 26). Achieve a substantial increase in profits.

Fig. 25 Monthly changes in the growth rate of added value of industrial enterprises above designated size

Fig. 26 Quarterly change of growth rate of industrial added value above designated size

The production of 20 10 mineral products continued to maintain the growth momentum in 2009, and the output of major energy sources, metals and nonmetals generally increased significantly over the previous year. Generally speaking, the growth rate of major mineral products is higher than that of last year, except that the output of metallurgical products and cement decreased slightly compared with the same period of last year, most of them showed an accelerated growth trend.

(2) The output of energy and mineral products increased rapidly.

In 20 10, China's total primary energy production reached 2.99 billion tons of standard coal, up 8.7% year-on-year, ranking first in the world. The total energy consumption in the whole year was 3.25 billion tons of standard coal, an increase of 5.9% over the previous year. China's energy self-sufficiency rate is 92%, of which 70% is still coal. One of the key points of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" is to reduce carbon emissions and increase the proportion of non-fossil energy. At present, the National Development and Reform Commission is studying specific measures to control the total energy consumption, with the focus on controlling the excessive growth of the total coal consumption and curbing unreasonable consumption.

In 20 10, the supply and demand of the national coal market was strong, and the raw coal output was about 3.24 billion tons, up 8.9% year-on-year, ranking first in the world for many years (Figure 27). The total coal output of 13 large coal bases in Mengdong, Shendong, northern Shaanxi, western Shandong, Henan, Yunnan-Guizhou and Huaibei reached 2.8 billion tons, accounting for 87.5% of the national coal output. Coal consumption was 31.800 million tons, up by 5.3% over the previous year. 20 10 The positive factors influencing the development of China coal market are as follows: ① The trend of world economic recovery is basically established. Since June 65438+10, 2009, the world's electricity and steel output has increased slightly. With the economic recovery, the world demand for crude oil and coal will continue to increase. China's economy is picking up. This year, under the influence of the country's proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, the overall economy will continue to develop well, and coal consumption industries such as electricity, steel, chemicals and building materials will continue to develop rapidly, supporting the steady growth of domestic coal market demand. Since the beginning of this year, China's coal inventory structure has changed significantly. By the end of June 1 1, the coal inventory of the whole society was 2180,000 tons, an increase of 48 million tons or 28.23% over the beginning of the year. Among them, the inventory of coal enterprises was 40 million tons, down by 30%; Key power generation enterprises stored 59.58 million tons of coal, increasing by 177.5%, and the average consumption days increased from the lowest 8 days at the beginning of the year to 17 days; The coal inventory of major coal transportation ports was 22.34 million tons, up 55.6% year-on-year.

Fig. 27 Comparison of raw coal production in the same period

The national power generation was 4,206.54 billion kWh, up 13.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 6.9 percentage points faster than that of the previous year. Among them, thermal power increased by 1 1.6%, with an increase of 1.4 percentage points; Hydropower increased by 17. 1%, a decrease of 3.3% over the previous year.

The supply of crude oil accelerated. The national crude oil output exceeded 200 million tons, reaching 203 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 7. 1%, the highest growth rate in 25 years (Figure 28). Although domestic crude oil production has increased greatly, it still cannot keep up with the growth of crude oil consumption. In 20 10, the crude oil consumption increased by 12.9% compared with the previous year. The natural gas output was 96.76 billion cubic meters, up 13.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 7.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. Natural gas consumption104.84 billion cubic meters, an increase of 18.2% over the previous year.

Fig. 28 Comparison of crude oil production in the same period

(3) The output of metal mineral products keeps growing rapidly.

Iron ore production accelerated. Iron ore output 1.72 billion tons (Figure 29), up 2 1.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous year, breaking through the 1 100 million tons mark. The main reason for the continuous growth of domestic iron ore production is the rising cost of imported ore. However, due to the low grade of domestic iron ore and the requirements of domestic blast furnaces for iron ore grade, there is limited room for sustained growth of domestic iron ore production.

Fig. 29 Comparison of iron ore production in the same period

The national crude steel output was 627 million tons, up 9.6% year-on-year (Figure 30), and the growth rate dropped by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, accounting for 44.3% of the global crude steel output. The output of steel products was 798 million tons, up by 14.9% over the previous year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage point. Steel consumption was 770 million tons, up 12.4% over the previous year. The output of pig iron was 590 million tons, up 7.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 8.5 percentage points.

Fig. 30 Comparison of crude steel output in the same period

Figure 3 1 Comparison of output of ten kinds of non-ferrous metals in the same period

The output of ten kinds of non-ferrous metals has increased substantially. The output of ten non-ferrous metals was 30.926 million tons, up 16.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1 1.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous year (Figure 3 1). Among them, the output of refined copper was 4.573 million tons, up by 10.6% year-on-year (Figure 32), and the growth rate was 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. The consumption of refined copper was 7.92 million tons, an increase of 5.1%over the previous year; The lead output was 2193,000 tons, up by 32.3%, up by 15.9 percentage points over the previous year. The output of zinc was 3.928 million tons, an increase of 20.4% over the previous year, and the growth rate was 8.8 percentage points higher than that of the previous year.

Fig. 32 Comparison of refined copper production in the same period

The output of electrolytic aluminum15.65 million tons (Figure 33) increased by 2 1.4% year-on-year, and decreased by 1.5% year-on-year. The output of alumina is 28.939 million tons (Figure 34), up 265.438 0.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate is 65.438 08.3 percentage points higher than that of the previous year.

Fig. 33 Comparison of electrolytic aluminum production in the same period

Fig. 34 Comparison of alumina production in the same period

The output of tungsten concentrate (converted into 65% tungsten trioxide, the same below) is about130,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 20.5% (Figure 35), which is 5.8 percentage points higher than that of the previous year and exceeds 62.5% of the total control index of tungsten concentrate mining in the whole year. The total control of tungsten concentrate needs to be further strengthened.

Fig. 35 Comparison of tungsten concentrate output in the same period

According to the data of China Gold Association, the national gold output reached a record high in 20 10, ranking first in the world for four consecutive years. The national * * * produced 340.88 tons of gold, up 26.9 tons or 8.57% over the previous year (Figure 36). Under the background of economic recovery and inflation, in order to avoid risks and resist inflation, spot and futures gold trading in China gold market is booming. The cumulative gold trading volume of Shanghai Gold Exchange was 6,046.06 tons, up 3 1. 1% year-on-year, and the turnover was 1.6 1 trillion yuan, up 34.2% year-on-year. The number of gold futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 679.4 1000 lots, down 0.3% year-on-year, and the turnover was 1.83 trillion yuan, up 19.8% year-on-year.

Fig. 36 Comparison of gold production in the same period

(4) The output of nonmetallic mineral products continues to increase.

The growth rate of cement production slowed down. National cement output 1.88 billion tons (Figure 37), up 14.4% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year. Cement consumption was 1.86 billion tons, up 14.5% year-on-year.

Fig. 37 Comparison of cement output in the same period

Potash production continues to rise. The national potash production (equivalent to K2O100%) was 3.968 million tons (Figure 38), up 12.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1 1.9 percentage points lower than the previous year.

Fig. 38 Comparison of potash fertilizer production in the same period

Column 12 20 10 potash market events

20 10 potash fertilizer market is increasingly fierce, and global mining giants compete for potash resources by means of mergers and acquisitions.

1. BHP Billiton Company laid out "Potash Empire". 20 10 1 At the end of the year, BHP Billiton acquired Canada's second largest potash mine resource.

20 10, 1 1, BHP Billiton made an offer of $0/30 per share to Potash Corp. of Canada, which was rejected by the company's board of directors on the grounds of "seriously underestimating its company value". /kloc-In August, 2008, BHP Billiton bypassed the board of directors of Potash Corporation of Canada and launched a hostile takeover offer, directly offering its shareholders the highest purchase price of $38.6 billion in Canadian history. 165438+1On October 3rd, Tony Clemente, Minister of Industry of Canada, announced that the Canadian government did not agree to BHP Billiton's acquisition plan for potash corp in Saskatchewan, Canada. 165438+1In mid-October, BHP Billiton announced its withdrawal from the acquisition war of Potash Corporation of Canada.

2. Vale has entered the field of potash fertilizer on a large scale. 20 10 acquired the fertilizer mineral business of Bunge Limited, the world's largest oilseed processor, in Brazil for $3.8 billion in cash.

3. Russia's two major potash giants seek to merge. Russia's two major potash giants Uralkali and Silvinit are also seeking to merge, and the combined production capacity will be110.5 million tons/year, second only to Canadian potash. The actual controller of Russia's two potash giants is Russian metal oligarch Suleiman kerimov. It is reported that the transaction was supported by the Russian government. In addition, Suleiman kerimov is negotiating with Belaruskali, the third largest potash producer in the world, and Phosagro, the largest Russian phosphate fertilizer producer. It is reported that after the change of ownership of Silivinite Potash Company, it is likely to join the Russian Potash Company BPC (composed of Ural Potash Company and Belarusian Potash Company). By then, the global export share of BPC potash fertilizer will increase from 29% to 44%, which may give BPC greater bargaining power.

With the acceleration of global merger and acquisition of potash resources, the production concentration of potash resources has been further improved. At present, potash producers are mainly composed of two organizations, namely BPC and Canpotex. BPC is an export enterprise composed of Russian potash producer Ural Potash Company and Belarusian Potash Company, and its output accounts for about one third of the world's total potash production. Canpotex, on the other hand, is a sales alliance composed of Canadian Potash Company, Canadian Plus Company (Agrium) and American Mosaic Company, which is responsible for the unified price negotiation and export contract of potash sales outside North America, and its output also accounts for about one third of the world. Therefore, Canpotex and BPC control two-thirds of the global potash production.

If this successful acquisition of Potash Corporation of Canada, this existing balance will be broken. This means that the global mining monopoly giants will start to monopolize the global potash market like iron ore, and by changing the relationship between supply and demand, push up the price of potash fertilizer and obtain excess profits.