Although potash fertilizer is very important to agriculture, it is not used every year. At present, potash fertilizer in China is not as popular as urea and phosphate fertilizer. If potash fertilizer is used this year, it can be stopped in the next 3-4 years. This is not like the relationship between cars and oil. As long as you drive, you must refuel in time.
At present, the country encourages straw to be returned to the field, and the potassium ions absorbed by crops are generally left in the straw. Supplementary application of organic fertilizer will supplement some potassium for the soil, thus reducing the use of potassium fertilizer. Therefore, the application of potash fertilizer in China will not increase significantly in the future. When the price of potash fertilizer remains high, it is more difficult to increase the dosage of potash fertilizer.
According to the analysis report of the Agricultural Committee of the International Fertilizer Industry Association, the global consumption of potash fertilizer in 2009 was 45 million tons. With the current global production capacity of 70 million tons, there is an overall surplus of potash fertilizer.
If the annual growth rate is 3%, the global demand for potash fertilizer may reach about 60 million tons by 2020. At that time, assuming that BHP Billiton acquires potash fertilizer, the production capacity will be increased from 6,543,805 tons to 27 million tons, and enterprises in other countries such as Russia, Belarus, Canada and China will also expand their production at the same time. The global potash production capacity will reach 65.438+0.2 billion tons in about 654.38+00 years, and the potash surplus rate will also increase to 654.38+000%. Moreover, it is impossible to monopolize the global potash market by adding potassium.
Therefore, if China enterprises invest huge sums of money to buy potash fertilizer, they will not only gain less, but also bear considerable risks in the future.
The import demand for potassium deficiency in China has become a "handle"
According to the 2000 China State of the Environment Bulletin, China is one of the countries that are most dependent on the consumption and import of potash fertilizer, especially potash fertilizer, and the consumption of potash fertilizer accounts for about 20% of the world's total consumption. As a large agricultural country, China's potassium-deficient cultivated land accounts for 56% of the total cultivated land area, but most of the potassium fertilizer needs to be imported. At present, the annual import of potash fertilizer has reached120,000 tons. The contradiction between the insufficient supply of potash fertilizer and the widespread lack of potash in cultivated land is very prominent.
Due to the lack of effective potassium resources in China, domestic potash production has been unsatisfactory. In 2000 1 year, the domestic potash production exceeded110,000 tons, while in 2007, the domestic potash production was only 2.54 million tons, and the domestic dependence on imported potash has not been completely shaken off. Although there are 700-800 million tons of potassium resources in Qinghai and Lop Nur, Xinjiang, they can only be used for 20 or 30 years, and the transportation and infrastructure in these places are extremely underdeveloped, which limits the growth of potash production in China.
It is difficult for China to produce more than 3.5 million tons of potash fertilizer this year. It is optimistically estimated that by 2020, all planned projects will be put into production, and the self-sufficiency rate of potash fertilizer will reach 50%, but it is a long-term trend for domestic potash fertilizer to rely on imports. China has low self-production and great demand. The high dependence on the demand for imported potash fertilizer has become the consensus of the world's potash supply giants, which also makes China enterprises often get into trouble in the negotiation of potash import price. At the end of 2005, Sino-foreign negotiations on potash fertilizer officially started. Its ups and downs are no less than iron ore price negotiations. Under the unified organization of the Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Minmetals Chemical Industry, major domestic fertilizer enterprises have established a negotiation mechanism for potash import, including more than ten state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises, mainly represented by China Agriculture, Sinochem and PetroChina. In 2008, CNOOC replaced the negotiating seat of PetroChina. This year, the results of the negotiations are not satisfactory. The reporter learned that according to the import contract reached in 2008, the FOB price of potassium chloride was as high as $565/ton, an increase of about 240%. The increase is much greater than that of China's commodity iron ore, which is also dependent on imports-the highest increase in the latter price negotiation is less than 100%.
The tug-of-war to buy Canadian potash fertilizer has obviously given China more room for imagination in the next stage of potash import price negotiation. It is worth noting that once BHP Billiton or China Capital successfully enters potash fertilizer, it will have a completely different impact on the international potash price trend. Wu Ying, an analyst at Ping An Chemical, said: "If China Capital successfully acquires potash fertilizer, the dependence of importing countries will be reduced, which may lead to a decline in potash fertilizer prices. If BHP Billiton's acquisition is successful, the concentration of the international potash market will intensify and the price of potash may rise. " However, Li Wei believes that the variable is the impact on the international potash pricing mechanism once BHP Billiton is successfully acquired. If BHP Billiton does carry out what its management said, that is, to change the previous mode of suppliers determining prices, but let the market set prices, it may not be a bad thing for China enterprises to some extent.
If BHP Billiton's management can fulfill their acquisition promise, it is possible to reduce the price to $230/ton within a year or so. But mastering the upstream resources and controlling the right to speak is the safest way, especially in the long run, the price of potash fertilizer is bound to rise. Self-produced, imported and overseas. To break the dilemma, we must master the upstream resources, which has long been the consensus of China's potash industry. We should pay attention to international mergers and acquisitions, but from our own point of view, we should still lay out domestic, imported and overseas1:1. Actively develop new potassium salt resources, maintain a certain import, and at the same time exploit overseas. Although China should be wary of BHP Billiton's acquisition of Potash Company and its impact, it is precisely because the potash industry in China has established the industrial structure of 1: 1: 1 for a long time that potash fertilizer in China is not completely controlled by people, as the outside world fears.
In terms of self-produced potash fertilizer, there are mainly two domestic enterprises. One is Salt Lake Group, in which Qinghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and Sinochem Group are the first and second largest shareholders respectively, accounting for 80% to 90% of domestic output. The other is Xinjiang Lop Nur Potash Company, SDIC is the largest shareholder, and it has begun to occupy a certain market share.
The potash resources currently being developed in Xinjiang, Qinghai and Sichuan are expected to double the existing potash production capacity in China. It is understood that in 2009, the first phase of the 6.5438+200,000 tons/year potassium sulfate project of Xinjiang Lop Nur Potash Company was completed and put into operation, which increased the total potash production capacity of China to more than 4.5 million tons. At present, its second phase project, 6,543.8+0.8 million tons/year potash fertilizer project, is under construction, which will form a potash fertilizer production capacity of 3 million tons/year. By then, the company will become the world's largest producer of potassium sulfate. At present, citic guoan, Sichuan Feng Hong, Yatai Group and Bindi Potash Project are under construction and planning, with a cumulative annual production capacity of 8 million tons. However, although there will be more domestic potash production capacity in the future, most of it will be put into production after 20 13. Therefore, the monopoly pattern of the international potash market will not change in the future.
In the layout of a chess game of potash fertilizer in China, more "back moves" are needed, and enterprises need to speed up the pace of "going out". According to relevant sources from the Agricultural Production Information Bureau of the All-China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives, at present, domestic enterprises have achieved initial results in mining potash mines abroad, and Chinese enterprises have five projects in Laos, of which 1 has produced output; Canada has two projects; There are two projects in Congo, of which 1 is still under negotiation. In addition to purchasing resources, domestic enterprises "go global" also take the form of purchasing equity to share risks with foreign enterprises.
Recently, the effect of "going out" of domestic potash enterprises is not significant, and it will take some time to really assume the role of a mainstay. Enterprises "going out" face various problems. For example, although there are mines in Africa, the infrastructure is poor, and how to transport them after mining is a problem. Even in a country like Canada, enterprises may not be able to gain real control, because the relevant transportation routes are controlled by a few large enterprises.