Historically, what happened to the market in the 43 consecutive trading days when the turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion?
From May 8, 20 15 to July 8, 20 15, the trading between the two cities was active, with the turnover exceeding one trillion for 43 consecutive trading days. During this period, the Shanghai Composite Index once stood at a high of 5 178 in June 12 and 20 15. Although this is not the highest point in the history of Shanghai Composite Index, it is also the highest point since 2007.
During this period, the Shanghai Composite Index accelerated to a high level, followed by a sharp correction. Within a short period of 18 trading days from June 15, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 5 174 to 3,373, with a range of 34.8%. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index dropped from 18 182 to 10850, with an amplitude of 40.3%. During this period, several rounds of leveraged funds were exposed, and the stock prices of individual stocks were cut in a large area. 1more than 400 listed companies suspended trading to avoid risks. Just one month later, the market ushered in the second round of diving, and the Shanghai Composite Index plunged 1 000 points in seven trading days.
Guo Jun Strategy Team Resumes 20 15 Quotes: At the end of 20 14, the central bank cut interest rates to drive the market to start, and the Shanghai Composite Index stood firm at 3,200 points. Subsequently, several rounds of RRR reduction, industrial policy and system reform took turns, resulting in a sharp drop in risk-free interest rates and a sharp increase in risk appetite, which promoted the market upward. After the staged correction in May, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated upward again, and it is not uncommon for thousands of stocks to fall. June finally ushered in a bull market peak of 5 178. However, the bull and bear are of the same origin, and the extreme deduction of A shares is behind the extreme deterioration of the micro-transaction structure, which makes the market extremely sensitive to the over-the-counter fund-raising inventory of the CSRC, and the market has turned sharply. Thousands of shares have fallen, and they are sorrowful. Securities, Huijin and other funds entered the market. In August, the RMB exchange rate reform once again led to a stock market decline, and finally the "double decline" of the central bank was able to stop the downward trend.
At the beginning of 20021,the micro-transaction structure deteriorated, which caused the A-share price to plummet again, and the gross index dropped sharply. At that time, some institutions once again mentioned the enlightenment brought by the 20 15 market.
Zhang Xia, China Merchants Securities, said that the market characteristics this year are indeed similar to those in 20 15. On the one hand, the growth rate of social financing is low, and the export in the first half of the year is acceptable, which is a partial industrial trend. On the other hand, it is gradually entering the state of "asset-like shortage", and the ways of residents' funds flowing into the stock market are mainly public offering and private offering products.
However, not every time the two cities are active in trading, it is accompanied by a disaster. From July 2 to August 2020 12, the market was active again. In the past 30 trading days, the turnover of the two cities almost exceeded one trillion.
At that time, the Shanghai Composite Index also experienced an accelerated upward trend, but after peaking in the short term, it maintained a volatile upward trend in the medium term.
Specific analysis of specific problems, from the details, the market in 20 15 is quite different from that in 2020 and 20021year. In the market at that time, the acceleration of new share issuance, the rapid withdrawal of bookmakers and leveraged funds, and lax supervision also gave short sellers of stock index futures an opportunity. After this round of stock market crash, relevant departments have issued relevant regulatory policies.
CICC does not think that the continuous turnover of trillions means that the market is hot, and puts forward a new idea: the turnover of trillions may become the new normal of A shares. It said that with the expansion of the market value of free circulation in the market, the trading volume at a relatively high historical level may last for a long time. The theoretical turnover calculated by the regression average of 2.57% turnover rate corresponding to the free market value of A shares in history has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, which is different from 20 15 years.
Guotai Junan Strategy Team said that considering a series of factors such as performance trend, current market value, support for the real economy, past industry and style performance, the probability of A-share ups and downs is still low, and the market is still structural.