The basic factors affecting price changes can be summarized as follows:
1, commodity supply and demand situation analysis
The supply and demand of commodities have an important influence on commodity futures prices. Basic factor analysis mainly analyzes the relationship between supply and demand. The change of commodity supply and demand and the change of price influence and restrict each other. Commodity prices are inversely proportional to supply, supply increases and prices fall; Supply decreases and prices rise. Commodity prices are directly proportional to demand, demand increases and prices rise; Demand decreases and prices fall. With other factors unchanged, any change in the relationship between supply and demand may affect the change of commodity prices. On the one hand, the change of commodity prices is influenced by the change of supply and demand; On the other hand, changes in commodity prices have an impact on supply and demand in turn: prices rise, supply increases, and demand decreases; As prices fall, supply decreases and demand increases. This interaction and causal relationship between supply and demand and price makes the analysis of commodity supply and demand more complicated, that is, not only the influence of supply and demand changes on prices, but also the reaction of price changes on supply and demand should be considered.
Because there is a long time difference between futures trading and physical delivery, and futures trading can be carried out through short selling, the influence of changes in commodity supply and demand on futures market prices will be greatly affected by changes in traders' psychological expectations, which will lead to the general trend of repeated and frequent fluctuations in futures market prices.
1) analysis of futures commodity supply
The analysis of futures commodity supply mainly examines the composition and changes of commodity supply in this period. The commodity supply in this period mainly consists of three parts: initial inventory, current output and import.
A. Opening inventory
Initial inventory refers to the physical quantity of goods accumulated in the previous year or quarter for the society to continue to consume. According to the identity of the inventory owner, it can be divided into producer-supplier inventory, dealer inventory and government reserve. The first two kinds of stocks can be listed and supplied at any time according to price changes, which can be regarded as the actual components of market commodity supply. The purpose of government reserves is to reserve for the overall interests of the whole society, and it will not be easily put on the market because of general price changes. However, when the market supply is seriously insufficient and prices soar, the government may use it to stabilize prices, which will have an important impact on market supply.
B. Output current
Current output refers to the commodity output this year or this quarter. It is the main body of commodity supply in the market, and its influencing factors are also very complicated. In the short term, it is mainly restricted by production capacity, resources and natural conditions, production costs and government policies. The influencing factors of different commodity production may vary greatly, so it is necessary to analyze the influencing factors of specific commodity production in order to grasp its possible changes more accurately.
C. Imports during this period
The import volume in this period is a supplement to domestic production, and usually changes with the change of supply and demand balance in the domestic market. At the same time, the import volume will also be affected by international and domestic market spreads, exchange rates, national import and export policies and international political factors. Since 1995, China has changed from a soybean exporter to a net importer, and the import volume directly affects the change of Dalian soybean futures price. Import data can be obtained from monthly customs statistics, and the main sources of import forecast data are: weekly export sales report released by the US Department of Agriculture on Thursday, and reports of relevant institutions on soybean export shipments in South America. Import forecast data has a great influence on Dalian soybean futures price, but it is difficult to reflect the real import quantity because traders sell back or transfer to other countries in the international market.
2) Demand analysis of futures commodities
Commodity market demand refers to the quantity of a commodity that the buyer is willing and able to buy at a certain time, place and price. It usually consists of domestic consumption, export volume and ending balance.
A. Domestic consumption
Domestic consumption is mainly influenced by the income level or purchasing power of consumers, the number of consumers, the change of consumption structure, the discovery of new uses of goods, the price of substitutes and the convenience of obtaining them. These factors often have a greater impact on the demand and price of futures commodities than the spot market.
The concrete analysis of soybean shows that the consumption of soybean is relatively stable and has little influence on the price. The urgent demand of soybean changes greatly, which has a great influence on the price. After soybean is squeezed, the market demand of soybean oil and soybean meal products is uncertain and there are many influencing factors. As a kind of vegetable oil, soybean oil is affected by the supply and demand factors of rapeseed oil, cottonseed oil, palm oil, coconut oil, peanut oil and sunflower oil. The main by-product (more than 80%) after soybean pressing is soybean meal. Soybean meal is one of the main ingredients in feed, which is closely related to the prosperity of aquaculture. Soybean meal demand has a great influence on soybean futures prices.
B, the international market demand analysis
Major soybean importing countries: EU, Japan, China, Southeast Asian countries and regions. The soybean imports of the European Union and Japan are relatively stable, while those of China and Southeast Asian countries change greatly. Although the stable import volume is large, it has little influence on the international market price, and the unstable import volume is small, but it has great influence on the international market price.
For example, 1995 and 1996, the rapid growth of soybean demand in China and Southeast Asian countries led to the rise of Chicago soybean futures prices. The United States Department of Agriculture publishes the Forecast of World Agricultural Products Supply and Demand at the beginning and middle of each month to analyze and forecast the demand of major importing countries. The USDA also publishes Oilseeds: World Market and Trade in the middle of each month, which is more professional and detailed as a sub-report of the previous report, including rapeseed, cottonseed, peanuts and sunflower seeds.
C. export volume
The export volume is the quantity of goods produced and processed in China that are sold to foreign markets, and it is one of the important factors that affect the domestic total demand. To analyze its changes, we should comprehensively consider the changes of various factors affecting exports, such as the supply and demand situation in the international and domestic markets, the price comparison between domestic sales and export, the changes of domestic export policies and import policies of importing countries, and the changes of tariffs and exchange rates. For example, China is one of the corn exporting countries, and the corn export volume is an important factor affecting the corn futures price.
D. Ending balance
On the one hand, it is an integral part of commodity demand and a necessary condition for normal social reproduction; On the other hand, it plays a role in balancing short-term supply and demand to a certain extent. When the supply of goods in this period is in short supply, the ending balance will decrease; Otherwise it will increase. Therefore, by analyzing the actual changes of inventory at the end of the current period, we can see the supply and demand of commodities in this period and its influence on the supply and demand and price of commodities in the next period from the perspective of physical movement of commodities. Taking soybeans as an example, the US Department of Agriculture publishes the stocks of soybeans in various countries in the monthly Forecast of World Agricultural Products Supply and Demand. The stocks of major producing countries such as the United States, Brazil and Argentina have an impact on the long-term trend of Chicago soybean futures prices, and there is a great correlation. There is no authoritative report on domestic soybean stocks. Due to the small scale of domestic farmers, it is difficult to accurately count the grain storage situation.
The basic factor analysis method holds that in order to better grasp the favorable opportunity of futures trading, traders should use the above factors to qualitatively analyze the trend of commodity futures prices, at the same time, they should also use statistical techniques to make quantitative analysis, improve the accuracy of forecasting, and even systematically describe the mutual constraints and interactions between various supply and demand factors that affect price changes by establishing economic models. The application of computer makes the quantitative analysis in basic factor analysis more comprehensive and accurate. Using econometric model to analyze the restrictive relationship between economic factors has become one of the important forecasting methods of basic factor analysis.
2. Economic fluctuation cycle
Commodity market fluctuation is usually closely related to economic fluctuation cycle. Futures prices are no exception. As the futures market is an open market closely linked with the international market, the price fluctuation of the futures market is not only affected by the domestic economic fluctuation cycle, but also by the prosperity of the world economy.
The economic cycle generally consists of four stages: recovery, prosperity, recession and depression.
At the beginning of the recovery phase, it was the lowest point of the last cycle, and both output and price were at the lowest level. With the recovery of economy, the recovery of production and the growth of demand, prices have also begun to pick up gradually.
The boom stage is the peak stage of the economic cycle. Because the continuous expansion of investment demand and consumer demand exceeds the growth of output, the stimulus price rises rapidly to a higher level.
The recession stage appeared after the peak of the economic cycle, and the economy began to decline. Due to shrinking demand, supply greatly exceeded demand, and prices fell rapidly.
Depression is the bottom of the economic cycle. Both supply and demand are at a low level, and prices have stopped falling and are at a low level. During the evolution of the whole economic cycle, the price fluctuation lags behind the economic fluctuation slightly.
These are the general characteristics of the four stages of the economic cycle. Economic cycles in different countries and different periods may have different characteristics. For example, before the 1960s, the economic cycle in western countries was characterized by large fluctuations in output and prices in the same direction. In the early 1970s, western countries entered the so-called "stagflation" period, and their economies fell sharply, but prices still rose sharply, and economic stagnation and serious inflation coexisted. However, since the 1980s and 1990s, the economic fluctuation has been greatly reduced, and the overall price level has only gone up but not down. In recession and depression, it is only the rate of price increase rather than the absolute price level. Of course, this kind of only rising but not falling refers to the general price level rather than the prices of all specific commodities, which are still rising and falling. After entering the mid-1990s, some emerging market economies, such as South Korea and Southeast Asian countries, were hit by the financial crisis, which led to a sharp drop in the international market prices of some commodities. However, the global economy has not fallen into a full-scale crisis, and the economies of European and American countries have continued to improve. Therefore, careful observation and analysis of the stages and characteristics of the economic cycle is of great significance for correctly grasping the price trend of the futures market.
The stage of economic cycle can be judged by some main economic indicators, such as GNP growth rate, unemployment rate, price index, exchange rate and so on. These are all things that futures traders should pay close attention to.
3. Financial and monetary factors
Commodity futures trading is closely related to financial and money markets. The fluctuation of interest rate and exchange rate directly affects the price change of commodity futures.
1) interest rate
For speculative futures traders, margin interest is the main cost of their trading. Therefore, the fluctuation of interest rate will directly affect the transaction cost of futures traders. If interest rates rise, transaction costs rise and speculators' risks increase, futures speculation will be reduced and trading volume will be reduced. If the interest rate is lowered, the cost of futures speculation will be reduced and the trading volume will be enlarged.
Interest rate adjustment is a macro-control means for the government to tighten or expand the economy. The change of interest rate has great influence on financial derivatives trading, but little influence on commodity futures. For example, since 1994, in order to curb inflation, the People's Bank of China has substantially raised interest rates and increased the subsidy rate for maintaining the value of medium and long-term deposits and government bonds, which has led to the soaring price of government bond futures. On May 1995, the State Council ordered the trading of treasury bonds futures to be suspended.
2) exchange rate
The futures market is an open market, and futures prices are closely related to commodity prices in the international market. The comparison of commodity prices in the international market inevitably involves the exchange rate of currencies in various countries, that is, the ratio of domestic currency to foreign currency. When the local currency depreciates, even if the price of foreign goods remains unchanged, the price of foreign goods expressed in local currency will rise, and vice versa. Therefore, the fluctuation of exchange rate will inevitably affect the corresponding futures price changes.
According to estimates, the depreciation of the US dollar against the Japanese yen 10% will reduce the price of soybean imported by Tokyo Grain Exchange in Japan by about 10%. Similarly, if the RMB depreciates against the US dollar, the domestic soybean futures price will also rise. The monetary policies of major exporting countries, such as Brazil's sharp depreciation of its national currency, the real, in 1998, greatly enhanced the export competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans. Relatively speaking, the increase in soybean supply has had a negative impact on Chicago soybean futures prices. The monetary policies of major importing countries such as South Korea and ASEAN countries depreciated sharply in 1997, and the demand for soybeans and soybean meal shrank sharply, which led to a decline in world soybean prices. This fully illustrates the impact of exchange rate changes on related futures prices. Therefore, futures traders must pay close attention to the exchange rate changes of the commodities they trade.
4. Political and policy factors
Futures market prices are very sensitive to changes in international and domestic political climate and related policies. Political factors mainly refer to the international and domestic political situation, the outbreak of international political events and the resulting changes in the pattern of international relations, the establishment of various international economic and trade organizations and the conclusion of relevant commodity agreements, and various policies and measures adopted by the government for economic intervention. These factors will cause fluctuations in the futures market price. For example,1October 4th1980,65438+The United States decided to ban17 million tons of grain from the former Soviet Union, which caused the Chicago Stock Exchange to close for two days, and there were many daily limit after the market opened on the 9th.
1)
Internationally, the agricultural policies of major soybean producing countries have a great influence on soybean futures prices. For example, in 1996, the US Congress approved the new federal agricultural improvement and reform bill of 1996, which made the planting area of American farmers soar by 10% in 197, resulting in a sharp drop in the international market price of soybeans. Sometimes, for their own interests and political needs, governments make or take some policies and measures, which will have different degrees of impact on commodity futures prices. For example, the United States and European countries with the same economy have stipulated protective measures for agricultural production.
Changes in domestic agricultural policies will also have an impact on the futures prices of agricultural products, such as the grain reform policy of 1998, which implements price protection policies for major agricultural products such as rice, corn and wheat, while soybeans are not protected. Soybean price changes with the change of market supply and demand, which provides a broad stage for soybean futures trading. The protective price policy of agricultural products also affects farmers' planting behavior. The investigation of planting intention of National Agricultural Transfer Team 1999 shows that the planting area of corn has increased by1200,000 hectares, and the bean crops have decreased by11000,000 hectares. With the decrease of planting area and the decrease of commodity supply, the price of agricultural products will rise.
2) the influence of trade policy
Trade policy will directly affect the availability of goods, especially the future price of goods. For example, whether China will join the WTO, and the Sino-US agricultural trade agreement signed with the US government during Premier Zhu's visit to the US in May, 1999, etc. All have an impact on Dalian soybean futures prices. 1Since July 1999, the state has imposed value-added tax on imported soybean meal, and the domestic soybean meal price has soared from a low point of 1350 yuan/ton to 1850 yuan/ton. This policy has also led to an increase in domestic soybean prices. In May 2000, the contract price of Dalian soybean rose from 1.850 yuan/ton to 2,200 yuan/ton. Another example is1999165438+1October 10. The Sino-US trade delegation held talks in Beijing on China's accession to the World Trade Organization. As soon as the news came out, the price of Dalian soybean futures fell sharply for a week in a row. In May 2000, the contract price of soybean fell from 2240 yuan/ton to 2060 yuan/ton.
3) the impact of food policy
The European Union is the main import area of soybean in the world, and the change of its food policy will have a great impact on the world soybean market. At present, some EU countries, such as Germany and Britain, pay special attention to the import of genetically modified soybeans. Greenpeace in these countries thinks that genetically modified soybeans are harmful to human health and asks the government to formulate measures to restrict the import of such soybeans. If this grain policy is implemented, it will have an impact on the world soybean market.
4) International economic and trade organizations and their agreements In order to coordinate the economic interests among trading countries, many trading countries have established international or regional economic or trade organizations.
These international economic and trade organizations often adopt the same policies and measures to influence the supply and demand of commodities and commodity prices. The prices, supply and demand of international commodities such as oil, copper, sugar, wheat, cocoa, tin, tea and coffee are all controlled by relevant international economic and trade organizations and agreements. Therefore, futures price analysis must pay attention to the trends of relevant international economic and trade organizations.
When analyzing the influence of political factors on futures prices, it should be noted that different commodities are affected to different degrees. For example, when the international situation is tense, the impact on the price of strategic materials is greater than that on other commodities.
5. manipulation and speculation by large households.
1) big manipulation
Although the futures market is a "completely competitive" market, it is still inevitably manipulated and controlled by some powerful big households, resulting in speculative price fluctuations. The Hunt brothers, the American silver king, unfortunately failed to fry silver in the early stage of 1980, which is a typical example.
1979 At the beginning of this year, the Hunt brothers started trading in new york and Chicago, so they bought a lot of silver at the price of 6-7 dollars per ounce. By the end of the year, it has controlled 53% deposits in the New York Mercantile Exchange and 69% deposits in the CME, with 654.38+0.2 billion ounces of spot and 50 million ounces of futures. Under their control, the price of silver keeps rising. 1980 65438+1October 17, the price of silver rose to 48.7 USD/ounce, which was four times higher in half a year. Stimulated by the gold market, the price of silver reached a historical peak of $50.35 in June 5438+1October 265438+1October, which was more than eight times higher than that of a year ago. This crazy speculation leads to the disconnection between the market supply and demand of silver and the actual production and consumption, and the market price seriously deviates from its value, which will eventually plummet. At this time, in order to curb inflation, the U.S. government tightened monetary policy, the interest rate increased substantially, and futures speculators withdrew one after another, resulting in a sharp drop in silver prices. By the end of March, it had fallen to 10.8 USD/oz, which almost brought the silver market into a state of collapse. The hunting brothers lost hundreds of millions of dollars in this wave of speculation.
2) Speculative psychology
The purpose of speculators joining futures trading is to take advantage of the fluctuation of futures prices to make profits. So when to buy and sell mainly depends on his judgment on the trend of futures prices, that is, price expectations. He buys when the expected price rises, sells when the expected price falls, and waits and sees when the expected price consolidates. Speculators' price expectations are not only influenced by all kinds of information about futures price changes (basic factor analysis), but also by their judgments on current and historical price trends (technical analysis). Therefore, stimulated by favorable factors, people expect prices to rise and buy in succession, thus pushing prices up; The trend information of price increase further strengthens people's expectation of price increase, and people buy further, thus pushing the price up further. On the contrary, when prices fall, people expect prices to fall further and sell them in succession, thus pushing prices down further. It can be seen that price expectation and speculative psychology in futures trading have a strong role in fueling and aggravating futures price fluctuations.
The unprecedented storm in the gold market from 65438 to 0980 clearly reflects the influence of speculative psychology and price expectation on futures prices. The gold price in1979165438+10 was only about $400 per ounce, and by 1980 65438+ 10/it had soared to the historical peak of $838. There are many reasons for the surge: economically, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced a sharp increase in oil prices, and politically, the former Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan; Iran holds American hostages; The relationship between the United States and Iran deteriorated, and the United States frozen Iraq's assets in the United States. The speculative psychology caused by some big gold merchants' reckless driving up the price of gold is an important reason for the skyrocketing price of gold. When the price of gold reached its peak, it was rumored that the US government would auction a large amount of deposits in June 5438+10, which immediately reversed the speculators' psychology and rushed to sell gold futures. 65438+1On October 22nd, the price of gold fell 103 USD, and fell to 460 USD in March. In addition to economic and political factors, speculative psychological factors also played a huge role in the ups and downs of gold prices. In May, the turmoil in the gold market basically subsided, people's hearts turned weak and the price of gold was weak. Although there are some small factors that stimulate the rise of gold prices, they still fail to change people's psychological expectations and promote the recovery of gold prices. Therefore, when forecasting the price trend, we must analyze the psychological expectations of most traders in combination with various factors.
The above example has listed some main factors that affect futures prices, and the actual factors are much more complicated. In order to better predict the trend of futures prices and grasp the favorable trading opportunity, futures traders must pay attention to collecting accurate and detailed information about related factors in a timely and extensive manner; Comprehensive analysis of its possible impact, and pay attention to the comprehensive use of quantitative analysis tools and technical analysis methods.