First, the cost of nickel ore has the greatest impact on the price of nickel ore. As a resource material, the importance of nickel ore has been paid more and more attention. In the case of falling nickel price, foreign miners would rather sell less ore than significantly reduce the price of nickel ore. As the price of nickel rises, so does the nickel mine. When the price of nickel fell, the performance of nickel ore was relatively firm. The bottom of nickel price every time is characterized by a sharp drop in nickel ore trade. In the long run, nickel mines are still tight. As the main raw material for nickel smelting, high-grade nickel ore is difficult to obtain, which is beneficial to the construction of nickel price bottom.

Second, the demand for stainless steel will be the decisive factor of nickel price in the future; The largest area of nickel consumption in China is the stainless steel industry. As the main alloy material of stainless steel, the demand for nickel is also related to the expansion of stainless steel production capacity in China. The demand for stainless steel is related to the government's investment in new energy projects and future high-tech industries. With the total easing policy adopted by the government to solve the financial crisis, the banking system has released a lot of funds, which has stimulated the enthusiasm of investment projects in the steel industry. This brings new uncertainty to the trend of nickel price. In other words, the future trend of nickel price largely depends on the difficult game between monetary policy and economic situation. It can be said that the development of stainless steel industry depends entirely on the government's monetary policy and overall economic performance.

Third, judging from the world economic situation, the US economic recovery is far away; How deep is the European debt crisis in Europe?

Domestically, it is not a problem of economic recovery, but a dilemma of rising prices and monetary tightening; After the Wenzhou incident that lasted for one year, the monetary policy took a subtle turn.

On the whole, the downward trend of nickel price is restricted by the price of nickel ore, and the upward trend faces many uncertainties. It is optimistically estimated that China will restart the proactive monetary policy, and domestic investment in stainless steel production capacity will be guaranteed. In the next three to five years, China's stainless steel production capacity will usher in explosive growth. The recovery of the world economy has also restarted the stagnant demand for special steel. Pessimistically speaking, any relaxation of monetary policy will not bring about economic recovery, but will bring about irrational price increases, which will gradually lose the momentum of economic growth and the global economic situation may deteriorate further. Supported by the cost of nickel ore, nickel price may enter the bottom consolidation for a long time.